Win rate
96.5%
728 W / 26 L
Total PnL
$-49,467
realized $-1,058,443 · unrealized $1,008,977
Portfolio
$1,008,977
volume $32,301,894
Predictions
783
6.8/day · avg $41,254
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 13/10/2025 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 19/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 19/04/2026 |
| Qualified | no |
Category breakdown
Other 96% +$45,523
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Katana FDV above $50M one day after launch? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$189 | win |
| Katana FDV above $1B one day after launch? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | win |
| Trove FDV above $60M one day after launch? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$19 | win |
| Brevis FDV above $100M one day after launch? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$150 | win |
| Sentient FDV above $200M one day after launch? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$55 | win |
| Fogo FDV above $700M one day after launch? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Lighter FDV above $1B one day after launch? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$40 | win |
| Aztec FDV above $2B one day after launch? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | win |
| Zama FDV above $4B one day after launch? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Brevis FDV above $1B one day after launch? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
Politics 88% +$44,741
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$9,730 | win |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$243 | win |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | No | 87¢ | 92¢ | +$27,510 | win |
| Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from April 14 to April 21, 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Trump out as President by March 31? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$2,307 | win |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will Trump visit China by June 30? | Yes | 83¢ | 90¢ | +$2,941 | win |
| Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from March 3 to March 10, 2026? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will Trump say "China" during the State of the Union address? | Yes | 98¢ | 0¢ | $-162 | loss |
| Will any of Trump’s Greenland Tariffs go into effect by Feb 1? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$33 | win |
Economy 100% +$8,905
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? | Yes | 98¢ | 99¢ | +$675 | win |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1,812 | win |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | Yes | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$3,035 | win |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1,961 | win |
| No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? | Yes | 33¢ | 0¢ | +$22 | win |
Crypto 99% +$8,762
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Another crypto hack over $100m by December 31? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | win |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 19? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$193 | win |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 19? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$42 | win |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 18? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$345 | win |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 17? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$51 | win |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 17? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 16? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$55 | win |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 16? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$50 | win |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 15? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$50 | win |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 14? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$20 | win |
Tech 100% +$1,589
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over $180M committed to the Ranger public sale? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | win |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on January 31? | Yes | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$824 | win |
| Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on January 31? | Yes | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$82 | win |
| Will Jensen Huang say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 20+ times during NVIDIA keynote? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$130 | win |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | Yes | 89¢ | 100¢ | +$40 | win |
| Will The Fate of Ophelia by Taylor Swift be the #1 searched song on Google this year? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
Sports 100% +$1,102
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the United States win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$840 | win |
| Will Norway win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$225 | win |
| Will Anthropic’s Claude 4.5 Sonnet win the NOF1.ai competition? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | win |
Elections 100% +$566
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Another Canada election called in 2025? | No | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$401 | win |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$93 | win |
| Will Jay Jones win the 2025 Virginia Attorney General election? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will Mamdani get over 50% of the vote in the general mayoral election? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$66 | win |
| Will Andrew Cuomo win Staten Island? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
Culture 100% +$459
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Olivia Rodrigo release an album in 2025? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$364 | win |
| Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Donkey Kong Bananza win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Awards? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | win |
Mentions 96% $-19,833
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from April 18 to April 20, 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$21 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$32 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from April 9 to April 11, 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 9 to April 11, 2026? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | win |
Geopolitics 97% $-142,764
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US forces enter Iran by December 31? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$340 | win |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$67 | win |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | No | 88¢ | 91¢ | +$11,351 | win |
| Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? | Yes | 34¢ | 14¢ | $-492 | loss |
| US strikes Iran by March 11, 2026? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$29 | win |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$27 | win |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| US x Russia military clash by January 31, 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | win |
| Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? | No | 92¢ | 97¢ | +$622 | win |
| Russian strike on Poland by June 30? | No | 94¢ | 95¢ | +$22 | win |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 19? | Yes | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$193 | $156,518 | 19/04/2026 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 19? | No | 99.2¢ | 100¢ | +$257 | $33,973 | 19/04/2026 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 19? | No | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$42 | $31,575 | 19/04/2026 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 18? | Yes | 99.7¢ | 100¢ | +$345 | $107,440 | 18/04/2026 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$177 | $137,137 | 18/04/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$17 | $17,425 | 18/04/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026? | Yes | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | $11,129 | 18/04/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026? | No | 99.4¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $994 | 18/04/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $889 | 18/04/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $622 | 18/04/2026 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 17? | Yes | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$51 | $50,720 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? | No | 99.5¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | $1,731 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $7,236 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 17? | No | 99.6¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $996 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 16? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$55 | $50,945 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 16? | Yes | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$50 | $49,950 | 16/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | No | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$408 | $172,158 | 15/04/2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$76 | $67,381 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$71 | $7,000 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 15? | Yes | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$50 | $49,950 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026? | Yes | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$21 | $20,393 | 15/04/2026 |
| US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 15? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$20 | $19,980 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$19 | $19,318 | 15/04/2026 |
| JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 15? | Yes | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $4,467 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $1,229 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 14? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$50 | $49,950 | 14/04/2026 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 14? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$20 | $19,987 | 14/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 14, 2026? | Yes | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $740 | 14/04/2026 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 13? | No | 99.7¢ | 100¢ | +$270 | $87,157 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$126 | $105,605 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$32 | $32,445 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 13? | Yes | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $763 | 13/04/2026 |
| JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 12? | Yes | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $817 | 12/04/2026 |
| JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 11? | Yes | 97.5¢ | 100¢ | +$254 | $9,996 | 11/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 11, 2026? | Yes | 99.1¢ | 100¢ | +$103 | $11,674 | 11/04/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from April 9 to April 11, 2026? | No | 99.7¢ | 100¢ | +$30 | $9,970 | 11/04/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 9 to April 11, 2026? | No | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$19 | $11,090 | 11/04/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from April 9 to April 11, 2026? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | $9,448 | 11/04/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 9 to April 11, 2026? | Yes | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $3,579 | 11/04/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from April 9 to April 11, 2026? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $1,567 | 11/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? | No | 99.4¢ | 100¢ | +$612 | $95,137 | 10/04/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? | No | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | $4,990 | 10/04/2026 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 8? | Yes | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | $4,220 | 08/04/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from April 6 to April 8, 2026? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $4,464 | 08/04/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from April 6 to April 8, 2026? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $2,056 | 08/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | Yes | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$2,000 | $998,000 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? | No | 99.7¢ | 100¢ | +$60 | $19,940 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | $12,003 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $1,094 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from April 4 to April 6, 2026? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | $8,724 | 06/04/2026 |