Win rate
60.8%
192 W / 124 L
Total PnL
$556
realized $-699 · unrealized $1,256
Portfolio
$1,256
volume $246,833
Predictions
505
8.9/day · avg $489
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 12/11/2025 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Sports 100% +$560
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Coinbase run an Ad during Super Bowl LX? | Yes | 66¢ | 100¢ | +$560 | win |
Politics 57% +$220
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 10¢ | 10¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will Trump and Machado share the Nobel Peace Prize? | Yes | 67¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? | No | 74¢ | 84¢ | +$26 | win |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | No | 89¢ | 90¢ | $-7 | loss |
| Trump out as President before 2027? | No | 85¢ | 84¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | No | 82¢ | 92¢ | +$5 | win |
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026? | No | 82¢ | 96¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will Trump and Putin not meet? | Yes | 54¢ | 76¢ | +$11 | win |
| Will Trump visit China by April 30? | Yes | 60¢ | 1¢ | $-59 | loss |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? | No | 48¢ | 100¢ | +$22 | win |
Crypto 75% +$115
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 28¢ | 24¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | 28¢ | 44¢ | +$33 | win |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? | No | 86¢ | 90¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in January? | Yes | 16¢ | 100¢ | +$78 | win |
Other 54% +$98
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? | No | 67¢ | 84¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will the US capture Khamenei before 2027? | No | 89¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026? | No | 90¢ | 92¢ | $-1 | loss |
| US strike on Cuba by March 31? | Yes | 9¢ | 0¢ | $-10 | loss |
| Will the US strike Somalia next? | Yes | 68¢ | 0¢ | $-16 | loss |
| Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | Yes | 56¢ | 36¢ | $-25 | loss |
| Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? | No | 85¢ | 88¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? | Yes | 78¢ | 84¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | No | 86¢ | 49¢ | $-10 | loss |
| Viktor Orbán out by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 60¢ | 99¢ | +$8 | win |
Elections 50% $-61
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 27¢ | 19¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled? | Yes | 90¢ | 90¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Yes | 42¢ | 43¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | Yes | 71¢ | 64¢ | +$6 | win |
| Ukraine election called by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 6¢ | 0¢ | $-52 | loss |
Geopolitics 63% $-101
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027? | No | 81¢ | 0¢ | $-31 | loss |
| US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? | No | 63¢ | 86¢ | +$18 | win |
| Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | Yes | 9¢ | 0¢ | $-50 | loss |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | Yes | 54¢ | 100¢ | $-5 | loss |
| US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? | Yes | 25¢ | 14¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | 46¢ | 84¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? | No | 72¢ | 84¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | No | 4¢ | 0¢ | $-58 | loss |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | No | 89¢ | 91¢ | +$3 | win |
| US x Cuba military clash in 2026? | No | 51¢ | 55¢ | +$3 | win |
Culture 56% $-188
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will "Undertone" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 8m and 9m? | Yes | 35¢ | 0¢ | $-56 | loss |
| Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | 71¢ | 0¢ | $-317 | loss |
| Will "Scream 7" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 50m and 55m? | No | 89¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will "Scream 7" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 65m? | Yes | 63¢ | 0¢ | $-255 | loss |
| Will "Wuthering Heights" Third Weekend Box Office be between 6m and 7m? | No | 65¢ | 0¢ | $-65 | loss |
| Will "GOAT" Third Weekend Box Office be between 11m and 12m? | Yes | 80¢ | 0¢ | $-73 | loss |
| Will "How to Make a Killing" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 3.5m and 5m? | Yes | 24¢ | 0¢ | +$21 | win |
| Will "How to Make a Killing" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 3.5m? | Yes | 15¢ | 0¢ | $-47 | loss |
| Will "How to Make a Killing" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 3.5m? | No | 50¢ | 0¢ | $-268 | loss |
| Will "The Strangers - Chapter 3" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 3.5m and 5m? | No | 63¢ | 100¢ | +$134 | win |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | Yes | 23.3¢ | 91¢ | +$63 | $22 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | No | 64.8¢ | 99¢ | +$26 | $74 | 12/04/2026 |
| US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31? | No | 7.4¢ | 0¢ | +$56 | $54 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | No | 75.3¢ | 100¢ | +$42 | $560 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran first? | US | 26.9¢ | 50¢ | +$40 | $87 | 31/03/2026 |
| Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 52.0¢ | 100¢ | +$38 | $145 | 31/03/2026 |
| Hezbollah strike on Israel by March 31? | Yes | 27.0¢ | 100¢ | +$28 | $25 | 31/03/2026 |
| US forcibly removes Khamenei from power by March 31? | Yes | 15.8¢ | 0¢ | +$22 | $53 | 31/03/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? | No | 47.7¢ | 100¢ | +$22 | $35 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 8? | Yes | 15.3¢ | 100¢ | +$22 | $39 | 31/03/2026 |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31? | Yes | 12.6¢ | 0¢ | +$20 | $58 | 31/03/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by March 31, 2026? | No | 82.3¢ | 100¢ | +$17 | $117 | 31/03/2026 |
| France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? | Yes | 12.8¢ | 0¢ | +$14 | $38 | 31/03/2026 |
| Nothing Ever Happens: Khamenei | No | 59.4¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | $93 | 31/03/2026 |
| France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? | No | 74.5¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | $159 | 31/03/2026 |
| Houthi strike on Israel by March 15, 2026? | No | 64.1¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | $37 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran first? | Israel | 75.7¢ | 50¢ | +$12 | $69 | 31/03/2026 |
| Masoud Pezeshkian out by March 31? | No | 33.6¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | $37 | 31/03/2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | Yes | 26.0¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | $113 | 31/03/2026 |
| Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | No | 36.7¢ | 0¢ | +$10 | $86 | 31/03/2026 |
| Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by March 31? | Yes | 18.7¢ | 0¢ | +$10 | $38 | 31/03/2026 |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31? | No | 86.8¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $165 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? | No | 88.2¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $44 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? | No | 86.9¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $109 | 31/03/2026 |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31? | No | 77.0¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $23 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Hamas agree to disarm by March 31? | Yes | 22.7¢ | 0¢ | +$4 | $31 | 31/03/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | Yes | 28.6¢ | 0¢ | +$4 | $62 | 31/03/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 29.1¢ | 0¢ | +$4 | $22 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 3? | No | 70.8¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $32 | 31/03/2026 |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31? | Yes | 14.9¢ | 0¢ | +$3 | $35 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by March 4? | No | 90.0¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $27 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | Yes | 54.0¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $106 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will another country strike Iran by March 31? | No | 72.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $30 | 31/03/2026 |
| Israel strike on Damascus by March 31, 2026? | No | 85.4¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $30 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump meet with Putin by March 31, 2026? | No | 90.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $40 | 31/03/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | No | 64.5¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $188 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump cut off trade with Spain? | No | 86.0¢ | 100¢ | +$-0 | $26 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran close its airspace by February 28, 2026? | Yes | 9.1¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | $48 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by March 31? | No | 56.5¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | $23 | 31/03/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by March 15, 2026? | Yes | 17.3¢ | 0¢ | $-2 | $37 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump meet with Delcy Rodríguez by March 31? | Yes | 40.9¢ | 0¢ | $-3 | $28 | 31/03/2026 |
| Nothing Ever Happens: US Strike Edition | Yes | 38.0¢ | 0¢ | $-3 | $38 | 31/03/2026 |
| Hezbollah strike on Israel by March 31? | No | 26.1¢ | 0¢ | $-6 | $22 | 31/03/2026 |
| Nothing Ever Happens: US Strike Edition | No | 45.2¢ | 100¢ | $-6 | $52 | 31/03/2026 |
| Nothing Ever Happens: Khamenei | Yes | 56.5¢ | 0¢ | $-9 | $139 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | Yes | 12.0¢ | 0¢ | $-10 | $39 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the US next strike Iran on March 20, 2026 (ET)? | Yes | 3.1¢ | 0¢ | $-12 | $21 | 31/03/2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | No | 23.0¢ | 0¢ | $-17 | $102 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March? | No | 40.3¢ | 0¢ | $-19 | $40 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will another country strike Iran by March 7? | Yes | 63.9¢ | 0¢ | $-25 | $28 | 31/03/2026 |