Win rate
66.4%
251 W / 127 L
Total PnL
$10,188
realized $-22,278 · unrealized $32,466
Portfolio
$32,466
volume $2,450,705
Predictions
409
6.6/day · avg $5,992
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 02/03/2025 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Other 79% +$8,644
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zama FDV above $600M one day after launch? | Yes | 69¢ | 0¢ | +$32 | win |
| US strike on Mexico by December 31? | No | 73¢ | 78¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026? | Yes | 8¢ | 8¢ | +$12 | win |
| US strike on Mexico by January 31? | Yes | 9¢ | 0¢ | $-10 | loss |
| Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? | Yes | 46¢ | 15¢ | +$11 | win |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | Yes | 75¢ | 88¢ | +$464 | win |
| Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? | No | 84¢ | 85¢ | +$1 | win |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | Yes | 69¢ | 81¢ | +$583 | win |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | No | 76¢ | 46¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30? | Yes | 23¢ | 4¢ | $-24 | loss |
Geopolitics 63% +$1,642
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | Yes | 85¢ | 100¢ | +$4,302 | win |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? | No | 85¢ | 88¢ | +$24 | win |
| U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? | No | 73¢ | 91¢ | +$21 | win |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes | 34¢ | 22¢ | +$17 | win |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | Yes | 34¢ | 16¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | No | 58¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | — |
| US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | No | 55¢ | 17¢ | +$-0 | — |
| Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? | Yes | 42¢ | 16¢ | $-34 | loss |
| Iran Nuke before 2027? | Yes | 12¢ | 9¢ | $-42 | loss |
| Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027? | Yes | 49¢ | 28¢ | $-182 | loss |
Politics 64% +$486
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | Yes | 20¢ | 8¢ | +$14 | win |
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? | Yes | 39¢ | 16¢ | +$13 | win |
| Trump out as President before 2027? | Yes | 16¢ | 16¢ | +$6 | win |
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? | No | 58¢ | 84¢ | +$4 | win |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | No | 81¢ | 90¢ | +$4 | win |
| US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China? | Yes | 50¢ | 100¢ | +$65 | win |
| Will Trump and Putin meet next in South Korea? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April? | No | 36¢ | 34¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Trump visit China by April 30? | Yes | 69¢ | 1¢ | $-5 | loss |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | No | 83¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
Tech 80% +$331
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service by October 31? | No | 73¢ | 0¢ | $-568 | loss |
| Will GPT-5 be released by August 31? | Yes | 82¢ | 100¢ | +$290 | win |
| Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service by August 31? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will GPT-5 be released by July 31? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
Sports 50% +$136
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Another dildo thrown at WNBA game by August 10? | Yes | 64¢ | 100¢ | +$185 | win |
| Another dildo thrown at WNBA game by Friday? | Yes | 70¢ | 100¢ | $-48 | loss |
Finance 100% +$1
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Netflix close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026? | No | 75¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
Culture 0% $-14
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will 'Clair Obscur: Expedition 33' win Game of the Year in the 2025 Steam Awards? | Yes | 70¢ | 0¢ | $-14 | loss |
Economy 0% $-170
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houthis successfully target shipping by April 30? | Yes | 36¢ | 15¢ | $-95 | loss |
Elections 67% $-237
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 28¢ | 19¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Iran hold a presidential election by June 30? | No | 89¢ | 96¢ | +$6 | win |
| Ukraine election held by December 31, 2025? | Yes | 10¢ | 0¢ | $-14 | loss |
| Will Anca Alexandrescu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? | Yes | 10¢ | 0¢ | $-304 | loss |
| Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? | No | 49¢ | 0¢ | +$24 | win |
| Will Ciprian Ciucu finish third in the 2025 Bucharest mayoral by-election? | Yes | 12¢ | 0¢ | +$23 | win |
Crypto 91% $-924
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February? | Yes | 55¢ | 0¢ | +$20 | win |
| Will Meteora launch a token in 2025? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Infinex launch a token in 2025? | Yes | 36¢ | 0¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in November? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will Bitcoin reach $125K in September? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Ethereum reach $4800 in September? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Bitcoin reach $135K in August? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | win |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $100K in July? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$29 | win |
| Will MicroStrategy hold 620k+ BTC before August? | Yes | 70¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will MicroStrategy hold 620k+ BTC before August? | No | 22¢ | 0¢ | $-1,046 | loss |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | Yes | 46.6¢ | 100¢ | +$2,181 | $2,391 | 15/04/2026 |
| U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 15? | Yes | 4.5¢ | 0¢ | +$271 | $115 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 15, 2026? | No | 7.1¢ | 0¢ | +$41 | $263 | 15/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | Yes | 87.9¢ | 91¢ | +$0 | $2,632 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | No | 83.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $249 | 15/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | No | 51.9¢ | 9¢ | $-15 | $1,557 | 15/04/2026 |
| Houthis successfully target shipping by April 15? | Yes | 19.6¢ | 0¢ | $-74 | $150 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 27.9¢ | 0¢ | $-200 | $972 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | No | 76.5¢ | 0¢ | $-5,034 | $15,103 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 14, 2026? | Yes | 23.8¢ | 0¢ | $-48 | $216 | 14/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? | No | 69.9¢ | 100¢ | +$1,350 | $3,542 | 10/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? | Yes | 28.9¢ | 0¢ | +$555 | $1,164 | 10/04/2026 |
| JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10? | No | 68.9¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | $42 | 10/04/2026 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 10, 2026? | Yes | 13.1¢ | 0¢ | $-114 | $184 | 10/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | Yes | 20.8¢ | 100¢ | +$92 | $452 | 07/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | No | 49.9¢ | 9¢ | +$5 | $40 | 07/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | Yes | 88.0¢ | 91¢ | +$93 | $6,739 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 15? | Yes | 74.7¢ | 100¢ | +$1,688 | $7,054 | 31/03/2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | Yes | 98.0¢ | 100¢ | +$981 | $9,672 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | No | 90.5¢ | 100¢ | +$749 | $27,307 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 31? | Yes | 79.8¢ | 100¢ | +$674 | $3,754 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March? | Yes | 86.7¢ | 100¢ | +$205 | $1,313 | 31/03/2026 |
| US strikes Yemen by March 31, 2026? | No | 66.4¢ | 100¢ | +$173 | $356 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of March? | Yes | 81.6¢ | 100¢ | +$132 | $598 | 31/03/2026 |
| US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31? | No | 71.4¢ | 100¢ | +$111 | $3,216 | 31/03/2026 |
| US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31? | Yes | 48.0¢ | 100¢ | +$110 | $144 | 31/03/2026 |
| France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? | No | 89.0¢ | 100¢ | +$102 | $1,447 | 31/03/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | No | 86.5¢ | 100¢ | +$96 | $2,177 | 31/03/2026 |
| US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30? | No | 69.0¢ | 81¢ | +$91 | $690 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? | Yes | 59.0¢ | 100¢ | +$83 | $472 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will another country strike Iran by March 31? | No | 76.7¢ | 100¢ | +$76 | $1,150 | 31/03/2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | No | 23.0¢ | 0¢ | +$74 | $1,524 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran strike gulf oil facilities by March 31? | Yes | 60.0¢ | 100¢ | +$57 | $100 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 4? | No | 81.0¢ | 100¢ | +$47 | $200 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump visit China by May 31? | No | 21.0¢ | 12¢ | +$43 | $1,346 | 31/03/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by March 31, 2026? | No | 51.0¢ | 100¢ | +$25 | $78 | 31/03/2026 |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31? | No | 85.0¢ | 100¢ | +$24 | $500 | 31/03/2026 |
| Houthi strike on Israel by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 27.0¢ | 0¢ | +$9 | $27 | 31/03/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by March 15, 2026? | No | 81.0¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | $300 | 31/03/2026 |
| US announces military support of Iran opposition by March 31? | No | 24.0¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | $200 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | Yes | 38.8¢ | 0¢ | +$8 | $4,871 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? | No | 80.0¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $466 | 31/03/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 15th? | No | 45.9¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $213 | 31/03/2026 |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31? | No | 87.9¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $488 | 31/03/2026 |
| Houthi strike on Israel by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 48.0¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $25 | 31/03/2026 |
| US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by March 31? | No | 88.1¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $467 | 31/03/2026 |
| Houthi strike on Israel by March 15, 2026? | No | 88.0¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $88 | 31/03/2026 |
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by March 31, 2026? | No | 90.6¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $1,410 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $75 by end of March? | Yes | 94.3¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $195 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 24.0¢ | 12¢ | +$1 | $24 | 31/03/2026 |