Win rate
46.5%
85 W / 98 L
Total PnL
$-1,355
realized $-2,538 · unrealized $1,184
Portfolio
$1,184
volume $173,078
Predictions
467
12.5/day · avg $371
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 05/02/2026 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 18/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 18/04/2026 |
| Qualified | no |
Category breakdown
Crypto 67% +$346
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first? | $80k | 50¢ | 74¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | 93¢ | 94¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81 | Yes | 30¢ | 48¢ | $-9 | loss |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? | No | 56¢ | 59¢ | +$17 | win |
| Solana Up or Down on April 8? | Down | 3¢ | 0¢ | $-17 | loss |
| Ethereum Up or Down on April 5? | Down | 31¢ | 100¢ | +$321 | win |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? | No | 78¢ | 100¢ | +$33 | win |
| Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in March? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
Finance 60% +$63
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will SpaceX IPO by March 31, 2026? | No | 85¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| No one announced as next James Bond? | Yes | 68¢ | 66¢ | $-4 | loss |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 9? | Down | 85¢ | 100¢ | +$29 | win |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 5? | Down | 72¢ | 100¢ | +$64 | win |
| Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? | No | 30¢ | 30¢ | $-29 | loss |
Tech 75% +$61
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over $2M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? | Yes | 90¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will Big AI be out as #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 20? | Yes | 74¢ | 100¢ | +$57 | win |
| Will Claude by Anthropic be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 20? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Will Google Gemini score at least 55% on Humanity’s Last Exam? | No | 78¢ | 82¢ | +$2 | win |
Esports 56% +$25
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner | Vitality | 52¢ | 100¢ | $-9 | loss |
| Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group A | Natus Vincere | 43¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | win |
| Valorant: FURIA Esports vs BBL Esports - Map 2 Winner | BBL Esports | 62¢ | 0¢ | +$40 | win |
| Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 3DMAX - Map 2 Winner | 3DMAX | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Valorant: BBL Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Playoffs | NRG | 44¢ | 100¢ | +$84 | win |
| Valorant: Team Liquid vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Group Stage | Gentle Mates | 47¢ | 100¢ | +$26 | win |
| Valorant: Paper Rex vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Group Stage | NRG | 48¢ | 0¢ | $-34 | loss |
| Counter-Strike: paiN vs Passion UA (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1 | Passion UA | 58¢ | 0¢ | $-42 | loss |
| LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs | Top Esports | 48¢ | 0¢ | $-50 | loss |
Mentions 50% $-23
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 30 to April 1, 2026? | No | 83¢ | 0¢ | $-34 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? | No | 69¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? | No | 84¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
Sports 40% $-94
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | $-5 | loss |
| Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? | Yes | 84¢ | 96¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Lightning vs. Oilers: O/U 6.5 | Under | 45¢ | 0¢ | +$27 | win |
| UFC Fight Night: Roman Dolidze vs. Christian Leroy Duncan (Middleweight, Main Card) | Christian Leroy Duncan | 77¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | win |
| Bucks vs. Suns | Suns | 48¢ | 0¢ | $-40 | loss |
| Celtics vs. Cavaliers | Cavaliers | 45¢ | 0¢ | $-40 | loss |
| LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs | Bilibili Gaming | 74¢ | 100¢ | +$100 | win |
| LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON (BO5) - LCS Lock In Playoffs | LYON | 45¢ | 100¢ | +$23 | win |
| Grizzlies vs. Pacers | Pacers | 47¢ | 0¢ | $-34 | loss |
| UFC Fight Night: Michel Pereira vs. Zachary Reese (Middleweight, Main Card) | Reese | 40¢ | 0¢ | $-131 | loss |
Politics 40% $-215
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | No | 88¢ | 90¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | Yes | 94¢ | 100¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? | Yes | 46¢ | 40¢ | $-15 | loss |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | No | 78¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | win |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th? | Yes | 11¢ | 0¢ | $-13 | loss |
| Will Trump say "Mission Accomplished" during Address to the Nation? | No | 75¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Trump say "Regime Change" during Address to the Nation? | Yes | 64¢ | 100¢ | $-6 | loss |
| Will Trump declare war on Iran by February 28, 2026? | No | 91¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Trump out as President by March 31? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Trump say "Israel" or "Israeli" at the NRCC Dinner on March 25? | Yes | 72¢ | 0¢ | $-42 | loss |
Other 40% $-254
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GRVT FDV above $300M one day after launch? | No | 80¢ | 84¢ | $-20 | loss |
| US strike on Cuba by March 31? | No | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | win |
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | No | 75¢ | 76¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | Yes | 30¢ | 36¢ | $-3 | loss |
| US strike on Mexico by December 31? | Yes | 26¢ | 22¢ | $-10 | loss |
| Conservatives flip Liberals for Canada Seats Polls in 2026? | Yes | 32¢ | 25¢ | $-13 | loss |
| Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? | Yes | 94¢ | 95¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Netanyahu be pardoned by June 30? | No | 79¢ | 86¢ | $-118 | loss |
| GTA VI released before June 2026? | No | 97¢ | 99¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | No | 58¢ | 36¢ | $-55 | loss |
Elections 45% $-591
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 56¢ | 60¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | 56¢ | 62¢ | +$2 | win |
| Spain snap election called in 2026? | No | 70¢ | 78¢ | +$0 | win |
| Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? | No | 66¢ | 64¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 9%+? | No | 38¢ | 0¢ | $-257 | loss |
| Will Tisza win 130+ seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election? | No | 57¢ | 0¢ | $-269 | loss |
| Will the Social Democrats’ Popular Vote Margin of Victory in the 2026 Denmark Parliamentary Election be between 10% and 15%? | Yes | 90¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections? | Yes | 88¢ | 91¢ | $-63 | loss |
| Will the Freedom Movement (GS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election? | Yes | 84¢ | 100¢ | $-7 | loss |
| Will The Greens win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections? | Yes | 98¢ | 0¢ | $-3 | loss |
Geopolitics 46% $-595
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | No | 76¢ | 82¢ | +$1 | win |
| US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? | No | 30¢ | 0¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will Israel strike 2 countries in 2026? | No | 87¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | win |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? | Yes | 76¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | win |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | No | 58¢ | 0¢ | +$1 | win |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? | No | 68¢ | 33¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will Russia invade another country in 2026? | No | 86¢ | 86¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | No | 61¢ | 33¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 71¢ | 68¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Iran leadership change by March 13? | Yes | 2¢ | 0¢ | $-8 | loss |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? | No | 89.0¢ | 100¢ | +$22 | $182 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | No | 13.6¢ | 0¢ | +$10 | $85 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | No | 78.0¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | $97 | 15/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | No | 47.6¢ | 16¢ | $-2 | $134 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15? | No | 65.0¢ | 100¢ | $-3 | $99 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | Yes | 32.0¢ | 0¢ | $-6 | $38 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | Yes | 51.0¢ | 100¢ | $-34 | $123 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 47.8¢ | 0¢ | $-131 | $500 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 9%+? | No | 38.0¢ | 0¢ | $-257 | $500 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Tisza win 130+ seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election? | No | 57.0¢ | 0¢ | $-269 | $313 | 12/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 10? | Yes | 79.0¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | $90 | 10/04/2026 |
| Solana Up or Down on April 8? | Down | 3.0¢ | 0¢ | $-17 | $25 | 08/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | Yes | 45.2¢ | 84¢ | +$13 | $504 | 07/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th? | Yes | 11.0¢ | 0¢ | $-13 | $36 | 07/04/2026 |
| Ethereum Up or Down on April 5? | Down | 31.2¢ | 100¢ | +$321 | $266 | 05/04/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? | No | 78.0¢ | 100¢ | +$33 | $117 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Mission Accomplished" during Address to the Nation? | No | 75.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $46 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in March? | No | 98.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $24 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Regime Change" during Address to the Nation? | Yes | 63.8¢ | 100¢ | $-6 | $24 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 30 to April 1, 2026? | No | 83.0¢ | 0¢ | $-34 | $472 | 01/04/2026 |
| Miami Open: Terence Atmane vs Frances Tiafoe | Frances Tiafoe | 55.0¢ | 100¢ | +$117 | $142 | 31/03/2026 |
| Miami Open: Ugo Humbert vs Francisco Cerundolo | Francisco Cerundolo | 45.0¢ | 100¢ | +$59 | $138 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Big AI be out as #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 20? | Yes | 74.0¢ | 100¢ | +$57 | $161 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | No | 19.0¢ | 0¢ | +$34 | $43 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 20, 2026? | Yes | 90.0¢ | 100¢ | +$26 | $273 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? | No | 92.5¢ | 100¢ | +$19 | $319 | 31/03/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by March 31, 2026? | No | 90.6¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | $313 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? | No | 69.0¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | $70 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 19, 2026? | Yes | 23.8¢ | 0¢ | +$8 | $79 | 31/03/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? | No | 75.0¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | $196 | 31/03/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? | No | 90.6¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $245 | 31/03/2026 |
| US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by March 31? | No | 42.8¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $27 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel strike Gaza on March 8, 2026? | Yes | 82.5¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $24 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump declare war on Iran by February 28, 2026? | No | 90.7¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $33 | 31/03/2026 |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31? | No | 88.4¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $215 | 31/03/2026 |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? | No | 98.3¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $2,086 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Netanyahu visit NYC by March 31? | No | 95.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $23 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? | No | 84.6¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $36 | 31/03/2026 |
| Iran leadership change by March 31? | No | 76.3¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $56 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of March? | Yes | 32.5¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | $21 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | Yes | 77.9¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $24 | 31/03/2026 |
| Trump out as President by March 31? | No | 98.8¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $27 | 31/03/2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? | No | 86.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $126 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 19, 2026? | No | 68.9¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | $97 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? | No | 71.1¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | $24 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? | No | 92.0¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | $79 | 31/03/2026 |
| US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31? | No | 79.0¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | $60 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the DHS shutdown end after March 31, 2026? | No | 62.2¢ | 0¢ | $-6 | $41 | 31/03/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | No | 57.0¢ | 100¢ | $-10 | $43 | 31/03/2026 |
| Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by March 31, 2026? | No | 97.4¢ | 100¢ | $-12 | $67 | 31/03/2026 |