agentcal

Politics 73% +$32 $420 vol · 11 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 19, 2026?	No	43¢	38¢	+$23	win
Will Trump endorse an Israeli Ceasefire in Lebanon by April 30?	Yes	62¢	100¢	+$3	win
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 15, 2026?	Yes	12¢	0¢	$-6	loss
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?	Yes	44¢	50¢	+$5	win
Will Trump say "DoorDash" or "McDonald's" during No Tax on Tips Roundtable?	Yes	94¢	100¢	+$5	win
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?	No	79¢	100¢	+$3	win
Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 14, 2026?	Yes	14¢	0¢	$-12	loss
Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today?	Yes	37¢	100¢	$-1	loss
Will Trump say "April Fool" or "April Fool's" during Address to the Nation?	No	95¢	100¢	+$1	win
Will Trump visit China by May 31?	Yes	78¢	87¢	+$1	win

Crypto 75% +$2 $186 vol · 4 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Solana dip to $40 by December 31, 2026?	No	50¢	57¢	+$2	win
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in March?	No	100¢	100¢	+$0	win
Will Solana dip to $70 in March?	No	100¢	100¢	$-0	loss

Elections 0% $-4 $38 vol · 1 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	40¢	19¢	$-4	loss

Geopolitics 45% $-27 $2,271 vol · 31 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	79¢	82¢	$-1	loss
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	36¢	24¢	$-3	loss
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	Yes	84¢	100¢	+$4	win
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	No	57¢	82¢	+$10	win
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	Yes	39¢	74¢	+$6	win
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	No	27¢	6¢	+$2	win
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	No	94¢	96¢	$-1	loss
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	Yes	12¢	6¢	$-12	loss
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	53¢	67¢	$-1	loss
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	72¢	74¢	+$2	win

Other 40% $-63 $906 vol · 20 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch?	No	38¢	24¢	$-6	loss
USD.AI FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	77¢	37¢	$-4	loss
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?	No	88¢	96¢	+$1	win
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	68¢	12¢	$-12	loss
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	Yes	67¢	42¢	$-5	loss
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?	No	40¢	0¢	$-18	loss
Will Vance visit the Middle East by April 10?	No	41¢	100¢	+$44	win
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?	Yes	22¢	6¢	+$1	win
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?	No	81¢	94¢	$-4	loss
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	64¢	60¢	$-19	loss

Esports 50% $-108 $792 vol · 10 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
LoL: LYON vs Shopify Rebellion (BO3) - Esports World Cup North America Qualifier Playoffs	Shopify Rebellion	17¢	0¢	$-28	loss
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner	L1ga Team	38¢	0¢	$-127	loss
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs MOUZ (BO3) - DreamLeague Western Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs	MOUZ	63¢	0¢	$-91	loss
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner	Team Liquid	54¢	100¢	+$44	win
LoL: Solary vs Misa Esports - Game 1 Winner	Solary	50¢	0¢	$-94	loss
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Lynx - Game 1 Winner	Team Liquid	79¢	100¢	+$14	win
LoL: Solary vs Misa Esports - Game 4 Winner	Misa Esports	53¢	0¢	$-5	loss