Win rate
70.0%
21 W / 9 L
Total PnL
$301
realized $-547 · unrealized $849
Portfolio
$849
volume $11,240
Predictions
58
1.9/day · avg $194
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 09/12/2024 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Politics 67% +$152
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump be impeached before his term ends? | No | 32¢ | 36¢ | $-7 | loss |
| Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together before 2027? | No | 80¢ | 85¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Trump and Putin not meet? | Yes | 82¢ | 78¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 17, 2026? | No | 82¢ | 93¢ | +$7 | win |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026? | No | 70¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | win |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | Yes | 30¢ | 0¢ | $-15 | loss |
| Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 14, 2026? | No | 77¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | win |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th? | No | 82¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | win |
Geopolitics 80% +$65
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? | No | 88¢ | 92¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will Israel annex any territory by June 30? | No | 78¢ | 88¢ | +$2 | win |
| Israel strike on Yemen by May 31, 2026? | Yes | 74¢ | 22¢ | +$2 | win |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? | No | 55¢ | 55¢ | +$4 | win |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | No | 94¢ | 99¢ | +$4 | win |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | No | 59¢ | 55¢ | +$14 | win |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? | No | 52¢ | 45¢ | $-11 | loss |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? | No | 58¢ | 53¢ | $-5 | loss |
| Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 14, 2026? | No | 75¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | win |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026? | No | 70¢ | 92¢ | +$10 | win |
Tech 50% +$5
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.5 released by April 15, 2026? | No | 46¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | win |
| ChatGPT Outage by April 10? | No | 92¢ | 100¢ | $-2 | loss |
Other 0% $-1
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | No | 91¢ | 90¢ | $-1 | loss |
Recent Trades (31)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | No | 79.4¢ | 100¢ | +$105 | $691 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel military action against Yemen by April 15, 2026? | No | 50.0¢ | 100¢ | +$30 | $50 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026? | No | 70.0¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | $21 | 15/04/2026 |
| GPT-5.5 released by April 15, 2026? | No | 45.8¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $27 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | Yes | 30.0¢ | 0¢ | $-15 | $21 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 14, 2026? | No | 76.8¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | $38 | 14/04/2026 |
| JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10? | No | 80.3¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $48 | 10/04/2026 |
| ChatGPT Outage by April 10? | No | 91.7¢ | 100¢ | $-2 | $25 | 10/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th? | No | 82.2¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | $65 | 07/04/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | No | 88.0¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | $100 | 31/03/2026 |
| Internet Access restored in Iran by April 30, 2026? | No | 64.0¢ | 86¢ | +$20 | $128 | 14/03/2026 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026? | No | 70.0¢ | 92¢ | +$10 | $35 | 18/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? | No | 70.7¢ | 66¢ | $-8 | $106 | 21/04/2026 |
| Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 14, 2026? | No | 75.0¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $22 | 21/04/2026 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | No | 72.5¢ | 66¢ | $-34 | $508 | 22/04/2026 |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? | No | 52.2¢ | 45¢ | $-11 | $191 | 30/04/2026 |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? | No | 57.6¢ | 53¢ | $-5 | $259 | 30/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? | No | 48.5¢ | 48¢ | $-1 | $67 | 30/04/2026 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | No | 59.0¢ | 55¢ | +$14 | $165 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026? | No | 35.0¢ | 42¢ | +$12 | $35 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 17, 2026? | No | 81.8¢ | 93¢ | +$7 | $90 | 30/04/2026 |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? | No | 55.0¢ | 55¢ | +$4 | $55 | 30/04/2026 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | No | 94.2¢ | 99¢ | +$4 | $94 | 30/04/2026 |
| Israel strike on Yemen by May 31, 2026? | Yes | 73.8¢ | 22¢ | +$2 | $84 | 31/05/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? | No | 23.0¢ | 16¢ | +$22 | $50 | 30/06/2026 |
| Will Trump and Putin not meet? | Yes | 82.0¢ | 78¢ | +$6 | $181 | 30/06/2026 |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? | No | 88.0¢ | 92¢ | +$6 | $88 | 30/06/2026 |
| Will Israel annex any territory by June 30? | No | 77.8¢ | 88¢ | +$2 | $20 | 30/06/2026 |
| Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | No | 91.0¢ | 90¢ | $-1 | $30 | 10/10/2026 |
| Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together before 2027? | No | 80.0¢ | 85¢ | +$0 | $200 | 31/12/2026 |
| Will Trump be impeached before his term ends? | No | 31.7¢ | 36¢ | $-7 | $63 | 20/01/2029 |