Win rate
57.6%
76 W / 56 L
Total PnL
$254
realized $-464 · unrealized $718
Portfolio
$718
volume $109,930
Predictions
369
23.5/day · avg $298
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 31/03/2026 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Geopolitics 67% +$445
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | win |
| Iran leadership change by March 13? | No | 90¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | Yes | 85¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| US forces enter Iran by December 31? | Yes | 65¢ | 100¢ | $-14 | loss |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | Yes | 30¢ | 30¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | Yes | 35¢ | 69¢ | +$34 | win |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | 57¢ | 84¢ | +$11 | win |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 66¢ | 78¢ | +$30 | win |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? | Yes | 91¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
Politics 86% +$140
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 38¢ | 39¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will Donald Trump enter Iran by June 30? | No | 95¢ | 98¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Trump visit China by April 30? | No | 92¢ | 99¢ | +$54 | win |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? | Yes | 49¢ | 66¢ | $-5 | loss |
| Will Trump attend UFC 327? | Yes | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Trump talk to Mark Rutte in March? | No | 64¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | win |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? | No | 88¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March? | Yes | 59¢ | 0¢ | $-20 | loss |
| Will Trump say "Six Seven" this week? (March 29) | Yes | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from March 10 to March 17, 2026? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
Elections 100% +$3
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | No | 84¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
Weather 0% $-45
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northern Iowa Panthers vs. St. John's Red Storm | St. Johns Red Storm | 98¢ | 100¢ | $-45 | loss |
Crypto 12% $-136
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in March? | No | 65¢ | 0¢ | $-16 | loss |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET | Up | 21¢ | 0¢ | $-8 | loss |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET | Down | 7¢ | 0¢ | $-23 | loss |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on March 6? | No | 15¢ | 0¢ | $-34 | loss |
| Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in February? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
Other 37% $-377
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | No | 71¢ | 76¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will there be 5 or fewer US strikes on Somalia in March 2026? | No | 87¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| US strikes Iraq by March 7? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by March 31? | No | 81¢ | 100¢ | $-4 | loss |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | Yes | 49.0¢ | 91¢ | +$53 | $154 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | Yes | 97.9¢ | 100¢ | +$38 | $920 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | Yes | 13.1¢ | 0¢ | +$26 | $62 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | No | 90.0¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $73 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | No | 78.0¢ | 0¢ | $-3 | $32 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | No | 88.4¢ | 100¢ | $-15 | $193 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? | Yes | 94.0¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $98 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | No | 84.1¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $23 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Trump attend UFC 327? | Yes | 96.2¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $29 | 11/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? | Yes | 16.6¢ | 0¢ | +$46 | $134 | 10/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? | No | 97.8¢ | 100¢ | $-6 | $42 | 10/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | Yes | 99.7¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | $725 | 07/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | Yes | 45.2¢ | 91¢ | +$8 | $352 | 07/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | No | 50.5¢ | 9¢ | $-8 | $86 | 07/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | No | 26.4¢ | 0¢ | $-48 | $74 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will there be 5 or fewer US strikes on Somalia in March 2026? | No | 87.1¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $31 | 04/04/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in March? | No | 96.3¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | $44 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in March? | No | 64.6¢ | 0¢ | $-16 | $25 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 20, 2026? | Yes | 8.9¢ | 100¢ | +$399 | $50 | 31/03/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? | Yes | 15.0¢ | 0¢ | +$52 | $138 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | Yes | 98.8¢ | 100¢ | +$23 | $210 | 31/03/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 16.7¢ | 0¢ | +$18 | $40 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump talk to Mark Rutte in March? | No | 64.0¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | $24 | 31/03/2026 |
| Iran leadership change by March 31? | No | 66.6¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $32 | 31/03/2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? | No | 92.1¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $152 | 31/03/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | No | 88.1¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $214 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 28, 2026? | No | 84.9¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $31 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? | No | 90.3¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $104 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 23, 2026? | No | 93.6¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $39 | 31/03/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? | No | 88.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $54 | 31/03/2026 |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? | No | 96.6¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $90 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by March 7? | No | 94.4¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $36 | 31/03/2026 |
| Houthi strike on Israel by March 31, 2026? | No | 96.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $107 | 31/03/2026 |
| US strikes Iraq by March 7? | Yes | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $35 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | No | 88.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $26 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March? | Yes | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $55 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel strike Gaza on March 7, 2026? | Yes | 99.7¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $23 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 25, 2026? | Yes | 96.6¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | $20 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 8, 2026? | No | 98.8¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | $157 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 19, 2026? | No | 76.7¢ | 100¢ | $-3 | $65 | 31/03/2026 |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? | Yes | 1.2¢ | 0¢ | $-3 | $24 | 31/03/2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? | Yes | 14.0¢ | 0¢ | $-4 | $24 | 31/03/2026 |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by March 31? | No | 80.6¢ | 100¢ | $-4 | $22 | 31/03/2026 |
| US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31? | Yes | 13.3¢ | 0¢ | $-19 | $36 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March? | Yes | 58.6¢ | 0¢ | $-20 | $65 | 31/03/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by March 31, 2026? | No | 88.8¢ | 100¢ | $-29 | $103 | 31/03/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? | Yes | 12.1¢ | 0¢ | $-49 | $71 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 23, 2026? | Yes | 64.0¢ | 0¢ | $-79 | $103 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Six Seven" this week? (March 29) | Yes | 95.9¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $49 | 29/03/2026 |
| Will LaGuardia Airport (LGA) be open to departures by 2:00 PM ET on March 23, 2026? | No | 3.1¢ | 0¢ | $-35 | $35 | 23/03/2026 |