Win rate
69.8%
745 W / 323 L
Total PnL
$6,623
realized $-14,510 · unrealized $21,132
Portfolio
$21,132
volume $1,927,034
Predictions
1,316
11.3/day · avg $1,464
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 27/03/2025 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Other 75% +$2,996
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Opinion FDV above $1B one day after launch? | No | 74¢ | 100¢ | +$31 | win |
| Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch? | Yes | 78¢ | 100¢ | +$23 | win |
| Insurrection Act invoked by January 31? | No | 86¢ | 100¢ | +$54 | win |
| Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? | No | 77¢ | 84¢ | +$25 | win |
| Will the US strike Somalia next? | Yes | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will the US strike Somalia next? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | No | 82¢ | 82¢ | +$0 | win |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | Yes | 35¢ | 42¢ | +$0 | — |
| Starmer out by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 81¢ | 68¢ | $-208 | loss |
| Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | Yes | 13¢ | 8¢ | $-23 | loss |
Politics 74% +$1,524
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 2¢ | 2¢ | +$27 | win |
| Will Trump launch a coin by December 31? | No | 78¢ | 76¢ | $-16 | loss |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? | No | 31¢ | 100¢ | +$276 | win |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | No | 85¢ | 92¢ | +$45 | win |
| Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? | No | 86¢ | 92¢ | +$1 | win |
| Trump declassifies UFO files before 2027? | No | 35¢ | 0¢ | $-6 | loss |
| Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? | Yes | 14¢ | 0¢ | $-26 | loss |
| Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027? | No | 71¢ | 84¢ | +$44 | win |
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? | No | 68¢ | 84¢ | +$46 | win |
| U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "European Union" before 2027? | Yes | 25¢ | 10¢ | $-17 | loss |
Geopolitics 69% +$955
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 15, 2026? | No | 66¢ | 100¢ | $-22 | loss |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | No | 33¢ | 0¢ | $-285 | loss |
| Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 8¢ | 7¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026? | Yes | 53¢ | 0¢ | +$8 | win |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? | No | 68¢ | 26¢ | $-22 | loss |
| Will Sadegh Larijani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | Yes | 3¢ | 0¢ | $-96 | loss |
| US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | No | 66¢ | 18¢ | $-18 | loss |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 38¢ | 74¢ | +$58 | win |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | No | 54¢ | 25¢ | +$42 | win |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | No | 76¢ | 90¢ | +$32 | win |
Tech 75% +$828
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 62¢ | 62¢ | +$0 | win |
| Over $7M committed to the Hurupay public sale? | Yes | 11¢ | 0¢ | $-100 | loss |
| Over $50M committed to the Ranger public sale? | Yes | 89¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | win |
| Over $20M committed to the Paystream raise on MetaDAO? | No | 46¢ | 100¢ | +$73 | win |
| Over $100M committed to the Avici Raise on MetaDAO? | No | 61¢ | 100¢ | +$68 | win |
| Over $30M committed to the Loyal raise on MetaDAO? | Yes | 7¢ | 100¢ | +$67 | win |
| Over $10M committed to the ZKLSOL raise on MetaDAO? | No | 46¢ | 0¢ | +$41 | win |
| Over $20M committed to the Paystream raise on MetaDAO? | Yes | 56¢ | 0¢ | +$5 | win |
| Over $10M committed to the ZKLSOL raise on MetaDAO? | Yes | 57¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Over $100M committed to the Avici Raise on MetaDAO? | Yes | 12¢ | 0¢ | $-24 | loss |
Sports 61% +$594
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Yes | 41¢ | 46¢ | +$7 | win |
| Will Matthew Stafford win the 2025–26 NFL MVP award? | Yes | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$29 | win |
| Will CAR/CHI/JAX/SF/LAC/HOU win their 2026 NFL Wild Card round games? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Rams vs. Panthers | Panthers | 10¢ | 0¢ | +$10 | win |
| Magnus Carlsen wins both World Rapid & Blitz Championships? | Yes | 24¢ | 100¢ | +$85 | win |
| Spread: Bills (-2.5) | Eagles | 44¢ | 100¢ | +$28 | win |
| Spread: Buccaneers (-5.5) | Dolphins | 52¢ | 100¢ | +$24 | win |
| Giants vs. Raiders | Giants | 60¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | win |
| Patriots vs. Jets | Jets | 13¢ | 0¢ | $-20 | loss |
| Jaguars vs. Colts | Colts | 41¢ | 0¢ | $-25 | loss |
Elections 65% +$262
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? | Yes | 60¢ | 0¢ | $-69 | loss |
| Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? | No | 38¢ | 40¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? | No | 27¢ | 26¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Democrats 66 win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | Yes | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | win |
| Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | No | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$29 | win |
| Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | Yes | 11¢ | 16¢ | $-9 | loss |
| Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2026 Ohio Governor Republican primary election? | Yes | 80¢ | 97¢ | +$59 | win |
| Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win the most seats in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election? | No | 7¢ | 1¢ | $-32 | loss |
| Will Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 91¢ | 99¢ | +$20 | win |
| Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
Economy 70% +$156
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houthis successfully target shipping by April 15? | No | 72¢ | 100¢ | $-6 | loss |
| US recession in 2025? | No | 88¢ | 100¢ | +$121 | win |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | Yes | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | win |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? | No | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? | Yes | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | win |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? | No | 54¢ | 0¢ | $-19 | loss |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? | Yes | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Another successful Houthi attack on shipping in July? | Yes | 84¢ | 0¢ | $-24 | loss |
Finance 50% +$109
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027? | No | 35¢ | 5¢ | $-23 | loss |
| Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? | No | 32¢ | 30¢ | +$43 | win |
| Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 74¢ | 96¢ | +$140 | win |
| Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 73¢ | 70¢ | $-46 | loss |
| Will SOLV Energy, Inc.'s market cap be greater than $5.4B at market close on IPO day? | No | 67¢ | 0¢ | $-202 | loss |
| Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on October 21? | Down | 48¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Dow Jones (DJI) Up or Down on October 21? | Down | 48¢ | 0¢ | $-8 | loss |
| Bondi, Bongino or Patel out by July 18th? | No | 91¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will anyone say "Advertisement" during the Q2 2025 Netflix earnings call? | Yes | 28¢ | 0¢ | $-1 | loss |
Esports 100% +$41
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Counter-Strike: Passion UA vs M80 (BO3) | Passion UA | 46¢ | 100¢ | +$41 | win |
Mentions 75% $-1
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025? | No | 56¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025? | Yes | 53¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Elon tweet 320–334 times May 30–June 6? | No | 66¢ | 0¢ | $-6 | loss |
Weather 50% $-120
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will 1550 to 1599 tornadoes occur in the United States in 2025? | Yes | 86¢ | 100¢ | $-124 | loss |
| Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31? | No | 77¢ | 0¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Earthquake 7.0 or above by July 31? | Yes | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64–65°F on May 14? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
Culture 48% $-425
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Netflix acquire Warner Bros. Discovery? | Yes | 88¢ | 100¢ | +$23 | win |
| Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 200m? | Yes | 29¢ | 0¢ | $-59 | loss |
| Will Two People Exchanging Saliva win Best Live Action Short Film at the 98th Academy Awards? | No | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$196 | win |
| Will Wunmi Mosaku win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards? | No | 78¢ | 100¢ | +$110 | win |
| Will Sinners win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | 30¢ | 100¢ | +$105 | win |
| Will Sean Penn win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? | No | 63¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | 58¢ | 0¢ | $-49 | loss |
| Will Paul Thomas Anderson win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | 59¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? | No | 29¢ | 0¢ | $-63 | loss |
| Will KPop Demon Hunters win Best Animated Feature Film at the 98th Academy Awards? | No | 10¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | — |
Crypto 50% $-1,037
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Opinion launch a token by June 30, 2026? | No | 1¢ | 0¢ | $-63 | loss |
| Will Opinion launch a token by February 28, 2026? | Yes | 88¢ | 0¢ | $-484 | loss |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | 64¢ | 74¢ | +$16 | win |
| Blast Open Rotterdam 2026: Will a player break something during a game? | No | 85¢ | 100¢ | $-69 | loss |
| Blast Open Rotterdam 2026: Will a player break something during a game? | Yes | 51¢ | 0¢ | $-98 | loss |
| Australian Open Men's: Ethan Quinn vs Tallon Griekspoor | Griekspoor | 59¢ | 0¢ | $-30 | loss |
| Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2025? | No | 67¢ | 100¢ | +$34 | win |
| Will edgeX launch a token in 2025? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Over $1.4B committed to the MegaETH public sale? | Yes | 50¢ | 0¢ | $-78 | loss |
| Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? | No | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? | Yes | 88.3¢ | 100¢ | +$290 | $2,207 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026? | No | 75.3¢ | 100¢ | +$185 | $565 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15? | No | 69.0¢ | 100¢ | +$58 | $129 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | Yes | 12.6¢ | 100¢ | +$49 | $1,822 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | No | 71.0¢ | 100¢ | +$42 | $213 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | No | 90.9¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $546 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | Yes | 19.0¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | $154 | 15/04/2026 |
| Houthis successfully target shipping by April 15? | No | 72.0¢ | 100¢ | $-6 | $101 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 23.9¢ | 0¢ | $-127 | $1,787 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | No | 80.8¢ | 0¢ | $-828 | $2,693 | 15/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | Yes | 59.3¢ | 93¢ | +$330 | $2,049 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 14, 2026? | No | 79.7¢ | 100¢ | +$197 | $772 | 14/04/2026 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 12, 2026? | No | 85.5¢ | 100¢ | +$156 | $914 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | Yes | 2.1¢ | 0¢ | +$73 | $570 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 90.9¢ | 99¢ | +$20 | $713 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | No | 96.6¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $483 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 97.5¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $169 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | Yes | 94.0¢ | 99¢ | +$96 | $2,162 | 12/04/2026 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 10, 2026? | No | 96.2¢ | 100¢ | +$18 | $453 | 10/04/2026 |
| JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10? | Yes | 9.5¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | $23 | 10/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | Yes | 71.9¢ | 100¢ | +$1,929 | $13,923 | 07/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | No | 95.6¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | $239 | 07/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th? | Yes | 18.0¢ | 0¢ | $-6 | $76 | 07/04/2026 |
| Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-7.5) | Michigan Wolverines | 47.0¢ | 0¢ | $-16 | $750 | 07/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | Yes | 46.5¢ | 93¢ | +$1,984 | $2,845 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 200m? | Yes | 29.2¢ | 0¢ | $-59 | $61 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will Kanye release BULLY by April 3? | Yes | 60.0¢ | 100¢ | +$94 | $432 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Address to the Nation? | No | 97.7¢ | 100¢ | +$72 | $3,133 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Proxy" or "Hezbollah" during Address to the Nation? | Yes | 72.0¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | $36 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Address to the Nation? | Yes | 0.1¢ | 0¢ | $-150 | $150 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Polymarket mindshare hit 70%? | No | 9.7¢ | 0¢ | +$598 | $457 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump talk to Mark Rutte in March? | No | 66.6¢ | 100¢ | +$498 | $995 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 29, 2026? | No | 46.8¢ | 100¢ | +$389 | $342 | 31/03/2026 |
| 2026 U.S. Senate Election: Democrats flip Republicans by March 31? | Yes | 30.7¢ | 100¢ | +$347 | $154 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 23, 2026? | No | 39.4¢ | 100¢ | +$301 | $215 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 20, 2026? | Yes | 45.8¢ | 100¢ | +$227 | $192 | 31/03/2026 |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by March 31? | Yes | 39.5¢ | 0¢ | +$205 | $395 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March? | Yes | 0.4¢ | 0¢ | +$203 | $65 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the government shutdown last 1 day or more? | Yes | 78.9¢ | 100¢ | +$183 | $692 | 31/03/2026 |
| BitBoy convicted? | Yes | 42.1¢ | 0¢ | +$175 | $459 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6? | Yes | 11.0¢ | 0¢ | +$165 | $218 | 31/03/2026 |
| US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by March 31? | No | 34.3¢ | 100¢ | +$161 | $86 | 31/03/2026 |
| Masoud Pezeshkian out by March 31? | No | 20.0¢ | 100¢ | +$159 | $73 | 31/03/2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | Yes | 69.0¢ | 100¢ | +$158 | $483 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the government shutdown last 14 days or more? | No | 74.5¢ | 100¢ | +$156 | $456 | 31/03/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | No | 87.9¢ | 100¢ | +$140 | $1,223 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will another country strike Iran by March 31? | No | 76.5¢ | 100¢ | +$135 | $440 | 31/03/2026 |
| France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? | Yes | 25.8¢ | 0¢ | +$130 | $509 | 31/03/2026 |
| US/Israel strike on Fordow nuclear facility by March 31? | No | 57.8¢ | 100¢ | +$126 | $173 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 1? | No | 81.4¢ | 100¢ | +$99 | $692 | 31/03/2026 |