Toncar16

Geopolitics 60% +$38,870 $220,756 vol · 511 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?	No	23¢	100¢	+$386	win
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	Yes	59¢	0¢	$-32	loss
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	No	40¢	31¢	+$88	win
Will the US strike Iran next?	No	47¢	100¢	+$77	win
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	No	34¢	0¢	$-19	loss
Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027?	No	56¢	72¢	$-27	loss
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	No	4¢	0¢	$-83	loss
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?	Yes	19¢	9¢	$-220	loss
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	Yes	39¢	74¢	+$145	win
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?	No	16¢	74¢	$-32	loss

Other 69% +$19,024 $78,504 vol · 291 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will the US strike Somalia next?	Yes	39¢	100¢	+$303	win
Will the US strike Somalia next?	Yes	61¢	100¢	+$115	win
Will the US strike Yemen next?	No	27¢	100¢	+$111	win
Will the US strike Somalia next?	No	22¢	0¢	+$49	win
Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by March 31, 2026?	Yes	16¢	0¢	$-1	loss
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?	No	40¢	34¢	+$0	win
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by March 31?	Yes	1¢	0¢	+$-0	loss
Will the US strike Syria next?	Yes	1¢	0¢	$-72	loss
Maduro out by December 31, 2026?	No	5¢	0¢	$-263	loss
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?	No	48¢	64¢	+$553	win

Politics 62% +$15,452 $76,305 vol · 358 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Trump declassifies UFO files before 2027?	No	14¢	0¢	+$437	win
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	Yes	36¢	100¢	+$43	win
Will Trump meet with Aleksandr Lukashenko in 2026?	Yes	21¢	32¢	+$72	win
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?	No	51¢	100¢	+$44	win
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together before 2027?	Yes	20¢	15¢	+$5	win
Will Donald Trump visit Japan in 2026?	Yes	52¢	48¢	$-11	loss
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?	Yes	33¢	0¢	$-12	loss
Will Trump's approval rating hit 44% in 2026?	No	68¢	86¢	$-39	loss
Will Trump and Machado share the Nobel Peace Prize?	No	17¢	0¢	$-67	loss
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 15, 2026?	Yes	11¢	0¢	$-16	loss

Elections 60% +$6,537 $11,204 vol · 35 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	1¢	1¢	$-16	loss
Will the Emmanuel Grégoire List win the most citywide list votes in the runoff of the 2026 Paris municipal election by 10–15%?	Yes	72¢	0¢	+$132	win
Will Jeanne Barseghian be the next mayor of Strasbourg?	Yes	85¢	0¢	+$12	win
Will Jeanne Barseghian be the next mayor of Strasbourg?	No	17¢	100¢	+$1,410	win
Will Jean-Michel Aulas win the 2026 Lyon mayoral election?	No	20¢	100¢	$-21	loss
Will the Emmanuel Grégoire List win the most citywide list votes in the runoff of the 2026 Paris municipal election by <5%?	No	44¢	100¢	+$47	win
Will Grégory Doucet win the 2026 Lyon mayoral election?	Yes	67¢	100¢	+$15	win
Will Sarah Knafo advance to the second round of the 2026 Paris municipal election?	Yes	66¢	0¢	$-139	loss
Will Sophia Chikirou advance to the second round of the 2026 Paris municipal election?	No	13¢	0¢	$-9	loss
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?	Yes	4¢	0¢	+$39	win

Economy 89% +$1,220 $2,235 vol · 9 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Houthis successfully target shipping by April 15?	Yes	26¢	0¢	+$36	win
US recession in 2025?	No	62¢	100¢	+$15	win
Successful Houthi attack on shipping by September 30?	No	28¢	0¢	+$29	win
Another successful Houthi attack on shipping in July?	No	11¢	100¢	+$881	win
Another successful Houthi attack on shipping in July?	Yes	40¢	0¢	+$52	win
Negative GDP growth in Q2 2025?	No	32¢	100¢	+$67	win
Houthis agree to end attacks on shipping before June?	No	30¢	0¢	+$93	win
Houthis agree to end attacks on shipping before May?	Yes	12¢	0¢	$-10	loss

Mentions 100% +$360 $199 vol · 1 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026?	Yes	26¢	100¢	+$360	win

Weather 67% +$273 $385 vol · 3 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 4?	Yes	26¢	100¢	+$272	win
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by September 30?	Yes	56¢	100¢	$-9	loss
Will Palisades wildfire spread to Santa Monica by Sunday?	No	67¢	100¢	+$10	win

Tech 67% +$122 $1,167 vol · 6 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
GPT-5.3 released by March 8, 2026?	Yes	90¢	100¢	+$65	win
Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?	No	56¢	100¢	$-2	loss
Any Tesla arsonist found guilty in 2025?	No	9¢	0¢	$-9	loss
Will OpenAI release an open source model before July?	No	22¢	100¢	+$28	win
Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service before July?	Yes	11¢	0¢	+$12	win
Google Maps renames it "Gulf of America" before March?	No	28¢	0¢	+$27	win

Finance 50% +$71 $234 vol · 4 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	65¢	72¢	+$6	win
Will Hooters file for bankruptcy before June?	No	16¢	0¢	+$101	win
Will FBI send Pam Bondi the full Epstein files by Friday?	Yes	15¢	0¢	$-25	loss
Will Netflix close Warner Bros acquisition?	No	62¢	99¢	$-11	loss

Esports 0% $-10 $21 vol · 1 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Kai and Speed win Fortnite before Monday?	Yes	26¢	0¢	$-10	loss

Crypto 54% $-27 $2,410 vol · 13 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31?	Yes	22¢	100¢	+$200	win
Texas Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Act (H.B. 1598) signed in 2025?	Yes	63¢	0¢	$-2	loss
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 2, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET	Down	16¢	0¢	$-22	loss
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 2, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET	Down	26¢	0¢	$-26	loss
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 2, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET	Down	26¢	0¢	$-40	loss
Will the IRS "Broker DeFi Rule" be removed before August?	No	2¢	0¢	$-31	loss
Will Metaplanet hold 10k+ BTC before July?	Yes	79¢	100¢	+$2	win
Will MicroStrategy hold 600k+ BTC before June?	No	64¢	100¢	+$34	win
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?	Yes	95¢	100¢	+$2	win
Will MicroStrategy hold 550k+ BTC before May?	No	42¢	0¢	$-225	loss

Sports 0% $-90 $102 vol · 2 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Eric Perrot (FRA) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Biathlon - Men's 15km Mass Start at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?	Yes	31¢	0¢	$-82	loss

Culture 50% $-377 $1,018 vol · 7 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Teyana Taylor win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	26¢	0¢	$-4	loss
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	32¢	0¢	+$0	—
Will "The Conjuring: Last Rites" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $52m and $57m?	Yes	9¢	0¢	+$9	win
Will "The Conjuring: Last Rites" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $80m?	No	3¢	0¢	$-30	loss
Will "The Conjuring: Last Rites" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $67m?	No	11¢	0¢	$-492	loss
Will "Conclave" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?	Yes	21¢	0¢	+$15	win