Win rate
76.8%
43 W / 13 L
Total PnL
$448
realized $-13,198 · unrealized $13,646
Portfolio
$13,646
volume $39,914
Predictions
98
1.9/day · avg $407
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 19/11/2024 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 18/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 18/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Other 80% +$142
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Dick Schoof be the next leader out before 2027? | Yes | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$72 | win |
| Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | Yes | 13¢ | 20¢ | +$99 | win |
| Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? | No | 96¢ | 97¢ | +$9 | win |
| Anthropic CEO arrested? | No | 95¢ | 98¢ | +$2 | win |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | No | 75¢ | 76¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | Yes | 99¢ | 99¢ | $-8 | loss |
| Maduro exiled to Qatar by March 31? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | win |
| ICE Shooter fired/resigns by March 31? | No | 90¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? | No | 94¢ | 100¢ | $-31 | loss |
Finance 80% +$104
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy before 2027? | No | 91¢ | 92¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will Carvana announce bankruptcy before 2027? | No | 89¢ | 88¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will Ubisoft announce bankruptcy by June 30? | No | 95¢ | 98¢ | +$93 | win |
| Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 95¢ | 96¢ | +$3 | win |
| S&P 500 all time high by March 31, 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
Politics 92% +$89
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump out as President before 2027? | No | 83¢ | 84¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Kamala Harris announce a Presidential run before 2027? | No | 83¢ | 82¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Trump out as President by March 31? | No | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will the Climate fund initiative be approved in Switzerland’s 8 March 2026 popular vote? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in January 2026? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will anyone audibly fart during Trump's WEF 2026 speech? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | win |
| Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Trump removes income tax on individuals making <$150k? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Trump EO easing access or decriminalizing weed by Friday? | Yes | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$47 | win |
| Will Trump issue a Gold Card before June? | No | 70¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | win |
Geopolitics 80% +$74
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | No | 88¢ | 91¢ | +$7 | win |
| Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? | No | 93¢ | 98¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 98¢ | 88¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will the US officially declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$58 | win |
| Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Iran strike on US military by February 28? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will France, UK or Germany strike Iran by January 31? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Austria join NATO by December 31? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Nuclear weapon detonation in 2025? | No | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
Elections 50% +$27
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 18¢ | 19¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Venezuela election scheduled by January 31, 2026? | No | 86¢ | 100¢ | +$28 | win |
Sports 50% +$13
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 98¢ | 98¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 5¢ | 5¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 74¢ | 74¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 55¢ | 52¢ | $-3 | loss |
Crypto 100% +$9
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin in 2025? | No | 88¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | win |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | Yes | 98.9¢ | 99¢ | $-8 | $2,737 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the US officially declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026? | No | 98.4¢ | 100¢ | +$58 | $3,628 | 31/03/2026 |
| Venezuela election scheduled by January 31, 2026? | No | 86.0¢ | 100¢ | +$28 | $200 | 31/03/2026 |
| Maduro exiled to Qatar by March 31? | No | 98.9¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | $695 | 31/03/2026 |
| ICE Shooter fired/resigns by March 31? | No | 90.0¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $45 | 31/03/2026 |
| S&P 500 all time high by March 31, 2026? | No | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $1,954 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $40 by end of March? | No | 98.6¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $197 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? | No | 96.4¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $48 | 31/03/2026 |
| Trump out as President by March 31? | No | 94.2¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $177 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? | No | 93.6¢ | 100¢ | $-31 | $232 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the Climate fund initiative be approved in Switzerland’s 8 March 2026 popular vote? | No | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $575 | 08/03/2026 |
| Another US bank failure by February 28? | No | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $1,527 | 28/02/2026 |
| Iran strike on US military by February 28? | Yes | 98.5¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $134 | 28/02/2026 |
| Another US strike on Venezuela by January 10? | No | 94.7¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $56 | 31/01/2026 |
| Another US strike on Venezuela by January 17? | No | 87.7¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $26 | 31/01/2026 |
| Will Trump meet with Kaja Kallas in January 2026? | No | 97.0¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $82 | 31/01/2026 |
| Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in January 2026? | No | 99.2¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $37 | 31/01/2026 |
| Will France, UK or Germany strike Iran by January 31? | No | 96.3¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | $105 | 31/01/2026 |
| Will anyone audibly fart during Trump's WEF 2026 speech? | No | 96.6¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | $329 | 21/01/2026 |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin in 2025? | No | 87.9¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | $95 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Austria join NATO by December 31? | No | 98.4¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $341 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Trump pardon Derek Chauvin in 2025? | No | 94.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $40 | 31/12/2025 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? | No | 97.4¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $49 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? | No | 98.2¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $70 | 31/12/2025 |
| Trump removes income tax on individuals making <$150k? | No | 97.2¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $35 | 31/12/2025 |
| Nuclear weapon detonation in 2025? | No | 92.9¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $78 | 31/12/2025 |
| Trump EO easing access or decriminalizing weed by Friday? | Yes | 96.2¢ | 100¢ | +$47 | $1,196 | 19/12/2025 |
| Will Trump issue a Gold Card before June? | No | 69.9¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | $25 | 31/05/2025 |
| US-China trade deal before June? | No | 78.4¢ | 0¢ | $-25 | $25 | 31/05/2025 |
| Will Trump sell 0 Gold Cards in 2025? | Yes | 92.8¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $48 | 01/01/1970 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | No | 75.0¢ | 76¢ | +$1 | $22 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 74.0¢ | 74¢ | +$0 | $96 | 27/06/2026 |
| Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 54.8¢ | 52¢ | $-3 | $70 | 27/06/2026 |
| Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 97.5¢ | 88¢ | $-1 | $49 | 27/06/2026 |
| Will Ubisoft announce bankruptcy by June 30? | No | 94.9¢ | 98¢ | +$93 | $2,618 | 30/06/2026 |
| Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 95.4¢ | 96¢ | +$3 | $508 | 30/06/2026 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? | No | 92.7¢ | 98¢ | +$2 | $29 | 30/06/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? | No | 96.3¢ | 97¢ | +$9 | $482 | 30/06/2026 |
| Anthropic CEO arrested? | No | 95.0¢ | 98¢ | +$2 | $119 | 30/06/2026 |
| Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 97.8¢ | 98¢ | +$8 | $5,216 | 20/07/2026 |
| Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 98.2¢ | 98¢ | +$1 | $697 | 20/07/2026 |
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 11.5¢ | 11¢ | $-3 | $57 | 20/07/2026 |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 9.1¢ | 9¢ | $-2 | $45 | 20/07/2026 |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 15.9¢ | 16¢ | +$2 | $82 | 20/07/2026 |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 13.8¢ | 16¢ | +$10 | $66 | 20/07/2026 |
| Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 8.6¢ | 9¢ | $-0 | $41 | 20/07/2026 |
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 7.0¢ | 7¢ | +$0 | $33 | 20/07/2026 |
| Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 5.4¢ | 5¢ | $-1 | $26 | 20/07/2026 |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | Yes | 12.7¢ | 20¢ | +$99 | $184 | 31/12/2026 |
| Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy before 2027? | No | 90.9¢ | 92¢ | +$5 | $456 | 31/12/2026 |