Win rate
69.9%
188 W / 81 L
Total PnL
$1,516
realized $-256 · unrealized $1,772
Portfolio
$1,772
volume $124,174
Predictions
3,721
54.4/day · avg $33
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 26/11/2025 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Other 74% +$476
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ole Gunnar Solskjær be appointed as manager of Manchester United? | No | 65¢ | 97¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? | No | 74¢ | 84¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will the US strike Somalia next? | Yes | 62¢ | 0¢ | $-11 | loss |
| Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? | Yes | 57¢ | 68¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? | No | 41¢ | 96¢ | +$9 | win |
| Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? | No | 61¢ | 64¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | Yes | 22¢ | 40¢ | +$16 | win |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | No | 61¢ | 55¢ | $-5 | loss |
| Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by April 30, 2026? | No | 79¢ | 96¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will the Virginia redistricting referendum pass? | Yes | 76¢ | 85¢ | +$2 | win |
Geopolitics 71% +$227
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? | Yes | 49¢ | 100¢ | +$30 | win |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | No | 28¢ | 0¢ | $-20 | loss |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | Yes | 39¢ | 16¢ | +$0 | win |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? | Yes | 41¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | win |
| Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by June 30? | No | 73¢ | 78¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | No | 67¢ | 94¢ | +$11 | win |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | No | 88¢ | 72¢ | $-1 | loss |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 50¢ | 80¢ | +$18 | win |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | Yes | 66¢ | 100¢ | +$18 | win |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | No | 86¢ | 99¢ | +$3 | win |
Culture 92% +$119
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bad Bunny be the top Spotify artist for 2026? | No | 33¢ | 28¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will "You, Me & Tuscany" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 8m and 9m? | Yes | 60¢ | 0¢ | $-18 | loss |
| Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 70m? | Yes | 62¢ | 100¢ | +$18 | win |
| Will "You, Me & Tuscany" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 8m? | No | 63¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 180m and 190m? | Yes | 50¢ | 0¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 200m? | No | 55¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will "They Will Kill You" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 5m? | Yes | 65¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | win |
| Will "Hoppers" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 16.5m and 18m? | Yes | 53¢ | 100¢ | +$20 | win |
| Will "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 80m and 85m? | Yes | 52¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will "How to Make a Killing" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 3.5m? | Yes | 68¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | win |
Politics 73% +$100
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 33¢ | 27¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? | No | 54¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | Yes | 38¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? | No | 89¢ | 88¢ | +$0 | — |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? | Yes | 51¢ | 56¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will Trump post "Make Iran Great Again" or "MIGA" on Truth Social this week? | No | 86¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will JD Vance say "Trump" during meetings with Orbán? | Yes | 86¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will Trump say "Moon" during Monday news conference? | No | 77¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will Trump say "Eight War" during the White House Easter Egg Roll? | No | 87¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Trump say "Gay" this week? (April 5) | No | 83¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
Crypto 73% +$99
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 38¢ | 40¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026? | No | 19¢ | 50¢ | +$80 | win |
| Will Bitcoin hit $80k or $100k first? | 80k | 54¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | win |
| Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 32¢ | 44¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | 48¢ | 64¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will Solana reach $100 in March? | No | 63¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | win |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March? | Yes | 57¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | win |
| Will Melania say "Intelligence" during Fostering the Future Together event on March 24? | Yes | 69¢ | 0¢ | $-21 | loss |
| Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in February? | Yes | 8¢ | 0¢ | +$14 | win |
| Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February? | Yes | 29¢ | 0¢ | $-33 | loss |
Mentions 83% +$76
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? | Yes | 25¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? | No | 65¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? | No | 48¢ | 100¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 30 to April 1, 2026? | No | 59¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 28 to March 30, 2026? | Yes | 15¢ | 0¢ | +$22 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 28 to March 30, 2026? | No | 83¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 21 to March 23, 2026? | No | 77¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? | No | 19¢ | 0¢ | $-11 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026? | No | 77¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | win |
Tech 100% +$7
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by June 30? | Yes | 68¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
Elections 56% +$3
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? | No | 61¢ | 64¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Matt Claman advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election? | No | 78¢ | 72¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 58¢ | 34¢ | $-4 | loss |
| Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | Yes | 78¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | win |
| Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 18%+? | No | 88¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 66¢ | 84¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections? | Yes | 57¢ | 100¢ | +$21 | win |
| Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections? | Yes | 62¢ | 100¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will People’s Party (PPLE) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election? | Yes | 56¢ | 0¢ | $-22 | loss |
Esports 0% $-20
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Playoffs | Vitality | 67¢ | 0¢ | $-20 | loss |
Sports 55% $-249
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warriors vs. Clippers | Clippers | 66¢ | 0¢ | $-19 | loss |
| Pelicans vs. Timberwolves | Timberwolves | 75¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Warriors vs. Clippers | Warriors | 27¢ | 0¢ | $-10 | loss |
| Thunder vs. Nuggets | Nuggets | 66¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Warriors vs. Kings | Warriors | 64¢ | 0¢ | $-5 | loss |
| Cavaliers vs. Hawks | Hawks | 75¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Celtics vs. Knicks | Celtics | 33¢ | 0¢ | $-6 | loss |
| Will Mark Rutte say "Conflict" during his speech on April 9? | Yes | 69¢ | 0¢ | $-21 | loss |
| Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets | Nuggets | 48¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Pelicans vs. Trail Blazers | Trail Blazers | 68¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warriors vs. Clippers | Clippers | 66.3¢ | 0¢ | $-19 | $27 | 16/04/2026 |
| FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 4.5 | Under | 55.0¢ | 0¢ | $-28 | $28 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-14? | No | 58.0¢ | 100¢ | +$17 | $23 | 14/04/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? | Yes | 25.1¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | $20 | 14/04/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? | No | 92.3¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $56 | 14/04/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? | No | 65.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $26 | 14/04/2026 |
| Will "You, Me & Tuscany" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 8m? | Yes | 70.6¢ | 100¢ | +$28 | $87 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 70m? | Yes | 62.5¢ | 100¢ | +$18 | $44 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will "You, Me & Tuscany" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 11m? | No | 85.7¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $67 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will "You, Me & Tuscany" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 10m and 11m? | No | 83.2¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $47 | 13/04/2026 |
| Pelicans vs. Timberwolves | Timberwolves | 75.2¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $30 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will "You, Me & Tuscany" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 8m? | No | 63.0¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | $46 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will "You, Me & Tuscany" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 8m and 9m? | Yes | 59.7¢ | 0¢ | $-18 | $48 | 13/04/2026 |
| Warriors vs. Clippers | Warriors | 26.6¢ | 0¢ | $-10 | $21 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | Yes | 77.5¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | $31 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Trump post "Make Iran Great Again" or "MIGA" on Truth Social this week? | No | 85.6¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $21 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 18%+? | No | 88.3¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $25 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | No | 37.5¢ | 1¢ | $-6 | $22 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 65.8¢ | 84¢ | +$1 | $30 | 12/04/2026 |
| Harry Kane: Anytime Goalscorer | No | 54.0¢ | 100¢ | +$18 | $22 | 11/04/2026 |
| Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-11? | Yes | 70.0¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $21 | 11/04/2026 |
| Thunder vs. Nuggets | Nuggets | 66.1¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $33 | 11/04/2026 |
| Warriors vs. Kings | Warriors | 64.5¢ | 0¢ | $-5 | $26 | 11/04/2026 |
| Real Madrid CF vs. Girona FC: O/U 3.5 | Under | 47.9¢ | 100¢ | +$24 | $38 | 10/04/2026 |
| Cavaliers vs. Hawks | Hawks | 74.8¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $22 | 10/04/2026 |
| Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-10? | Yes | 73.2¢ | 0¢ | $-15 | $22 | 10/04/2026 |
| FC Augsburg vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 3.5 | Under | 40.8¢ | 0¢ | $-25 | $29 | 10/04/2026 |
| Will Melania say "NATO" during statement on April 9? | No | 86.0¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $26 | 09/04/2026 |
| Celtics vs. Knicks | Celtics | 32.8¢ | 0¢ | $-6 | $26 | 09/04/2026 |
| Will Mark Rutte say "Conflict" during his speech on April 9? | Yes | 68.7¢ | 0¢ | $-21 | $21 | 09/04/2026 |
| Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-04-09? | No | 48.4¢ | 0¢ | $-22 | $29 | 09/04/2026 |
| Will Melania say "School" during statement on April 9? | Yes | 31.4¢ | 0¢ | $-31 | $31 | 09/04/2026 |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? | Yes | 53.5¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | $21 | 08/04/2026 |
| Will JD Vance say "Trump" during meetings with Orbán? | Yes | 86.2¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $40 | 08/04/2026 |
| Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets | Nuggets | 47.9¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $24 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 190m and 200m? | Yes | 42.2¢ | 100¢ | +$23 | $30 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Moon" during Monday news conference? | No | 76.8¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $20 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 200m? | No | 55.3¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $22 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Eight War" during the White House Easter Egg Roll? | No | 86.6¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $23 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 180m and 190m? | Yes | 50.4¢ | 0¢ | +$1 | $26 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Gay" this week? (April 5) | No | 83.1¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $28 | 05/04/2026 |
| Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-04? | Yes | 65.6¢ | 100¢ | +$17 | $33 | 04/04/2026 |
| Pelicans vs. Trail Blazers | Trail Blazers | 68.0¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $20 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? | No | 48.3¢ | 100¢ | $-2 | $34 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Regime Change" during Address to the Nation? | Yes | 51.7¢ | 100¢ | +$19 | $21 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Solana reach $100 in March? | No | 63.3¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | $25 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 30 to April 1, 2026? | No | 25.6¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | $23 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in March? | Yes | 71.7¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | $43 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March? | Yes | 56.6¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | $28 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 30 to April 1, 2026? | No | 59.0¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | $24 | 01/04/2026 |