Win rate
46.6%
298 W / 341 L
Total PnL
$-1,294
realized $-3,681 · unrealized $2,387
Portfolio
$2,387
volume $1,159,682
Predictions
1,105
5.4/day · avg $1,049
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 29/11/2024 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 19/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 19/04/2026 |
| Qualified | no |
Category breakdown
Weather 44% +$3,389
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30? | No | 18¢ | 20¢ | +$20 | win |
| Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30? | Yes | 3¢ | 0¢ | $-60 | loss |
| Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in April 2026? | Yes | 25¢ | 30¢ | +$44 | win |
| Will global temperature increase by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in March 2026? | Yes | 14¢ | 100¢ | +$2,420 | win |
| Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in February 2026? | Yes | 11¢ | 0¢ | +$42 | win |
| Will global temperature increase by between 1.05ºC and 1.09ºC in February 2026? | No | 77¢ | 100¢ | +$41 | win |
| Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in January 2026? | Yes | 6¢ | 0¢ | $-205 | loss |
| Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in December 2025? | Yes | 5¢ | 0¢ | $-73 | loss |
| Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31? | Yes | 39¢ | 100¢ | +$22 | win |
| Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in November 2025? | Yes | 9¢ | 0¢ | $-78 | loss |
Politics 62% +$1,335
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will F1 be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | 13¢ | 100¢ | +$998 | win |
| Will It Was Just an Accident be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? | No | 25¢ | 100¢ | +$204 | win |
| Will Trump sign the Epstein Disclosure Bill on November 19? | Yes | 51¢ | 100¢ | +$196 | win |
| Trump strikes another drug boat by Oct 15? | No | 38¢ | 0¢ | $-50 | loss |
| Trump strikes another drug boat by Sep 30? | No | 45¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
| Trump negative approval before April? | No | 16¢ | 0¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Trump inauguration be the most viewed ever? | Yes | 8¢ | 0¢ | $-2 | loss |
Geopolitics 75% +$397
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-03-07? | Yes | 55¢ | 100¢ | +$22 | win |
| Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-02-13? | Yes | 61¢ | 100¢ | +$23 | win |
| Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-02-07? | Yes | 55¢ | 100¢ | +$45 | win |
| Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-01-09? | Yes | 47¢ | 0¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2025-12-19? | Yes | 64¢ | 100¢ | +$36 | win |
| Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2025-12-14? | Yes | 46¢ | 0¢ | $-23 | loss |
| Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-12-07? | Yes | 58¢ | 100¢ | +$34 | win |
| Will Ukraine win on 2025-11-16? | Yes | 55¢ | 100¢ | +$27 | win |
| Will Israel win on 2025-11-16? | Yes | 66¢ | 100¢ | +$17 | win |
| Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-11-08? | Yes | 53¢ | 0¢ | $-53 | loss |
Sports 50% +$148
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 7¢ | 7¢ | +$7 | win |
| Will the winner of the Czechia/Denmark/North Macedonia/Republic of Ireland playoff win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 25¢ | 24¢ | $-8 | loss |
| Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 52¢ | 52¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Will Atletico Madrid win the FIFA Club World Cup? | Yes | 5¢ | 0¢ | $-30 | loss |
Tech 50% $-37
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Google have the top AI model on May 31? | Yes | 44¢ | 100¢ | +$22 | win |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on January 31? | Yes | 30¢ | 0¢ | $-59 | loss |
Crypto 0% $-124
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Netherlands win on 2025-11-14? | Yes | 58¢ | 0¢ | $-86 | loss |
| Bitcoin above $89,000 on March 14? | Yes | 18¢ | 0¢ | $-38 | loss |
Culture 41% $-438
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? | Yes | 3¢ | 4¢ | +$12 | win |
| Will The Odyssey have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? | Yes | 2¢ | 2¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 31m and 34m? | Yes | 18¢ | 24¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 44m and 48m? | Yes | 3¢ | 0¢ | $-22 | loss |
| Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 70m and 80m? | Yes | 12¢ | 0¢ | +$41 | win |
| Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 190m and 200m? | Yes | 8¢ | 100¢ | +$30 | win |
| Will "Ready or Not 2: Here I Come" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 13m? | Yes | 9¢ | 0¢ | $-17 | loss |
| Will Sinners win Best Original Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | 38¢ | 100¢ | +$38 | win |
| Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | 4¢ | 0¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will Teyana Taylor win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | 40¢ | 0¢ | +$6 | win |
Other 47% $-6,598
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will 2026 be the third-hottest year on record? | Yes | 4¢ | 4¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | Yes | 16¢ | 14¢ | $-38 | loss |
| Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | $-21 | loss |
| Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? | Yes | 2¢ | 0¢ | $-26 | loss |
| Will Atalanta win the 2025–26 Serie A league? | Yes | 2¢ | 0¢ | $-24 | loss |
| Will AC Milan finish in the top 4 in the 2025-26 Serie A season? | No | 4¢ | 19¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | Yes | 8¢ | 0¢ | $-302 | loss |
| Will Aston Villa finish in 2nd place in the 2025-26 English Premier League? | Yes | 7¢ | 0¢ | $-69 | loss |
| Will Manchester United finish in 3rd place in the 2025-26 English Premier League? | Yes | 28¢ | 43¢ | +$14 | win |
| Will Lyon win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? | Yes | 12¢ | 0¢ | $-187 | loss |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5) | Real Madrid CF | 9.4¢ | 0¢ | $-49 | $66 | 15/04/2026 |
| Spread: Sporting CP (-1.5) | Sporting CP | 5.0¢ | 0¢ | $-24 | $25 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? | Yes | 17.3¢ | 0¢ | $-30 | $31 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? | Yes | 20.7¢ | 0¢ | $-30 | $31 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-15? | Yes | 64.0¢ | 0¢ | $-76 | $77 | 15/04/2026 |
| Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5) | Arsenal FC | 37.5¢ | 0¢ | $-37 | $38 | 15/04/2026 |
| Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) | Paris Saint-Germain FC | 21.0¢ | 100¢ | +$79 | $21 | 14/04/2026 |
| Spread: FC Barcelona (-2.5) | FC Barcelona | 18.0¢ | 0¢ | $-35 | $36 | 14/04/2026 |
| Will Liverpool FC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw? | Yes | 23.0¢ | 0¢ | $-29 | $30 | 14/04/2026 |
| Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-14? | Yes | 26.0¢ | 0¢ | $-26 | $78 | 14/04/2026 |
| Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw? | Yes | 22.0¢ | 0¢ | $-21 | $22 | 14/04/2026 |
| Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 70m and 80m? | Yes | 11.8¢ | 0¢ | +$41 | $106 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-04-12? | Yes | 41.2¢ | 0¢ | $-97 | $99 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-04-12? | Yes | 35.0¢ | 0¢ | $-67 | $68 | 12/04/2026 |
| Spread: Aston Villa FC (-1.5) | Aston Villa FC | 15.0¢ | 0¢ | $-23 | $24 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Crystal Palace FC vs. Newcastle United FC end in a draw? | Yes | 28.0¢ | 0¢ | $-25 | $25 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-04-12? | Yes | 36.0¢ | 0¢ | $-21 | $22 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-04-11? | Yes | 31.0¢ | 0¢ | $-30 | $31 | 11/04/2026 |
| Will Atalanta BC vs. Juventus FC end in a draw? | Yes | 28.4¢ | 0¢ | $-25 | $26 | 11/04/2026 |
| Will global temperature increase by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in March 2026? | Yes | 14.2¢ | 100¢ | +$2,420 | $403 | 10/04/2026 |
| Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in March 2026? | Yes | 8.9¢ | 0¢ | $-242 | $242 | 10/04/2026 |
| Will global temperature increase by more than 1.29ºC in March 2026? | Yes | 14.9¢ | 0¢ | +$610 | $977 | 10/04/2026 |
| Will AS Monaco FC win on 2026-04-10? | Yes | 50.0¢ | 0¢ | $-30 | $30 | 10/04/2026 |
| Will FC Porto win on 2026-04-09? | Yes | 46.0¢ | 0¢ | $-45 | $46 | 09/04/2026 |
| Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) | Paris Saint-Germain FC | 33.7¢ | 100¢ | +$100 | $50 | 08/04/2026 |
| Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-2.5) | Paris Saint-Germain FC | 18.1¢ | 0¢ | $-30 | $31 | 08/04/2026 |
| Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5) | FC Bayern München | 25.5¢ | 0¢ | $-25 | $26 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 190m and 200m? | Yes | 7.9¢ | 100¢ | +$30 | $27 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-04-05? | Yes | 54.0¢ | 0¢ | $-27 | $27 | 05/04/2026 |
| Will Belgium win on 2026-03-31? | Yes | 47.0¢ | 0¢ | $-24 | $23 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Switzerland win on 2026-03-31? | Yes | 29.0¢ | 0¢ | $-29 | $29 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Denmark win on 2026-03-31? | Yes | 47.0¢ | 0¢ | $-23 | $23 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will France win on 2026-03-29? | Yes | 57.0¢ | 100¢ | +$26 | $34 | 29/03/2026 |
| Will "Ready or Not 2: Here I Come" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 13m? | Yes | 8.7¢ | 0¢ | $-17 | $24 | 23/03/2026 |
| Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-03-22? | Yes | 41.5¢ | 0¢ | $-91 | $91 | 22/03/2026 |
| Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-03-22? | Yes | 59.0¢ | 0¢ | $-118 | $118 | 22/03/2026 |
| Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-03-22? | Yes | 51.5¢ | 0¢ | $-95 | $95 | 22/03/2026 |
| Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-03-22? | Yes | 24.0¢ | 0¢ | $-24 | $24 | 22/03/2026 |
| Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-03-22? | No | 47.5¢ | 0¢ | $-48 | $48 | 22/03/2026 |
| Will Olympique de Marseille vs. Lille OSC end in a draw? | Yes | 26.0¢ | 0¢ | $-23 | $23 | 22/03/2026 |
| Will Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC end in a draw? | Yes | 29.0¢ | 0¢ | $-23 | $23 | 22/03/2026 |
| Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-03-19? | Yes | 58.6¢ | 100¢ | +$33 | $47 | 19/03/2026 |
| Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-03-19? | Yes | 46.0¢ | 0¢ | $-138 | $138 | 19/03/2026 |
| Spread: Olympique Lyonnais (-1.5) | Olympique Lyonnais | 21.4¢ | 0¢ | $-25 | $25 | 19/03/2026 |
| Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-18? | Yes | 36.5¢ | 0¢ | $-36 | $36 | 18/03/2026 |
| Will Sinners win Best Original Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | 37.7¢ | 100¢ | +$38 | $42 | 15/03/2026 |
| Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-15? | Yes | 57.0¢ | 100¢ | +$22 | $28 | 15/03/2026 |
| Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | 4.0¢ | 0¢ | +$12 | $31 | 15/03/2026 |
| Will Teyana Taylor win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | 39.6¢ | 0¢ | +$6 | $24 | 15/03/2026 |
| Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | 3.9¢ | 0¢ | +$5 | $31 | 15/03/2026 |