Lolakis

Geopolitics 78% +$19,879 $930,792 vol · 221 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	No	22¢	0¢	+$1,155	win
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?	Yes	72¢	100¢	+$-0	—
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	No	81¢	100¢	+$55	win
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	Yes	68¢	100¢	+$243	win
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?	No	87¢	88¢	+$0	win
Iran leadership change by March 13?	No	88¢	100¢	+$5	win
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?	No	74¢	82¢	+$50	win
US x Denmark Military clash before 2027?	No	75¢	94¢	+$40	win
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	44¢	74¢	+$-0	—
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	Yes	95¢	100¢	$-96	loss

Other 64% +$4,048 $127,258 vol · 128 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	99¢	100¢	+$141	win
Backpack FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	98¢	100¢	+$20	win
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	No	57¢	56¢	+$1	win
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	20¢	8¢	$-13	loss
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	No	42¢	66¢	$-12	loss
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	No	96¢	96¢	+$2	win
Prince Andrew sentenced to prison?	No	88¢	92¢	+$2	win
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	No	81¢	84¢	+$0	—
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	83¢	82¢	$-6	loss
Will Elissa Finley get engaged on Love is Blind: Ohio?	No	45¢	0¢	+$3	win

Crypto 48% +$2,387 $91,175 vol · 142 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in March?	No	51¢	0¢	+$13	win
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 9?	No	19¢	0¢	$-642	loss
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 7?	No	33¢	100¢	+$116	win
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 6?	No	16¢	0¢	$-178	loss
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 5?	No	25¢	100¢	+$146	win
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 4?	No	21¢	0¢	$-346	loss
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 February 23-March 1?	Yes	27¢	0¢	$-99	loss
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February?	No	59¢	100¢	+$31	win
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on March 1?	No	44¢	100¢	$-14	loss
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 1?	No	22¢	0¢	$-26	loss

Mentions 81% +$1,686 $2,470 vol · 16 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Khamenei tweet every day through March 20?	No	88¢	100¢	+$37	win
Will Khamenei post 0-19 posts from March 17 to March 24, 2026?	No	40¢	100¢	+$24	win
Will Khamenei post 40-59 posts from March 17 to March 24, 2026?	Yes	50¢	0¢	$-87	loss
Will Khamenei tweet again on March 17, 2026?	Yes	65¢	100¢	+$16	win
Will Mojtaba Khamenei tweet again on March 17?	Yes	20¢	0¢	$-80	loss
Will Khamenei tweet again on March 10, 2026?	Yes	48¢	100¢	+$194	win
Will Khamenei tweet again on March 14, 2026?	No	7¢	100¢	+$114	win
Will Netanyahu tweet again by Saturday?	Yes	15¢	0¢	$-33	loss

Tech 53% +$1,543 $18,667 vol · 113 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
GPT-5.5 released by April 30, 2026?	Yes	75¢	93¢	+$15	win
Will Google have the third-best AI model at the end of March 2026?	Yes	95¢	100¢	+$21	win
Will HotSchedules be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on March 13?	No	99¢	100¢	+$9	win
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on March 13?	Yes	99¢	100¢	+$5	win
Will HotSchedules be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on March 10?	Yes	65¢	100¢	+$468	win
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on March 10?	No	60¢	100¢	+$335	win
GPT-5.3 released by March 8, 2026?	No	6¢	0¢	$-47	loss
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $180 on March 6?	No	39¢	100¢	+$70	win
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 6?	No	39¢	100¢	+$0	win
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?	No	18¢	0¢	$-13	loss

Politics 80% +$1,515 $133,318 vol · 79 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	48¢	61¢	+$5	win
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?	Yes	25¢	0¢	+$4	win
Will Pam Bondi be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?	No	5¢	0¢	+$6	win
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration before 2027?	No	17¢	0¢	$-653	loss
US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China?	Yes	43¢	100¢	+$10	win
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?	Yes	65¢	69¢	+$4	win
Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?	Yes	7¢	23¢	+$112	win
Trump out as President by April 30?	No	98¢	99¢	+$39	win
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	No	51¢	99¢	+$8	win
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 17, 2026?	No	92¢	95¢	+$2	win

Elections 75% +$767 $9,318 vol · 23 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	12¢	11¢	+$-0	—
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	29¢	22¢	$-1	loss
Trump declares election interference national emergency?	No	79¢	81¢	+$2	win
Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?	Yes	42¢	42¢	$-1	loss
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Yes	44¢	0¢	+$11	win
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	89¢	95¢	+$4	win
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	52¢	40¢	$-2	loss
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	84¢	100¢	+$1	win
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	65¢	66¢	+$5	win
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	No	60¢	64¢	+$1	win

Sports 79% +$339 $1,235 vol · 24 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will JB Bickerstaff win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year?	Yes	51¢	7¢	+$13	win
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Year?	Yes	62¢	99¢	+$6	win
Will Deni Avdija win the 2025–2026 NBA Most Improved Player?	No	37¢	96¢	+$2	win
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Year?	No	53¢	1¢	+$0	win
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals?	Yes	46¢	57¢	+$2	win
Will Nikola Jokic lead the NBA in assists during the 2025–26 NBA season?	No	30¢	0¢	+$5	win
Will Karl-Anthony Towns lead the NBA in rebounds during the 2025–26 NBA season?	No	78¢	100¢	+$3	win
Will Cade Cunningham lead the NBA in assists during the 2025–26 NBA season?	Yes	31¢	0¢	$-8	loss
Will F1 win Best Sound at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	79¢	100¢	+$10	win
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Versus Playoffs	Movistar KOI	38¢	0¢	$-38	loss

Esports 100% +$28 $52 vol · 2 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 Winner	Tundra Esports	61¢	100¢	+$19	win
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner	Team Liquid	72¢	100¢	+$8	win

Finance 50% $-1,408 $8,723 vol · 55 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026?	No	72¢	28¢	+$0	—
Paramount x Warner Bros. acquisition announced by June 30?	No	52¢	0¢	+$16	win
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 6?	Down	68¢	100¢	+$46	win
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 5?	Down	53¢	100¢	+$42	win
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 5?	Down	55¢	100¢	+$25	win
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 4?	Down	11¢	0¢	$-53	loss
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 4?	Down	11¢	0¢	$-328	loss
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 2?	Up	14¢	0¢	$-199	loss
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on February 27?	Down	87¢	100¢	+$21	win
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 25?	Down	43¢	0¢	$-32	loss

Culture 53% $-6,587 $48,848 vol · 193 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Bad Bunny be the top Spotify artist for 2026?	Yes	60¢	72¢	+$6	win
Will Drake be the top Spotify artist for 2026?	No	81¢	90¢	+$5	win
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 70m and 80m?	Yes	68¢	0¢	$-32	loss
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 180m and 190m?	Yes	23¢	0¢	$-342	loss
Will "Project Hail Mary" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 35m and 38m?	No	99¢	100¢	+$1	win
Will "They Will Kill You" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 5m and 6m?	Yes	10¢	0¢	$-37	loss
Will "Hoppers" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 11m and 12m?	Yes	47¢	0¢	$-1	loss
Will "Hoppers" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 12m and 13m?	No	50¢	0¢	$-41	loss
Will "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 75m and 80m?	Yes	10¢	0¢	$-335	loss
Will "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 75m and 80m?	No	81¢	100¢	$-43	loss