Win rate
81.8%
471 W / 105 L
Total PnL
$17,312
realized $4,267 · unrealized $13,045
Portfolio
$13,045
volume $1,446,940
Predictions
587
5.8/day · avg $2,465
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 09/12/2024 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Other 82% +$9,152
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maduro guilty of all counts? | No | 61¢ | 78¢ | +$1 | win |
| US strike on Cuba by March 31? | No | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$338 | win |
| Will Yoon Suk Yeol be sentenced to at least 30 years in prison? | Yes | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$203 | win |
| US strike on Mexico by March 31? | No | 74¢ | 100¢ | +$72 | win |
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | No | 71¢ | 76¢ | +$106 | win |
| Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? | No | 75¢ | 84¢ | +$103 | win |
| Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026? | No | 89¢ | 92¢ | +$54 | win |
| Xi Jinping out before 2027? | No | 50¢ | 93¢ | +$20 | win |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | Yes | 37¢ | 40¢ | +$15 | win |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be the next leader out before 2027? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | win |
Politics 80% +$5,384
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump wear a Yarmulke in 2026? | No | 31¢ | 64¢ | +$43 | win |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? | Yes | 48¢ | 0¢ | $-82 | loss |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | No | 80¢ | 92¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? | No | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? | No | 83¢ | 85¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will Trump visit China by April 30? | Yes | 6¢ | 1¢ | $-1,452 | loss |
| Will Trump declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026? | No | 81¢ | 98¢ | +$70 | win |
| Will Trump talk to Emmanuel Macron in April? | Yes | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? | No | 85¢ | 52¢ | $-844 | loss |
| Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? | No | 90¢ | 83¢ | $-62 | loss |
Elections 95% +$3,554
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Party for Freedom win the second most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | Yes | 66¢ | 100¢ | +$102 | win |
| Will the People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the second most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | No | 75¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will the Freedom Movement (GS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election? | Yes | 60¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will People’s Party (PPLE) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | win |
| Will the Liberal Democratic Party win the most seats in the 2026 Japanese general election? | Yes | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | win |
| Will To Lam be elected General Secretary of the Vietnamese Communist Party? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1,973 | win |
| Will To Lam be elected General Secretary of the Vietnamese Communist Party? | No | 1¢ | 0¢ | +$78 | win |
| Ukraine election called in 2025? | Yes | 68¢ | 0¢ | $-24 | loss |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Yes | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$80 | win |
| Will the Party of Action and Solidarity win the most seats in the 2025 Moldova parliamentary election? | Yes | 88¢ | 100¢ | +$242 | win |
Geopolitics 82% +$1,549
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran leadership change by March 13? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$161 | win |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | 60¢ | 82¢ | +$187 | win |
| US forces enter Iran by December 31? | Yes | 53¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | win |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? | Yes | 44¢ | 30¢ | +$102 | win |
| Will the US strike Iran next? | No | 72¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | win |
| US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? | No | 68¢ | 86¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026? | No | 85¢ | 88¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | No | 62¢ | 0¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | No | 51¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | Yes | 30¢ | 30¢ | $-0 | loss |
Economy 92% +$255
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? | Yes | 97¢ | 99¢ | +$10 | win |
| Will China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 5.0% and 5.5%? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%? | Yes | 62¢ | 66¢ | +$44 | win |
| Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 5.0% and 6.0%? | No | 69¢ | 70¢ | +$4 | win |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | Yes | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | win |
| No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | win |
| No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after December 2025 meeting? | No | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$123 | win |
| Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? | Yes | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | win |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| No change in Fed interest rates after March 2025 meeting? | Yes | 75¢ | 100¢ | $-9 | loss |
Crypto 90% +$94
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Geert Wilders become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands? | No | 91¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2025? | No | 65¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| US Treasury transactions on blockchain in 2025? | No | 82¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will MicroStrategy be forced to liquidate Bitcoin holdings in 2025? | No | 88¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Bitcoin reach $110k in May? | No | 62¢ | 0¢ | $-123 | loss |
| Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by March 31? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 25-Mar 3? | Yes | 65¢ | 0¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will MicroStrategy hold 500k+ BTC before March? | No | 30¢ | 100¢ | +$106 | win |
| Will Kanye launch a coin in February? | No | 87¢ | 100¢ | +$17 | win |
| Will Bybit buy >$1b ETH by next Friday? | No | 51¢ | 50¢ | +$7 | win |
Sports 100% +$39
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dodgers vs. Phillies | Dodgers | 89¢ | 100¢ | +$17 | win |
| Will China unban Bitcoin by March 31? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$22 | win |
Weather 80% +$9
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 22? | Yes | 75¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | win |
| Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 8? | Yes | 68¢ | 100¢ | +$20 | win |
| Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 8? | No | 61¢ | 0¢ | $-16 | loss |
| Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 41-42°F on February 13? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in London be between 52-53°F on January 28? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | $-19 | loss |
| Will the highest temperature in London be between 51-52°F on January 24? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in NYC be 36°F or higher on January 23? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
Tech 54% $-460
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026? | Yes | 73¢ | 92¢ | +$9 | win |
| Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on April 7? | Yes | 72¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | win |
| Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on March 17? | Yes | 71¢ | 100¢ | +$54 | win |
| Musk out as Tesla CEO in 2025? | No | 82¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| OpenAI browser by October 31? | No | 16¢ | 0¢ | $-366 | loss |
| Will GPT-4.5 be released by February 28? | No | 57¢ | 0¢ | $-31 | loss |
| Will Google have the top AI model on February 28? | Yes | 60¢ | 0¢ | $-103 | loss |
| Will Apple launch an Apple Watch on February 19? | No | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | win |
| Will Apple launch a MacBook on February 19? | Yes | 57¢ | 0¢ | $-26 | loss |
| Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on January 31? | Yes | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
Culture 67% $-2,534
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will 'Clair Obscur: Expedition 33' win Game of the Year in the 2025 Steam Awards? | Yes | 60¢ | 0¢ | $-60 | loss |
| Will Superman be the third highest grossing movie of 2025? | Yes | 91¢ | 100¢ | +$99 | win |
| Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will Lilo and Stitch be the second highest grossing movie of 2025? | Yes | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will "Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua" be the top US Netflix show this week? (December 23, 2025) | Yes | 91¢ | 100¢ | +$80 | win |
| Will "Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua" be the top global Netflix show this week? (December 23, 2025) | Yes | 62¢ | 0¢ | $-2,664 | loss |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 4.5% and 5.0%? | Yes | 31.0¢ | 0¢ | +$33 | $115 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 5.0% and 5.5%? | Yes | 99.1¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $327 | 17/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 93.6¢ | 100¢ | +$57 | $793 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | Yes | 97.3¢ | 100¢ | +$35 | $5,596 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? | Yes | 88.6¢ | 100¢ | +$35 | $461 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026? | No | 98.4¢ | 100¢ | +$20 | $1,279 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, 2026? | No | 79.5¢ | 98¢ | +$6 | $80 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | No | 84.0¢ | 0¢ | +$2 | $168 | 15/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | Yes | 63.3¢ | 87¢ | +$1 | $63 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 13, 2026? | Yes | 97.6¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $98 | 13/04/2026 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 12, 2026? | No | 88.6¢ | 100¢ | +$26 | $1,152 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | Yes | 98.6¢ | 99¢ | +$31 | $1,380 | 12/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? | No | 86.0¢ | 100¢ | +$254 | $2,330 | 10/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 10? | Yes | 94.5¢ | 100¢ | +$64 | $2,456 | 10/04/2026 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 10, 2026? | No | 97.9¢ | 100¢ | +$17 | $1,042 | 10/04/2026 |
| JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10? | Yes | 58.9¢ | 0¢ | $-13 | $59 | 10/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? | Yes | 7.6¢ | 0¢ | $-143 | $95 | 10/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | Yes | 99.5¢ | 100¢ | +$61 | $12,439 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on April 7? | Yes | 72.0¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | $36 | 07/04/2026 |
| Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? | Yes | 96.5¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $193 | 07/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | No | 47.3¢ | 13¢ | $-110 | $924 | 07/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | No | 90.8¢ | 0¢ | $-5,381 | $5,994 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran first? | US | 35.6¢ | 50¢ | +$1,243 | $3,934 | 31/03/2026 |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? | No | 95.7¢ | 100¢ | +$857 | $22,686 | 31/03/2026 |
| Houthi strike on Israel by March 15, 2026? | No | 93.7¢ | 100¢ | +$709 | $4,659 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March? | No | 98.2¢ | 100¢ | +$679 | $22,149 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026? | No | 83.3¢ | 100¢ | +$434 | $4,530 | 31/03/2026 |
| Houthi strike on Israel by March 31, 2026? | No | 95.1¢ | 100¢ | +$421 | $4,429 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump visit China by May 31? | Yes | 82.0¢ | 86¢ | +$290 | $2,806 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | No | 94.0¢ | 100¢ | +$282 | $4,121 | 31/03/2026 |
| Iran leadership change by March 31? | No | 93.0¢ | 100¢ | +$257 | $1,940 | 31/03/2026 |
| Houthi strike on Israel by March 6, 2026? | No | 99.6¢ | 100¢ | +$220 | $4,928 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will any European country expel an Israeli ambassador by March 31? | No | 92.9¢ | 100¢ | +$205 | $2,865 | 31/03/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | No | 98.9¢ | 100¢ | +$199 | $1,484 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump visit China by June 30? | Yes | 63.3¢ | 90¢ | +$166 | $443 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by March 7? | No | 79.3¢ | 100¢ | +$127 | $674 | 31/03/2026 |
| Fact Check: Maduro capture staged? | No | 97.8¢ | 100¢ | +$124 | $3,951 | 31/03/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? | No | 87.4¢ | 100¢ | +$81 | $1,326 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 5, 2026? | No | 85.5¢ | 100¢ | +$79 | $470 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? | No | 81.2¢ | 100¢ | +$66 | $1,867 | 31/03/2026 |
| Masoud Pezeshkian out by March 31? | No | 81.7¢ | 100¢ | +$60 | $368 | 31/03/2026 |
| Zelenskyy wears a suit and tie during next Trump meeting? | No | 90.7¢ | 100¢ | +$55 | $544 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 1? | No | 94.9¢ | 100¢ | +$54 | $1,053 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6? | No | 94.8¢ | 100¢ | +$51 | $749 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by March 15? | Yes | 74.4¢ | 100¢ | +$40 | $439 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by March 31, 2026? | No | 71.6¢ | 100¢ | +$37 | $493 | 31/03/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | Yes | 42.0¢ | 0¢ | +$32 | $336 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 3? | No | 91.7¢ | 100¢ | +$31 | $346 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 4? | No | 68.0¢ | 100¢ | +$30 | $68 | 31/03/2026 |
| Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia by March 31? | No | 85.4¢ | 100¢ | +$26 | $171 | 31/03/2026 |