Win rate
65.1%
164 W / 88 L
Total PnL
$3,024
realized $2,311 · unrealized $712
Portfolio
$712
volume $857,410
Predictions
311
6.6/day · avg $2,757
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 08/09/2025 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Geopolitics 73% +$3,173
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | Yes | 54¢ | 69¢ | +$4 | win |
| Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 30, 2026? | No | 19¢ | 0¢ | $-20 | loss |
| Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 70¢ | 100¢ | $-13 | loss |
| Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? | Yes | 85¢ | 89¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Marco Rubio attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? | No | 82¢ | 62¢ | +$1 | win |
| Israel strike on Yemen by May 31, 2026? | Yes | 75¢ | 22¢ | $-38 | loss |
| Will USD fall to 1.3M Iranian rials by April 30? | Yes | 9¢ | 6¢ | +$8 | win |
| Will USD reach 1.8M Iranian rials by April 30? | No | 55¢ | 91¢ | +$292 | win |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | Yes | 84¢ | 100¢ | $-121 | loss |
| US announces military support of Iran opposition by April 30? | No | 68¢ | 97¢ | +$91 | win |
Other 62% +$609
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Genius FDV above $1B one day after launch? | Yes | 2¢ | 0¢ | $-29 | loss |
| Genius FDV above $50M one day after launch? | No | 3¢ | 0¢ | $-18 | loss |
| OneFootball FDV above $20M one day after launch? | No | 1¢ | 0¢ | +$3 | win |
| Sentio FDV above $20M one day after launch? | No | 1¢ | 0¢ | $-36 | loss |
| Trove FDV above $2M one day after launch? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | $-291 | loss |
| VOOI FDV above $500M one day after launch? | No | 83¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | win |
| Backpack FDV above $2B one day after launch? | No | 74¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? | No | 72¢ | 82¢ | +$0 | — |
| Opinion FDV above $250M one day after launch? | No | 2¢ | 0¢ | $-7 | loss |
| Aztec FDV above $150M one day after launch? | No | 3¢ | 0¢ | $-40 | loss |
Politics 79% +$277
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 8¢ | 8¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? | No | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | win |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April? | Yes | 40¢ | 48¢ | +$18 | win |
| Will Trump endorse an Israeli Ceasefire in Lebanon by April 30? | Yes | 59¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 17, 2026? | Yes | 26¢ | 44¢ | +$73 | win |
| Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 21, 2026? | Yes | 24¢ | 10¢ | +$13 | win |
| Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 14, 2026? | No | 79¢ | 100¢ | $-24 | loss |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 7th? | No | 59¢ | 100¢ | $-21 | loss |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? | Yes | 79¢ | 0¢ | $-45 | loss |
| Will Raja Krishnamoorthi be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Illinois? | Yes | 13¢ | 0¢ | $-217 | loss |
Elections 50% +$92
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will PH win the second most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Representatives election? | No | 91¢ | 99¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | No | 5¢ | 0¢ | +$94 | win |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Yes | 95¢ | 100¢ | $-2 | loss |
Esports 0% $-5
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valorant: Team Secret vs Global Esports (BO3) - VCT Pacific Group Alpha | Team Secret | 10¢ | 0¢ | $-5 | loss |
Finance 67% $-22
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Generate Biomedicines not IPO before April 2026? | No | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | win |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 17? | Down | 97¢ | 100¢ | $-32 | loss |
| Will Liftoff Mobile not IPO before April 2026? | Yes | 87¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
Tech 50% $-23
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT ads by March 31? | Yes | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31? | Yes | 82¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31? | No | 25¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $210 on February 27? | Yes | 14¢ | 0¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $205 on February 19? | Yes | 25¢ | 0¢ | $-27 | loss |
| Will Apple (AAPL) close above $260 on February 17? | Yes | 72¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $185 on February 17? | No | 71¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | loss |
Sports 25% $-118
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on March 5? | Up | 98¢ | 100¢ | $-48 | loss |
| Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on February 19? | Down | 62¢ | 0¢ | $-30 | loss |
| UFC 322: Makhachev vs. Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card) | Makhachev | 73¢ | 100¢ | +$27 | win |
| UFC 322: Makhachev vs. Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card) | Della Maddalena | 27¢ | 0¢ | $-68 | loss |
Crypto 50% $-456
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 10? | No | 4¢ | 0¢ | $-30 | loss |
| Will Hegseth or Cooper say "Peace" during press conference? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | $-25 | loss |
| Will Hegseth or Cooper say "Peace" during press conference? | Yes | 89¢ | 0¢ | $-25 | loss |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on February 17? | No | 7¢ | 0¢ | $-11 | loss |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 16? | No | 8¢ | 100¢ | +$66 | win |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on February 16? | Yes | 9¢ | 0¢ | $-36 | loss |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on February 7? | Yes | 8¢ | 0¢ | +$15 | win |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in January? | Yes | 9¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET | Down | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET | Down | 47¢ | 100¢ | +$26 | win |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $89 on April 17? | No | 10.0¢ | 56¢ | +$155 | $50 | 17/04/2026 |
| WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $90 on April 17? | No | 10.0¢ | 62¢ | +$119 | $59 | 17/04/2026 |
| WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $96 on April 17? | Yes | 95.0¢ | 4¢ | $-82 | $86 | 17/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | No | 51.0¢ | 100¢ | +$89 | $255 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 5.4¢ | 0¢ | $-46 | $65 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | No | 16.5¢ | 0¢ | $-140 | $974 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 14, 2026? | Yes | 9.9¢ | 0¢ | +$57 | $70 | 14/04/2026 |
| Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 14, 2026? | No | 79.0¢ | 100¢ | $-24 | $320 | 14/04/2026 |
| Valorant: Team Secret vs Global Esports (BO3) - VCT Pacific Group Alpha | Team Secret | 10.0¢ | 0¢ | $-5 | $25 | 11/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 10? | No | 23.0¢ | 0¢ | +$12 | $55 | 10/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | No | 30.0¢ | 0¢ | +$92 | $2,310 | 07/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | Yes | 3.4¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $34 | 07/04/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | Yes | 1.2¢ | 0¢ | +$1,132 | $43 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? | No | 43.0¢ | 100¢ | +$400 | $4,592 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? | Yes | 71.0¢ | 0¢ | +$260 | $1,483 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31? | No | 92.0¢ | 100¢ | +$236 | $2,224 | 31/03/2026 |
| Houthi strike on Israel by March 31, 2026? | No | 62.1¢ | 100¢ | +$91 | $497 | 31/03/2026 |
| US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30? | Yes | 15.6¢ | 16¢ | +$79 | $247 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? | No | 5.6¢ | 100¢ | +$51 | $177 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of March? | Yes | 5.0¢ | 0¢ | +$49 | $77 | 31/03/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 15th? | No | 41.5¢ | 100¢ | +$47 | $114 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of March? | No | 78.5¢ | 100¢ | +$45 | $1,142 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? | No | 53.8¢ | 0¢ | +$29 | $508 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $90 by end of March? | Yes | 15.7¢ | 100¢ | +$26 | $258 | 31/03/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? | No | 81.0¢ | 100¢ | +$26 | $279 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of March? | No | 94.0¢ | 100¢ | +$26 | $520 | 31/03/2026 |
| Houthi strike on Israel by April 15, 2026? | No | 2.1¢ | 0¢ | +$21 | $59 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran successfully target shipping on March 19, 2026? | No | 78.1¢ | 100¢ | +$19 | $78 | 31/03/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 7th? | Yes | 42.0¢ | 0¢ | +$19 | $98 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? | Yes | 92.0¢ | 0¢ | +$12 | $1,058 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? | No | 58.2¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | $571 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will another country strike Iran by March 7? | No | 73.0¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | $90 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of March? | Yes | 3.6¢ | 0¢ | +$4 | $153 | 31/03/2026 |
| GPT ads by March 31? | Yes | 95.5¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $175 | 31/03/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 1st? | No | 96.0¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $96 | 31/03/2026 |
| Pakistan military action against Kabul by March 31? | No | 52.7¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $56 | 31/03/2026 |
| Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31? | Yes | 82.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $164 | 31/03/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 15th? | Yes | 61.5¢ | 0¢ | +$2 | $97 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1? | Yes | 12.8¢ | 0¢ | +$2 | $60 | 31/03/2026 |
| US/Israel strike Yemen by March 7? | Yes | 48.6¢ | 0¢ | +$1 | $44 | 31/03/2026 |
| Crude Oil all time high by March 31? | No | 98.1¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $196 | 31/03/2026 |
| Pakistan military action against Kabul by March 31? | Yes | 49.7¢ | 0¢ | +$1 | $25 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will there be between 50 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31? | No | 84.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $24 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31? | No | 84.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $42 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by March 15? | Yes | 74.7¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $45 | 31/03/2026 |
| US/Israel strike Yemen by March 4? | No | 70.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $59 | 31/03/2026 |
| Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31? | No | 25.0¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | $50 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran strike gulf oil facilities by March 31? | Yes | 51.6¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | $37 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of March? | Yes | 5.0¢ | 0¢ | $-7 | $27 | 31/03/2026 |
| US/Israel strike Yemen by March 7? | No | 59.0¢ | 100¢ | $-10 | $68 | 31/03/2026 |