Win rate
52.1%
687 W / 632 L
Total PnL
$-84,654
realized $-175,901 · unrealized $91,247
Portfolio
$91,247
volume $11,787,377
Predictions
1,354
3.4/day · avg $8,706
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 17/10/2024 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 18/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 18/04/2026 |
| Qualified | no |
Category breakdown
Politics 62% +$34,469
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | No | 83¢ | 0¢ | +$40 | win |
| Trump out as President before 2027? | Yes | 12¢ | 16¢ | +$549 | win |
| Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? | Yes | 46¢ | 0¢ | $-3,072 | loss |
| Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? | Yes | 10¢ | 8¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Trump out as President before 2027? | No | 84¢ | 84¢ | $-95 | loss |
| Will Trump pardon Keonne Rodriguez before 2027? | Yes | 23¢ | 29¢ | +$10 | win |
| Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31 and will the Democratic Party win the House in 2026? | Yes | 85¢ | 84¢ | $-5 | loss |
| Will The Marías be nominated for Best New Artist at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards? | No | 20¢ | 0¢ | $-202 | loss |
| Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by January 31, 2026? | No | 16¢ | 0¢ | +$258 | win |
| Will Park Chan-wook be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | win |
Crypto 49% +$13,606
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 29¢ | 24¢ | $-88 | loss |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | 31¢ | 0¢ | $-14 | loss |
| Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | 66¢ | 80¢ | $-28 | loss |
| Will Ethereum reach $5,000 by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 13¢ | 14¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? | No | 74¢ | 90¢ | +$1,549 | win |
| Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 11¢ | 10¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026? | Yes | 34¢ | 34¢ | $-16 | loss |
| Will Gold have the best performance in 2026? | No | 31¢ | 44¢ | +$10 | win |
| Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? | No | 90¢ | 100¢ | +$210 | win |
| Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in February? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | $-24 | loss |
Mentions 46% +$874
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon tweet 275–299 times April 11–18? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Elon tweet 225–249 times April 11–18? | Yes | 12¢ | 0¢ | $-57 | loss |
| Will Elon tweet 300-324 times April 4 - 11? | No | 92¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28? | Yes | 20¢ | 0¢ | $-414 | loss |
| Will Elon tweet 550-574 times March 7-14? | Yes | 10¢ | 0¢ | $-62 | loss |
| Will Elon tweet 475-499 times March 7-14? | No | 91¢ | 100¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will Elon tweet 600-649 times Feb 28 - March 7? | Yes | 24¢ | 0¢ | $-79 | loss |
| Will Elon tweet 600-649 times Feb 28 - March 7? | No | 93¢ | 100¢ | $-48 | loss |
| Will Elon tweet 750-799 times Feb 21-28? | No | 60¢ | 0¢ | $-405 | loss |
Finance 0% $-106
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed rate hike in 2026? | Yes | 14¢ | 12¢ | $-102 | loss |
| Fed rate hike in 2025? | No | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Fed rate hike in 2025? | Yes | 8¢ | 0¢ | $-4 | loss |
Geopolitics 75% $-3,514
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stars vs. Senators | Senators | 53¢ | 0¢ | $-2,650 | loss |
| Will Iran strike a U.S. facility by Monday June 23? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$70 | win |
| Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July? | No | 25¢ | 0¢ | +$17 | win |
| Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July? | Yes | 92¢ | 100¢ | $-2,631 | loss |
| Israel strike on Iran on June 22? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$100 | win |
| Will Borussia Dortmund or Lille advance in the UCL Round of 16? | Dortmund | 51¢ | 100¢ | +$1,496 | win |
| Will Borussia Dortmund or Lille advance in the UCL Round of 16? | Lille | 40¢ | 0¢ | +$43 | win |
| Iran Nuke in 2024? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$41 | win |
Culture 61% $-3,982
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Drake be the top Spotify artist for 2026? | Yes | 8¢ | 9¢ | +$16 | win |
| Will Taylor Swift attend the Oscars? | No | 88¢ | 100¢ | +$48 | win |
| Will KPop Demon Hunters win Best Animated Feature Film at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$240 | win |
| Will Sinners win Best Original Score at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$210 | win |
| Will Zootopia 2 win Best Animated Feature Film at the 98th Academy Awards? | No | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$208 | win |
| Will "Frankenstein" win exactly 2 awards at the Oscars? | No | 81¢ | 100¢ | +$69 | win |
| Will Sinners win Best Costume Design at the 98th Academy Awards? | No | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$49 | win |
| Will Sentimental Value win Best Original Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$46 | win |
| Will Ryan Coogler win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | 6¢ | 0¢ | +$15 | win |
| Will Bad Bunny have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month? | Yes | 21¢ | 0¢ | $-1,036 | loss |
Other 52% $-4,012
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | No | 74¢ | 82¢ | +$118 | win |
| Will there be at least 7500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? | Yes | 29¢ | 14¢ | $-88 | loss |
| Insurrection Act invoked by December 31? | Yes | 32¢ | 22¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Starmer out by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 65¢ | 64¢ | $-507 | loss |
| Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? | No | 84¢ | 84¢ | $-46 | loss |
| Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | Yes | 15¢ | 18¢ | +$30 | win |
| Will Mamdani pass the 2% Millionaire Tax before 2027? | Yes | 12¢ | 14¢ | +$15 | win |
| Will Mamdani raise the minimum wage to $30 before 2027? | Yes | 11¢ | 15¢ | +$20 | win |
| Starmer out by December 31, 2026? | No | 51¢ | 36¢ | $-78 | loss |
| Insurrection Act invoked by December 31? | No | 70¢ | 78¢ | +$21 | win |
Elections 51% $-6,253
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Yes | 45¢ | 46¢ | +$63 | win |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | No | 45¢ | 46¢ | +$14 | win |
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Yes | 14¢ | 16¢ | +$119 | win |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | No | 15¢ | 16¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | Yes | 8¢ | 0¢ | $-25 | loss |
| Will People’s Party (PPLE) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election? | Yes | 71¢ | 0¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will André Ventura win 2nd place in the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | No | 74¢ | 0¢ | $-38 | loss |
| Greens win over 15% of vote in German election? | No | 87¢ | 100¢ | +$120 | win |
| Will the next UK election be called by December 31? | No | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$79 | win |
| Will the next Pope require 7–8 ballots? | Yes | 20¢ | 0¢ | $-188 | loss |
Economy 36% $-12,924
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Negative GDP growth in 2026? | No | 85¢ | 93¢ | +$340 | win |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | $-60 | loss |
| Will the February 2026 unemployment rate be 4.1%? | No | 90¢ | 100¢ | +$27 | win |
| Will the February 2026 unemployment rate be 4.5%? | Yes | 5¢ | 0¢ | $-25 | loss |
| US recession in 2025? | No | 86¢ | 100¢ | +$159 | win |
| US recession in 2025? | Yes | 55¢ | 0¢ | $-1,844 | loss |
| Will the January 2026 unemployment rate be ≤4.2%? | Yes | 5¢ | 0¢ | $-500 | loss |
| Bank of England decreases interest rates by 25 bps after February 2026 meeting? | Yes | 4¢ | 0¢ | $-94 | loss |
| Negative GDP growth in 2025? | No | 89¢ | 100¢ | +$166 | win |
| Will US GDP growth in Q4 2025 be greater than 3.5%? | No | 48¢ | 100¢ | +$-0 | — |
Tech 38% $-15,610
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Musk out as Tesla CEO before 2027? | Yes | 10¢ | 8¢ | $-7 | loss |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? | Yes | 2¢ | 4¢ | +$15 | win |
| Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31? | No | 51¢ | 0¢ | +$352 | win |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? | No | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$17 | win |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? | Yes | 4¢ | 0¢ | $-10 | loss |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? | Yes | 36¢ | 0¢ | $-109 | loss |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? | No | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$657 | win |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? | No | 7¢ | 0¢ | $-50 | loss |
| Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? | Yes | 84¢ | 100¢ | +$371 | win |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025? | Yes | 42¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
Sports 42% $-86,652
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will monthly inflation increase by 0.7% in April? | No | 70¢ | 92¢ | +$8 | win |
| Will F1 win Best Visual Effects at the 98th Academy Awards? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will annual inflation increase by ≥2.7% in February? | Yes | 3¢ | 0¢ | $-130 | loss |
| Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% or more in February? | Yes | 12¢ | 0¢ | $-60 | loss |
| Will the New England Patriots be eliminated in the Super Bowl? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | $-636 | loss |
| Will the New England Patriots win the Super Bowl? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | $-562 | loss |
| Will Norway win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? | Yes | 65¢ | 100¢ | $-130 | loss |
| Will the United States win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? | No | 81¢ | 100¢ | $-24 | loss |
| Will the United States win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? | No | 76¢ | 100¢ | $-18 | loss |
| Will the Seattle Seahawks win the Super Bowl? | No | 32¢ | 0¢ | +$30 | win |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the US add at least 100k jobs in March? | No | 74.0¢ | 0¢ | $-21 | $752 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? | No | 89.5¢ | 100¢ | +$210 | $1,790 | 01/04/2026 |
| Maduro out by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 59.0¢ | 100¢ | +$606 | $1,510 | 31/03/2026 |
| Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31? | No | 50.8¢ | 0¢ | +$352 | $2,000 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more? | No | 57.0¢ | 100¢ | +$143 | $570 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the government shutdown last 3 days or more? | Yes | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$100 | $9,900 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the DHS shutdown end after March 31, 2026? | Yes | 55.9¢ | 100¢ | +$40 | $337 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the government shutdown last 1 day or more? | Yes | 65.0¢ | 100¢ | +$27 | $683 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? | No | 92.7¢ | 100¢ | +$17 | $255 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the government shutdown last 1 day or more? | No | 25.0¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | $46 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the DHS shutdown end after March 31, 2026? | No | 54.0¢ | 0¢ | $-338 | $4,601 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the government shutdown last 14 days or more? | Yes | 3.5¢ | 0¢ | $-451 | $524 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the government shutdown last 10 days or more? | Yes | 5.0¢ | 0¢ | $-595 | $1,150 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the government shutdown last 7 days or more? | Yes | 9.3¢ | 0¢ | $-3,533 | $3,601 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? | Yes | 4.0¢ | 0¢ | $-10 | $40 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting? | Yes | 1.2¢ | 0¢ | $-60 | $60 | 18/03/2026 |
| Will Margot Robbie attend the Oscars? | No | 36.0¢ | 100¢ | +$244 | $137 | 15/03/2026 |
| Will KPop Demon Hunters win Best Animated Feature Film at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | 92.0¢ | 100¢ | +$240 | $2,760 | 15/03/2026 |
| Will Sinners win Best Original Score at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | 93.0¢ | 100¢ | +$210 | $2,790 | 15/03/2026 |
| Will Zootopia 2 win Best Animated Feature Film at the 98th Academy Awards? | No | 94.8¢ | 100¢ | +$208 | $3,792 | 15/03/2026 |
| Will "Frankenstein" win exactly 2 awards at the Oscars? | No | 81.0¢ | 100¢ | +$69 | $296 | 15/03/2026 |
| Will Sinners win Best Costume Design at the 98th Academy Awards? | No | 94.0¢ | 100¢ | +$49 | $761 | 15/03/2026 |
| Will Taylor Swift attend the Oscars? | No | 88.5¢ | 100¢ | +$48 | $427 | 15/03/2026 |
| Will Sentimental Value win Best Original Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards? | No | 97.2¢ | 100¢ | +$46 | $1,608 | 15/03/2026 |
| Will Ryan Coogler win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | 6.4¢ | 0¢ | +$15 | $128 | 15/03/2026 |
| Will F1 win Best Visual Effects at the 98th Academy Awards? | No | 96.3¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $24 | 15/03/2026 |
| Will the DHS shutdown last 60 days or more? | Yes | 28.0¢ | 100¢ | +$8,202 | $3,743 | 14/03/2026 |
| Will the DHS shutdown last 30 days or more? | Yes | 74.4¢ | 100¢ | +$4,490 | $13,065 | 14/03/2026 |
| Will the DHS shutdown last 21 days or more? | Yes | 92.8¢ | 100¢ | +$625 | $8,041 | 14/03/2026 |
| Will annual inflation increase by ≥2.7% in February? | Yes | 3.2¢ | 0¢ | $-130 | $136 | 11/03/2026 |
| Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% or more in February? | Yes | 11.9¢ | 0¢ | $-60 | $80 | 11/03/2026 |
| Will the February 2026 unemployment rate be 4.2%? | No | 70.0¢ | 100¢ | +$96 | $224 | 06/03/2026 |
| Will the February 2026 unemployment rate be 4.1%? | No | 90.0¢ | 100¢ | +$27 | $246 | 06/03/2026 |
| Will the February 2026 unemployment rate be 4.5%? | Yes | 5.0¢ | 0¢ | $-25 | $25 | 06/03/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in February? | Yes | 10.1¢ | 0¢ | $-1,309 | $1,308 | 01/03/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in February? | Yes | 4.8¢ | 0¢ | $-242 | $242 | 01/03/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February? | Yes | 4.2¢ | 0¢ | $-170 | $170 | 01/03/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in February? | Yes | 6.6¢ | 0¢ | $-256 | $256 | 01/03/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in February? | Yes | 2.1¢ | 0¢ | $-47 | $47 | 01/03/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in February? | Yes | 2.2¢ | 0¢ | $-45 | $45 | 01/03/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? | Yes | 21.2¢ | 0¢ | $-492 | $854 | 01/03/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in February? | Yes | 1.2¢ | 0¢ | $-24 | $24 | 01/03/2026 |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? | No | 93.1¢ | 100¢ | +$657 | $11,589 | 28/02/2026 |
| Maduro out by February 28, 2026? | Yes | 51.0¢ | 100¢ | +$490 | $510 | 28/02/2026 |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? | Yes | 87.3¢ | 100¢ | +$488 | $7,631 | 28/02/2026 |
| US recession in 2025? | No | 86.4¢ | 100¢ | +$159 | $1,863 | 28/02/2026 |
| Will SpaceX have 11 or more launches in February? | Yes | 86.4¢ | 100¢ | +$18 | $183 | 28/02/2026 |
| Ilhan Omar town hall attack staged? | No | 97.0¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | $5,876 | 28/02/2026 |
| Was Ilhan Omar sprayed with bacon grease? | No | 98.5¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $821 | 28/02/2026 |
| Was Ilhan Omar sprayed with urine? | No | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $88 | 28/02/2026 |