Win rate
57.1%
327 W / 246 L
Total PnL
$-567
realized $-1,637 · unrealized $1,070
Portfolio
$1,070
volume $1,856,186
Predictions
7,702
29.9/day · avg $241
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 22/10/2025 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Other 56% +$384
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch? | Yes | 45¢ | 58¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Base FDV above $4B one day after launch? | No | 58¢ | 60¢ | +$1 | win |
| Yellow FDV above $100M one day after launch? | Yes | 85¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | win |
| Perena FDV above $400M one day after launch? | Yes | 14¢ | 26¢ | +$12 | win |
| Base FDV above $6B one day after launch? | Yes | 34¢ | 31¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Opinion FDV above $1B one day after launch? | No | 83¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Based FDV above $200M one day after launch? | No | 90¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Lighter reach $10 before 2027? | Yes | 6¢ | 6¢ | +$1 | win |
| Over $10M committed to the Infinex public sale? | Yes | 9¢ | 0¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Opinion FDV above $2B one day after launch? | Yes | 3¢ | 0¢ | $-2 | loss |
Crypto 56% +$111
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 2¢ | 2¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Bitcoin Dominance hit 70% before 2027? | Yes | 17¢ | 20¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will stablecoins hit $500B before 2027? | Yes | 17¢ | 15¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will Pacifica launch a token by September 30 2026? | Yes | 16¢ | 16¢ | $-7 | loss |
| Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026? | Yes | 20¢ | 22¢ | +$9 | win |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on February 26? | Yes | 91¢ | 0¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on February 26? | No | 46¢ | 0¢ | $-7 | loss |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on February 26? | Yes | 92¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 25? | No | 89¢ | 0¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on February 25? | Yes | 14¢ | 0¢ | $-3 | loss |
Tech 60% +$93
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Meta dip to $640 in February? | Yes | 54¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Google dip to $320 in February? | Yes | 74¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Apple reach $284 in February? | Yes | 47¢ | 0¢ | $-6 | loss |
| Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | Yes | 6¢ | 0¢ | +$97 | win |
Sports 60% +$78
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Shohei Ohtani win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award? | Yes | 12¢ | 13¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Tarik Skubal win the 2026 AL Cy Young Award? | Yes | 26¢ | 28¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will New York Yankees win the 2026 American League Championship Series? | Yes | 21¢ | 20¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will San Diego Padres win the 2026 National League Championship Series? | Yes | 4¢ | 5¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 NL Central title? | Yes | 23¢ | 26¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will the New York Islanders win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? | Yes | 2¢ | 0¢ | +$10 | win |
| Will JB Bickerstaff win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year? | Yes | 55¢ | 7¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will Chet Holmgren win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Year? | No | 86¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will the Los Angeles Clippers make the NBA Playoffs? | Yes | 79¢ | 0¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Victor Wembanyama lead the NBA in blocks during the 2025–26 NBA season? | Yes | 81¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
Finance 80% +$59
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Beyond Meat (BYND) beat quarterly earnings? | Yes | 45¢ | 0¢ | +$43 | win |
| Will JPMorgan Chase (JPM) beat quarterly earnings? | No | 52¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | win |
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.9% in 2025? | No | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | win |
| Will Electronic Arts (EA) beat quarterly earnings? | Yes | 80¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will CoStar Group (CSGP) beat quarterly earnings? | Yes | 52¢ | 0¢ | $-8 | loss |
Politics 77% +$50
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the next elected US president be a woman? | Yes | 21¢ | 22¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31 and will the Democratic Party win the House in 2026? | No | 15¢ | 16¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Dan Koh be the Democratic nominee for MA-06? | No | 29¢ | 28¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Trump attend UFC 327? | Yes | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$21 | win |
| Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from February 20 to February 27, 2026? | Yes | 62¢ | 0¢ | $-4 | loss |
| Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from February 17 to February 24, 2026? | Yes | 85¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Trump say "Beautiful" first during the 2026 State of the Union address? | No | 90¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Trump say "IQ" during the 2026 State of the Union address? | Yes | 30¢ | 0¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Trump say "N Word" in January? | Yes | 2¢ | 0¢ | +$10 | win |
| Will Trump say "Too Late" during the 2026 State of the Union address? | No | 59¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
Esports 77% +$27
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will G2 Esports win the LEC 2026 Versus? | Yes | 60¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | win |
| Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - PGL Bucharest: European Closed Qualifier Playoffs | Inner Circle Esports | 40¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Valorant: ALT F4 vs Leviatán Academy (BO3) - VCL Latin America South Group Stage | Leviatán Academy | 56¢ | 100¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Counter-Strike: illwill vs BOSS (BO1) - Parken Challenger Championship Group B | illwill | 78¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Counter-Strike: Mindfreak vs Ground Zero (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Oceania Cup 1 Playoffs | Mindfreak | 60¢ | 0¢ | +$2 | win |
| Dota 2: OG vs BetBoom Team (BO2) - DreamLeague Stage 1 Group A | OG | 85¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will G2 Esports win the StarLadder Budapest Major 2025? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | +$16 | win |
| Valorant: Team Solid vs Team Envy (BO3) | Team Solid | 68¢ | 0¢ | +$2 | win |
| Dota 2: Team Falcons vs MOUZ (BO3) | Team Falcons | 83¢ | 100¢ | $-4 | loss |
| Counter-Strike: Vasco Esports vs Game Hunters (BO3) | Vasco Esports | 46¢ | 0¢ | $-9 | loss |
Elections 71% +$23
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 88¢ | 92¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist–Leninist) (CPN-UML) win between 20 and 29 seats in Nepal’s 2026 House of Representatives election? | Yes | 78¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | win |
| Will Nepali Congress (NC) win less than 80 seats in Nepal’s 2026 House of Representatives election? | Yes | 86¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | win |
| Will Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) win 150 or more seats in Nepal’s 2026 House of Representatives election? | Yes | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will James Talarico and John Cornyn be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election? | Yes | 81¢ | 40¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will André Ventura win the first round by 2–4%? | Yes | 12¢ | 0¢ | $-0 | loss |
Economy 40% +$21
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the March 2026 unemployment rate be 4.6%? | Yes | 8¢ | 0¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Texas vs. Mississippi State: O/U 45.5 | Over | 56¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
Weather 50% +$9
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be between 17 and 19 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026? | Yes | 20¢ | 22¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027? | Yes | 15¢ | 10¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on February 21? | Yes | 77¢ | 0¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on February 21? | Yes | 90¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 68-69°F on February 21? | Yes | 12¢ | 0¢ | $-1 | loss |
Culture 75% +$6
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will All the Empty Rooms win Best Documentary Short Film at the 98th Academy Awards? | No | 32¢ | 0¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will "Scream 7" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 60m and 65m? | Yes | 30¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will "Man on Fire" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? (January 6, 2026) | Yes | 17¢ | 0¢ | $-4 | loss |
| Will "Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 8m and 9m? | Yes | 85¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | win |
Mentions 50% $-5
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 2026? | Yes | 31¢ | 0¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 2026? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 21 to February 23, 2026? | Yes | 86¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 130-139 tweets from January 3 to January 5, 2026? | Yes | 18¢ | 0¢ | $-4 | loss |
Geopolitics 43% $-15
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US forces enter Iran by December 31? | Yes | 85¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026? | No | 37¢ | 60¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by June 30? | Yes | 88¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? | No | 35¢ | 50¢ | +$0 | win |
| France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? | Yes | 18¢ | 0¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? | Yes | 15¢ | 0¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by April 30? | Yes | 26¢ | 6¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Russia capture all of Rodynske by April 30? | Yes | 80¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Russia enter Verkhnia Tersa by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 31¢ | 0¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 22, 2026? | No | 57¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | loss |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Portland Trail Blazers make the NBA Playoffs? | Yes | 30.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $22 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the Los Angeles Clippers make the NBA Playoffs? | Yes | 79.0¢ | 0¢ | $-1 | $27 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Victor Wembanyama lead the NBA in blocks during the 2025–26 NBA season? | Yes | 81.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $33 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Luka Doncic lead the NBA in points during the 2025–26 NBA season? | Yes | 29.3¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $22 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the Toronto Raptors make the NBA Playoffs? | Yes | 89.4¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | $48 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Trump attend UFC 327? | Yes | 93.1¢ | 100¢ | +$21 | $676 | 11/04/2026 |
| Will annual inflation increase by ≥2.8% in March? | Yes | 91.6¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $72 | 10/04/2026 |
| Will the March 2026 unemployment rate be 4.6%? | Yes | 8.3¢ | 0¢ | $-1 | $30 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will the March 2026 unemployment rate be ≥4.7%? | Yes | 2.2¢ | 0¢ | $-9 | $30 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will the March 2026 unemployment rate be 4.3%? | Yes | 26.8¢ | 100¢ | +$31 | $78 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will the March 2026 unemployment rate be 4.5%? | Yes | 21.1¢ | 0¢ | $-2 | $60 | 03/04/2026 |
| Mavericks vs. Bucks: O/U 220.5 | Over | 52.5¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $35 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? | No | 35.0¢ | 50¢ | +$0 | $68 | 31/03/2026 |
| Foreign intervention in Gaza by April 30? | Yes | 3.3¢ | 3¢ | +$13 | $65 | 31/03/2026 |
| France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? | Yes | 18.5¢ | 0¢ | $-1 | $274 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the DHS shutdown end between March 28-31, 2026? | Yes | 16.5¢ | 0¢ | $-1 | $24 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? | Yes | 14.7¢ | 0¢ | $-1 | $32 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by April 30? | Yes | 26.0¢ | 6¢ | $-1 | $55 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the DHS shutdown end after March 31, 2026? | Yes | 60.1¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | $66 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Russia capture all of Rodynske by April 30? | Yes | 80.0¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | $20 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Russia enter Verkhnia Tersa by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 31.1¢ | 0¢ | $-1 | $22 | 31/03/2026 |
| Mavericks vs. Bucks: O/U 219.5 | Under | 26.2¢ | 0¢ | +$2 | $94 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will England win? | No | 78.1¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $20 | 21/03/2026 |
| Will Scotland win? | No | 68.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $21 | 21/03/2026 |
| Will France win? | No | 19.0¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | $21 | 21/03/2026 |
| Will Fluminense FC win on 2026-03-18? | Yes | 68.0¢ | 0¢ | $-1 | $44 | 19/03/2026 |
| Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 224.5 | Over | 52.8¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $21 | 18/03/2026 |
| Spread: Grizzlies (-3.5) | Nuggets | 90.9¢ | 0¢ | $-0 | $137 | 18/03/2026 |
| Lightning vs. Kraken | Lightning | 95.9¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $45 | 18/03/2026 |
| Lightning vs. Kraken: O/U 6.5 | Over | 87.2¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | $26 | 18/03/2026 |
| Penguins vs. Hurricanes: O/U 7.5 | Under | 73.7¢ | 0¢ | $-4 | $22 | 18/03/2026 |
| Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 225.5 | Over | 67.6¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | $23 | 18/03/2026 |
| Sabres vs. Golden Knights: O/U 4.5 | Under | 89.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $23 | 18/03/2026 |
| Wild vs. Blackhawks: O/U 7.5 | Over | 38.7¢ | 0¢ | $-2 | $22 | 17/03/2026 |
| Will Sarpsborg 08 FF win on 2026-03-15? | No | 60.1¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $22 | 15/03/2026 |
| Will All the Empty Rooms win Best Documentary Short Film at the 98th Academy Awards? | No | 32.0¢ | 0¢ | +$1 | $27 | 15/03/2026 |
| Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-03-15? | No | 37.1¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $34 | 15/03/2026 |
| Will the DHS shutdown last 60 days or more? | Yes | 85.7¢ | 100¢ | $-3 | $94 | 14/03/2026 |
| Will annual inflation increase by 2.2% in February? | Yes | 1.4¢ | 0¢ | +$3 | $21 | 11/03/2026 |
| Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in February? | Yes | 35.1¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $28 | 11/03/2026 |
| Will annual inflation increase by ≤2.1% in February? | Yes | 1.9¢ | 0¢ | $-1 | $60 | 11/03/2026 |
| Will annual inflation increase by 2.3% in February? | Yes | 16.0¢ | 0¢ | $-1 | $27 | 11/03/2026 |
| Will monthly inflation increase by 0.0% or less in February? | Yes | 3.4¢ | 0¢ | $-3 | $38 | 11/03/2026 |
| Fight to Go the Distance? | Yes | 29.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $22 | 08/03/2026 |
| Will Charles Oliveira win by KO or TKO? | No | 86.6¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $31 | 08/03/2026 |
| Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-03-07? | Yes | 69.6¢ | 0¢ | $-6 | $27 | 07/03/2026 |
| Will Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist–Leninist) (CPN-UML) win between 20 and 29 seats in Nepal’s 2026 House of Representatives election? | Yes | 78.3¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | $47 | 05/03/2026 |
| Will Nepali Congress (NC) win less than 80 seats in Nepal’s 2026 House of Representatives election? | Yes | 86.1¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | $22 | 05/03/2026 |
| Will Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) win 150 or more seats in Nepal’s 2026 House of Representatives election? | Yes | 92.9¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $61 | 05/03/2026 |
| CF Monterrey vs. Querétaro FC: O/U 1.5 | Over | 65.1¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $21 | 05/03/2026 |