Win rate
56.3%
192 W / 149 L
Total PnL
$3,131
realized $2,585 · unrealized $545
Portfolio
$545
volume $1,955,493
Predictions
1,734
13.0/day · avg $1,128
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 29/08/2024 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Other 56% +$1,593
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. anti-cartel strike/operation on foreign soil by March 31? | Yes | 87¢ | 100¢ | $-10 | loss |
| Will Venezuela give the US oil by January 31? | Yes | 66¢ | 100¢ | $-6 | loss |
| Fact Check: Epstein video confirmed real? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | $-7 | loss |
| Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? | No | 0¢ | 0¢ | +$300 | win |
| Will 7-9 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2025? | Yes | 14¢ | 0¢ | +$224 | win |
| Will Yoon be sentenced to prison in 2025? | No | 22¢ | 100¢ | +$210 | win |
| Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | +$50 | win |
| Will 25 or more SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2025? | No | 90¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy in 2025? | Yes | 17¢ | 0¢ | +$26 | win |
| Lee Jae-myung arrested in 2025? | Yes | 14¢ | 0¢ | +$18 | win |
Politics 51% +$798
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump declassifies UFO files before 2027? | Yes | 76¢ | 100¢ | +$21 | win |
| Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026? | No | 62¢ | 78¢ | +$8 | win |
| Trump suspends U.S. entry for more countries by by June 30? | Yes | 50¢ | 16¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Trump and Putin meet next in another EU country? | Yes | 16¢ | 1¢ | $-27 | loss |
| Elon out of Trump administration in 2025? | Yes | 47¢ | 100¢ | +$28 | win |
| Yoon out as president of South Korea in 2025? | No | 13¢ | 0¢ | +$14 | win |
| Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2025? | Yes | 79¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | win |
| Trump declassifies UFO files in 2025? | Yes | 84¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
| Trump x Khamenei talk in 2025? | No | 83¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Trump meet with Zelenskyy by December 31? | Yes | 50¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | loss |
Tech 100% +$72
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OpenAI becomes a for-profit in 2025? | No | 36¢ | 0¢ | +$26 | win |
| OpenAI becomes a for-profit before April 2025? | No | 79¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
| DeepSeek confirmed to have used banned Nvidia chips? | Yes | 4¢ | 0¢ | +$40 | win |
Crypto 88% +$59
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US national Solana reserve in 2025? | Yes | 17¢ | 0¢ | +$10 | win |
| Matt Gaetz Ethics Report made public in 2024? | No | 4¢ | 0¢ | $-109 | loss |
| Will Bitcoin dip below $100k by Sunday? | Yes | 83¢ | 100¢ | +$21 | win |
| Bitcoin above $98,000 on December 6? | No | 13¢ | 0¢ | +$94 | win |
| Bitcoin above $98,000 on December 6? | Yes | 33¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Bitcoin hit $100k by Sunday? | No | 72¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | win |
| Will Bitcoin hit $100k by Thursday? | No | 81¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will Bitcoin hit $100k by Friday? | No | 81¢ | 100¢ | +$27 | win |
Sports 100% +$19
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Brazil unban X before October? | No | 85¢ | 100¢ | +$19 | win |
Elections 43% $-170
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ukraine election held by December 31, 2025? | Yes | 26¢ | 0¢ | +$56 | win |
| Ukraine election called in 2025? | Yes | 42¢ | 0¢ | $-34 | loss |
| Will Han Duck-soo win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential election? | Yes | 7¢ | 0¢ | $-143 | loss |
| Ukraine election scheduled in 2024? | Yes | 6¢ | 0¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will Gallego win Arizona Senate election by 3% or more? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | +$45 | win |
| Will there be 155,000,000-160,000,000 votes cast in the U.S. Presidential Election? | Yes | 70¢ | 100¢ | $-6 | loss |
| Which party wins 2024 US Presidential Election? | Republican | 50¢ | 100¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will Fischer win Nebraska senate election by 7+ points? | No | 40¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | win |
| Will Republicans have 53 seats in Senate after election? | Yes | 90¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will 538 correctly call the Presidential Election? | No | 54¢ | 100¢ | $-3 | loss |
Geopolitics 58% $-500
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay | No | 71¢ | 84¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 73¢ | 69¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by January 31? | No | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Iran coup attempt by June 30? | No | 62¢ | 90¢ | +$16 | win |
| Will Iran strike Iraq by April 30, 2026? | No | 58¢ | 0¢ | +$9 | win |
| US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? | No | 84¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | No | 77¢ | 100¢ | +$23 | win |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? | No | 73¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | win |
| Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | No | 68¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | win |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? | No | 88¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? | No | 84.2¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | $22 | 10/04/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | No | 77.4¢ | 100¢ | +$23 | $79 | 31/03/2026 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? | No | 72.9¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | $48 | 31/03/2026 |
| U.S. anti-cartel strike/operation on foreign soil by March 31? | Yes | 86.6¢ | 100¢ | $-10 | $24 | 31/03/2026 |
| Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | No | 68.3¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | $29 | 31/01/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? | No | 87.6¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $40 | 31/01/2026 |
| Will Venezuela give the US oil by January 31? | Yes | 66.0¢ | 100¢ | $-6 | $35 | 31/01/2026 |
| Russia strike on Kyiv municipality by January 17, 2026? | Yes | 85.7¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $20 | 17/01/2026 |
| Russia strike on Kyiv municipality by January 10, 2026? | Yes | 93.5¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $34 | 17/01/2026 |
| Fact Check: Epstein video confirmed real? | Yes | 0.3¢ | 0¢ | $-7 | $25 | 10/01/2026 |
| Will Khamenei leave Iran by March 31? | No | 72.1¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | $34 | 09/01/2026 |
| Will Khamenei leave Iran by Jan 31? | No | 84.1¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | $49 | 09/01/2026 |
| Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? | No | 0.3¢ | 0¢ | +$300 | $106 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will 4-6 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2025? | Yes | 7.6¢ | 100¢ | +$241 | $32 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will 7-9 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2025? | Yes | 13.7¢ | 0¢ | +$224 | $194 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Yoon be sentenced to prison in 2025? | No | 21.9¢ | 100¢ | +$210 | $167 | 31/12/2025 |
| Israel withdraws from Gaza in 2025? | Yes | 26.5¢ | 0¢ | +$66 | $53 | 31/12/2025 |
| Ukraine election held by December 31, 2025? | Yes | 26.0¢ | 0¢ | +$56 | $52 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? | Yes | 0.1¢ | 0¢ | +$50 | $46 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will 13-15 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2025? | No | 80.6¢ | 100¢ | +$38 | $162 | 31/12/2025 |
| Elon out of Trump administration in 2025? | Yes | 46.7¢ | 100¢ | +$28 | $43 | 31/12/2025 |
| OpenAI becomes a for-profit in 2025? | No | 35.8¢ | 0¢ | +$26 | $40 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy in 2025? | Yes | 16.7¢ | 0¢ | +$26 | $43 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will 10-12 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2025? | No | 80.0¢ | 100¢ | +$22 | $89 | 31/12/2025 |
| Lee Jae-myung arrested in 2025? | Yes | 13.9¢ | 0¢ | +$18 | $21 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will SpaceX have between 180-199 launches in 2025? | No | 78.8¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | $118 | 31/12/2025 |
| Yoon out as president of South Korea in 2025? | No | 13.3¢ | 0¢ | +$14 | $42 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 11 launch by October 15? | Yes | 71.1¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | $32 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Trump meet with Ahmed al-Sharaa in 2025? | Yes | 60.2¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | $50 | 31/12/2025 |
| Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026? | No | 31.1¢ | 0¢ | +$12 | $22 | 31/12/2025 |
| US national Solana reserve in 2025? | Yes | 17.0¢ | 0¢ | +$10 | $45 | 31/12/2025 |
| Another SpaceX Dragon x NASA mission to the ISS in 2025? | Yes | 90.9¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | $109 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2025? | Yes | 78.8¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | $42 | 31/12/2025 |
| Trump declassifies UFO files in 2025? | Yes | 84.1¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $115 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will 25 or more SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2025? | No | 90.5¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $96 | 31/12/2025 |
| US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025? | No | 96.5¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $32 | 31/12/2025 |
| Trump x Khamenei talk in 2025? | No | 82.8¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $20 | 31/12/2025 |
| SpaceX Starship fully reusable in 2025? | No | 94.9¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $21 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Trump meet with Zelenskyy by December 31? | Yes | 50.2¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | $82 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will the Trump administration release any Epstein-related files on December 27, 2025? | No | 65.6¢ | 100¢ | $-6 | $24 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will the Trump administration release any Epstein-related files on December 28, 2025? | No | 72.2¢ | 100¢ | $-7 | $24 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will the Trump administration release any Epstein-related files on December 31, 2025? | No | 69.7¢ | 100¢ | $-8 | $28 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will SpaceX have 200 or more launches in 2025? | No | 90.8¢ | 100¢ | $-10 | $22 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? | Yes | 8.6¢ | 0¢ | $-11 | $31 | 31/12/2025 |
| Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025? | Yes | 4.5¢ | 0¢ | $-11 | $22 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas in 2025? | Yes | 1.3¢ | 0¢ | $-14 | $21 | 31/12/2025 |
| U.S. anti-cartel strike/operation on foreign soil by December 31? | No | 0.2¢ | 0¢ | $-14 | $27 | 31/12/2025 |
| New Pope in 2025? | Yes | 59.2¢ | 100¢ | $-14 | $101 | 31/12/2025 |
| Fact Check: Is Tyler Robinson queer? | No | 1.3¢ | 0¢ | $-22 | $25 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by December 31? | Yes | 25.1¢ | 0¢ | $-23 | $23 | 31/12/2025 |