PaulXBT

Elections 62% +$673 $2,262 vol · 17 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	91¢	94¢	+$13	win
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	15¢	37¢	+$32	win
Will Luís Marques Mendes win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?	No	30¢	100¢	+$432	win
Will Henrique Gouveia e Melo win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?	Yes	12¢	0¢	+$0	—
Will Catalin Drula be the next Mayor of Bucharest?	No	79¢	100¢	+$10	win
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest?	Yes	25¢	0¢	$-76	loss
Will Salvador Nasralla win the 2025 Honduras presidential election?	Yes	37¢	0¢	$-360	loss
Will José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election?	No	28¢	0¢	$-25	loss
Will Zohran Mamdani win by 10-20%?	Yes	50¢	0¢	$-137	loss
Will Jason Miyares win the 2025 Virginia Attorney General election?	No	43¢	100¢	+$213	win

Tech 100% +$421 $398 vol · 2 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?	No	41¢	100¢	+$397	win
Will Pope Leo XIV be the #1 searched person on Google this year?	Yes	30¢	0¢	+$24	win

Culture 50% +$283 $1,332 vol · 12 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Sinners win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards?	No	59¢	0¢	$-71	loss
Will Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein) win Best Supporting Actor – Motion Picture at the 83rd Golden Globes?	Yes	19¢	0¢	$-62	loss
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025?	Yes	19¢	100¢	+$582	win
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025?	No	55¢	100¢	+$142	win
Will 'A Minecraft Movie' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025?	Yes	45¢	100¢	+$109	win
Will 'Zootopia 2' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025?	No	92¢	100¢	+$5	win
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 101m and 112m?	Yes	8¢	0¢	$-88	loss
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 90m?	No	46¢	0¢	$-292	loss

Other 44% +$217 $11,960 vol · 96 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Starmer out by March 31, 2026?	No	84¢	100¢	+$86	win
Will Man City win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	9¢	0¢	$-22	loss
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga?	No	17¢	2¢	+$13	win
Will Roma finish in the top 4 in the 2025-26 Serie A season?	No	62¢	76¢	+$13	win
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	Yes	24¢	40¢	$-53	loss
Will Burnley finish in last place in the 2025-26 English Premier League?	No	64¢	82¢	$-15	loss
Will West Ham be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2025–26 season?	Yes	39¢	34¢	$-24	loss
Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2025–26 season?	No	68¢	68¢	$-25	loss
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	No	39¢	40¢	$-110	loss
Will Wolves finish in last place in the 2025-26 English Premier League?	Yes	59¢	71¢	+$30	win

Mentions 75% +$18 $327 vol · 4 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025?	No	96¢	100¢	+$1	win
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025?	Yes	25¢	0¢	$-72	loss
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 24 to October 31, 2025?	Yes	66¢	100¢	+$73	win

Economy 0% $-54 $54 vol · 1 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?	No	30¢	0¢	$-54	loss

Crypto 0% $-79 $79 vol · 2 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $92,000 and $94,000 on January 5?	No	61¢	0¢	$-49	loss
Will Anthony Joshua win by decision or technical decision?	Yes	14¢	0¢	$-30	loss

Politics 50% $-91 $745 vol · 5 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?	No	69¢	100¢	+$57	win
Will Wesley Hunt win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	Yes	14¢	0¢	$-107	loss
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	No	40¢	40¢	+$0	—
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people?	Yes	21¢	0¢	$-91	loss

Weather 0% $-227 $227 vol · 1 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will San Jose Earthquakes win on 2026-04-04?	No	57¢	0¢	$-227	loss

Sports 39% $-230 $1,142 vol · 19 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	Yes	20¢	25¢	$-1	loss
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	No	86¢	86¢	+$0	—
UFC Fight Night: Robert Valentin vs. Julien LeBlanc (Middleweight, Main Card)	Julien LeBlanc	39¢	0¢	$-56	loss
UFC Fight Night: Thiago Moises vs. Gauge Young (Lightweight, Prelims)	Thiago Moises	42¢	0¢	$-58	loss
UFC Fight Night: Kyler Phillips vs. Charles Jourdain (Bantamweight, Main Card)	Charles Jourdain	56¢	56¢	$-0	loss
UFC Fight Night: John Castaneda vs. Mark Vologdin (Bantamweight, Prelims)	John Castaneda	58¢	50¢	$-4	loss
UFC 327: Tatiana Suarez vs. Loopy Godínez (Women's Strawweight, Early Prelims)	Tatiana Suarez	59¢	100¢	+$52	win
UFC 327: Paulo Costa vs. Azamat Murzakanov (Light Heavyweight, Main Card)	Paulo Costa	31¢	100¢	+$47	win
UFC 327: Cub Swanson vs. Nate Landwehr (Featherweight, Prelims)	Cub Swanson	54¢	100¢	+$41	win
UFC 327: Mateusz Gamrot vs. Esteban Ribovics (Lightweight, Prelims)	Mateusz Gamrot	68¢	100¢	+$33	win

Geopolitics 56% $-365 $1,400 vol · 9 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	76¢	81¢	+$25	win
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	No	27¢	0¢	$-35	loss
Will Ukraine win on 2026-03-26?	Yes	33¢	0¢	$-316	loss
Iran strike on US military by February 28?	No	73¢	0¢	$-250	loss
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?	Yes	24¢	0¢	$-27	loss
Will no US x Venezuela military engagement occur in 2025?	Yes	74¢	100¢	+$64	win