Win rate
74.6%
41 W / 14 L
Total PnL
$39,878
realized $-80,255 · unrealized $120,132
Portfolio
$120,132
volume $1,420,369
Predictions
116
0.8/day · avg $12,245
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 25/02/2025 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Other 76% +$27,056
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xi Jinping out before 2027? | No | 84¢ | 93¢ | +$19,317 | win |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30? | No | 94¢ | 96¢ | +$15 | win |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | No | 77¢ | 50¢ | $-331 | loss |
| Will DOGE balance the budget in 2025? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | No | 91¢ | 100¢ | +$6,645 | win |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? | No | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$36 | win |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? | No | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$18 | win |
| Will Jesus Christ return in 2025? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Grok be the next CEO of X? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Obama arrested in 2025? | No | 95¢ | 100¢ | $-2 | loss |
Geopolitics 78% +$13,017
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | No | 85¢ | 91¢ | +$13,017 | win |
| Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | No | 95¢ | 94¢ | $-11 | loss |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 89¢ | 92¢ | +$26 | win |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | No | 77¢ | 60¢ | $-108 | loss |
| Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? | No | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$83 | win |
| Will India agree to stop buying Russian oil by August 31? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by August 31? | No | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by August 15? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will the US officially declare war on Iran before July? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
Weather 100% +$33
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from April 13 - 19? | No | 79¢ | 81¢ | +$9 | win |
| Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from April 13 - 19? | Yes | 77¢ | 77¢ | +$7 | win |
Sports 100% +$25
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China unban Bitcoin in 2025? | No | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$25 | win |
Tech 100% +$2
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OpenAI browser by August 31? | No | 82¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
Politics 67% $-239
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Board Member by June 30, 2026? | No | 89¢ | 90¢ | +$13 | win |
| Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026? | No | 86¢ | 92¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs? | No | 84¢ | 36¢ | $-575 | loss |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in April? | No | 92¢ | 91¢ | $-50 | loss |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult Vladimir Putin by April 30, 2026? | No | 97¢ | 97¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15? | No | 81¢ | 100¢ | +$327 | win |
| Will Trump visit China by May 8? | No | 98¢ | 97¢ | $-7 | loss |
| Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025? | No | 91¢ | 100¢ | +$91 | win |
| Will Trump jail Elon Musk? | No | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by October 31? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | loss |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15? | No | 81.0¢ | 100¢ | +$327 | $1,393 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Trump visit China by May 8? | No | 98.0¢ | 97¢ | $-7 | $913 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will DOGE balance the budget in 2025? | No | 96.1¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $110 | 31/01/2026 |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | No | 91.1¢ | 100¢ | +$6,645 | $106,448 | 31/12/2025 |
| Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025? | No | 91.0¢ | 100¢ | +$91 | $983 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? | No | 93.1¢ | 100¢ | +$83 | $1,200 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? | No | 92.8¢ | 100¢ | +$36 | $540 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will China unban Bitcoin in 2025? | No | 95.1¢ | 100¢ | +$25 | $664 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? | No | 93.0¢ | 100¢ | +$18 | $247 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Trump jail Elon Musk? | No | 95.4¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $40 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Jesus Christ return in 2025? | No | 97.5¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $50 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Grok be the next CEO of X? | No | 97.0¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | $110 | 31/12/2025 |
| Obama arrested in 2025? | No | 95.0¢ | 100¢ | $-2 | $150 | 31/12/2025 |
| Obama federally charged in 2025? | No | 92.9¢ | 100¢ | $-2 | $300 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? | No | 93.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $97 | 10/12/2025 |
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by October 31? | No | 95.8¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | $108 | 31/10/2025 |
| Xi Jinping out before October? | No | 97.7¢ | 100¢ | +$1,292 | $114,362 | 30/09/2025 |
| Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by August 31? | No | 94.9¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $152 | 31/08/2025 |
| Will India agree to stop buying Russian oil by August 31? | No | 98.6¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $242 | 31/08/2025 |
| OpenAI browser by August 31? | No | 82.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $20 | 31/08/2025 |
| Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together by August 31? | No | 95.1¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $106 | 31/08/2025 |
| Will Trump release more Epstein files by August 31? | No | 78.5¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | $50 | 31/08/2025 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by August 31? | No | 94.1¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $1,236 | 31/08/2025 |
| Zelensky in Alaska by Sunday? | No | 97.7¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $217 | 17/08/2025 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by August 15? | No | 96.9¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $202 | 15/08/2025 |
| Will Trump and Putin shake hands for 10 seconds or more? | No | 79.9¢ | 0¢ | $-50 | $50 | 15/08/2025 |
| Will Trump release more Epstein files before August? | No | 93.9¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $100 | 31/07/2025 |
| Will Trump repeal Presidential term limits? | No | 98.6¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $100 | 31/07/2025 |
| Will anyone be charged with insider trading Trump tariff announcement? | No | 98.9¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $100 | 30/06/2025 |
| Trump x Epstein files made public in June? | No | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $100 | 30/06/2025 |
| CHIPS Act repealed before July? | No | 99.4¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $100 | 30/06/2025 |
| Will the US officially declare war on Iran before July? | No | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $50 | 30/06/2025 |
| Trump's birthright citizenship ban unblocked before July? | No | 97.1¢ | 0¢ | $-85 | $85 | 30/06/2025 |
| Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? | No | 76.5¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | $30 | 20/04/2025 |
| Will Zelenskyy apologize to Trump by Friday? | No | 92.5¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $65 | 07/03/2025 |
| Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from April 13 - 19? | No | 95.0¢ | 97¢ | +$17 | $1,012 | 19/04/2026 |
| Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from April 13 - 19? | Yes | 76.9¢ | 77¢ | +$7 | $971 | 19/04/2026 |
| Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from April 13 - 19? | No | 79.0¢ | 81¢ | +$9 | $400 | 19/04/2026 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | No | 77.0¢ | 60¢ | $-108 | $912 | 22/04/2026 |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in April? | No | 92.0¢ | 91¢ | $-50 | $4,588 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult Xi Jinping by April 30, 2026? | No | 98.3¢ | 98¢ | $-3 | $1,517 | 30/04/2026 |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31? | No | 84.1¢ | 89¢ | +$53 | $915 | 30/04/2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | No | 77.0¢ | 50¢ | $-331 | $911 | 30/04/2026 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 89.0¢ | 92¢ | +$26 | $924 | 30/04/2026 |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30? | No | 94.0¢ | 96¢ | +$15 | $915 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult Pam Bondi by April 30, 2026? | No | 95.8¢ | 97¢ | +$6 | $800 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult Elon Musk by April 30, 2026? | No | 95.3¢ | 97¢ | +$5 | $300 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult Vladimir Putin by April 30, 2026? | No | 97.2¢ | 97¢ | $-1 | $123 | 30/04/2026 |
| Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | No | 95.2¢ | 94¢ | $-11 | $914 | 31/05/2026 |
| Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs? | No | 84.0¢ | 36¢ | $-575 | $1,029 | 30/06/2026 |