eightpenguins

Geopolitics 70% +$87,442 $280,182 vol · 40 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	Yes	86¢	100¢	+$260	win
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	67¢	74¢	+$13,582	win
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?	No	70¢	76¢	+$180	win
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?	Yes	61¢	100¢	+$1,300	win
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	68¢	94¢	+$4,889	win
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	Yes	20¢	100¢	+$1,554	win
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	51¢	59¢	+$464	win
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	46¢	74¢	+$21	win
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	No	33¢	0¢	$-3,482	loss
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?	Yes	29¢	41¢	+$586	win

Politics 64% +$50,139 $104,202 vol · 117 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April?	Yes	28¢	49¢	+$1,437	win
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?	Yes	28¢	0¢	$-1,711	loss
Will Trump say "Iran" during the White House Easter Egg Roll?	No	45¢	0¢	$-100	loss
Will Trump say "Iran" during the White House Easter Egg Roll?	Yes	55¢	100¢	+$148	win
Will Trump say "Congress" during Address to the Nation?	No	56¢	100¢	+$167	win
Will Trump say "Obama" during Address to the Nation?	Yes	26¢	100¢	+$411	win
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?	No	45¢	100¢	+$561	win
Will Trump say "Ayatollah" or "Khamenei" this week? (March 15)	Yes	31¢	0¢	$-854	loss
Will Trump say "Transgender" during Miami address?	No	54¢	0¢	$-22	loss
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 24?	Yes	26¢	0¢	$-1,617	loss

Tech 64% +$45,576 $94,098 vol · 67 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on April 10?	No	24¢	100¢	+$2,152	win
Will Claude by Anthropic be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on April 7?	No	22¢	100¢	+$292	win
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on April 7?	No	11¢	0¢	$-101	loss
Will Big AI be out as #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 8?	Yes	58¢	100¢	+$937	win
Will Big AI be out as #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 8?	No	84¢	0¢	$-166	loss
Will Big AI be out as #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 20?	Yes	73¢	100¢	+$137	win
Will ESPN Tournament Challenge be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 24?	No	97¢	100¢	+$77	win
Will Claude by Anthropic be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 24?	Yes	60¢	100¢	+$85	win
Will ChatGPT be back in as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 22?	Yes	60¢	100¢	+$23	win
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 20?	No	56¢	100¢	+$501	win

Other 46% +$16,395 $331,307 vol · 98 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
US strike on Mexico by January 31?	No	79¢	100¢	+$1,313	win
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	46¢	26¢	+$7	win
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	64¢	68¢	+$2,266	win
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?	No	64¢	94¢	+$908	win
Netanyahu out by March 31?	No	96¢	100¢	+$3,983	win
Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more?	No	57¢	100¢	+$9,863	win
Will Powell say "Dollar" 2+ times during March press conference?	No	58¢	0¢	$-79	loss
Will the government shutdown last 7 days or more?	Yes	70¢	0¢	$-1,405	loss
Will the DHS shutdown last 21 days or more?	No	40¢	0¢	$-1,537	loss
Will Vance say "Ass" during his Rocky Mount visit?	Yes	18¢	0¢	$-66	loss

Culture 65% +$13,632 $58,545 vol · 51 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will "Louis Theroux: Inside The Manosphere" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week?	Yes	30¢	100¢	+$2,519	win
Will "One Piece: Season 2" be the top US Netflix show this week?	No	54¢	100¢	+$741	win
Will "Louis Theroux: Inside The Manosphere" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?	No	87¢	100¢	+$3	win
Will "Louis Theroux: Inside The Manosphere" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week?	No	33¢	0¢	$-3,191	loss
Will "Virgin River: Season 7" be the top US Netflix show this week?	Yes	10¢	0¢	$-442	loss
Will "Mike Epps: Delusional" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? (February 3, 2026)	Yes	46¢	0¢	$-348	loss
Will "His & Hers" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? (February 3, 2026)	No	55¢	0¢	$-381	loss
Will "Finding Her Edge" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? (January 27, 2026)	No	73¢	100¢	+$220	win
Will "Finding Her Edge" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? (January 27, 2026)	No	77¢	100¢	+$48	win
Will "Agatha Christie's Seven Dials" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? (January 27, 2026)	Yes	45¢	100¢	+$404	win

Sports 43% +$3,865 $16,051 vol · 7 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will NCAA March Madness Live be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 20?	Yes	51¢	100¢	+$696	win
Will the United States win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?	Yes	24¢	0¢	$-2,561	loss
Will the United States win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?	Yes	16¢	0¢	$-1,720	loss
Will Norway win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?	No	22¢	0¢	$-1,005	loss
Will Cardi B perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?	Yes	49¢	100¢	+$5,726	win
Will Anthropic run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?	Yes	55¢	100¢	+$2,836	win

Finance 91% +$3,839 $3,204 vol · 11 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will SOLV Energy, Inc.'s market cap be greater than $5.4B at market close on IPO day?	Yes	50¢	100¢	+$527	win
Will EA say "Live Service" during earnings call?	No	60¢	100¢	+$274	win
Will Netflix say "Subscriber" during earnings call?	No	34¢	100¢	+$191	win
Will Netflix say "Warner Bros" during earnings call?	Yes	9¢	100¢	+$564	win
Will Nike say "Dividend" during earnings call?	No	21¢	100¢	+$1,535	win
Will Uber say "Market Share" during earnings call?	No	55¢	100¢	+$54	win
Will EA say "Mobile" during earnings call?	No	60¢	100¢	+$85	win

Esports 100% +$266 $399 vol · 1 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will EA say "Apex Legends" during earnings call?	No	60¢	100¢	+$266	win

Crypto 100% +$48 $951 vol · 1 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	No	57¢	60¢	+$48	win

Economy 100% +$8 $186 vol · 1 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Powell say "Recession" during September press conference?	No	48¢	100¢	+$8	win

Elections 0% $-1,341 $1,341 vol · 6 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will António José Seguro win the second round by 40–50%?	Yes	23¢	0¢	$-575	loss
Will João Cotrim Figueiredo win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?	Yes	18¢	0¢	$-538	loss
Will Marco Francis win the 2025 Seychelles presidential election?	Yes	2¢	0¢	$-21	loss
Will the Patriotic Electoral Bloc win the most seats in the 2025 Moldova parliamentary election?	Yes	10¢	0¢	$-53	loss
Will the Party of Action and Solidarity win the most seats in the 2025 Moldova parliamentary election?	No	10¢	0¢	$-122	loss
Will Kamala Harris say "Election" 3+ times on the Rachel Maddow Show on September 22?	No	13¢	0¢	$-32	loss