Win rate
61.3%
65 W / 41 L
Total PnL
$1,329
realized $-1,187 · unrealized $2,516
Portfolio
$2,516
volume $98,375
Predictions
148
3.1/day · avg $665
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 04/10/2025 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Other 74% +$1,003
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31? | Yes | 43¢ | 29¢ | $-80 | loss |
| Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Yes | 31¢ | 34¢ | +$3 | win |
| Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by April 30, 2026? | No | 55¢ | 96¢ | +$290 | win |
| Upper Austria Ladies Linz: Sloane Stephens vs Tatjana Maria | Sloane Stephens | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$17 | win |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | Yes | 70¢ | 99¢ | +$10 | win |
| Masoud Pezeshkian out by March 31? | No | 50¢ | 100¢ | +$76 | win |
| US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30? | Yes | 34¢ | 20¢ | $-6 | loss |
| BNP Paribas Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Jannik Sinner | Jannik Sinner | 77¢ | 100¢ | +$46 | win |
| BNP Paribas Open: Elina Svitolina vs Iga Swiatek | Iga Swiatek | 65¢ | 0¢ | $-18 | loss |
| BNP Paribas Open: Laura Siegemund vs Elina Svitolina | Elina Svitolina | 67¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | win |
Tech 100% +$186
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.5 released by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 76¢ | 94¢ | +$17 | win |
Elections 100% +$76
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | No | 75¢ | 100¢ | +$19 | win |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Yes | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$58 | win |
Geopolitics 54% +$32
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran leadership change by December 31? | No | 69¢ | 70¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | Yes | 77¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | win |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 63¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | Yes | 49¢ | 30¢ | $-276 | loss |
| US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 65¢ | 100¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | Yes | 39¢ | 6¢ | +$0 | win |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | Yes | 52¢ | 78¢ | +$53 | win |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | Yes | 63¢ | 64¢ | +$1 | win |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 12¢ | 46¢ | +$52 | win |
| Houthi military action against Israel by April 15, 2026? | No | 50¢ | 99¢ | +$299 | win |
Sports 100% +$14
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Jessica Pegula | Pegula | 84¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
| Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Amanda Anisimova | Pegula | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | win |
Crypto 100% +$9
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BNP Paribas Open: Peyton Stearns vs Solana Sierra | Solana Sierra | 77¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | win |
Politics 14% $-67
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 39¢ | 39¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? | Yes | 77¢ | 84¢ | $-24 | loss |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026? | Yes | 82¢ | 90¢ | +$15 | win |
| Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? | No | 78¢ | 77¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026? | Yes | 35¢ | 6¢ | $-6 | loss |
| Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? | No | 33¢ | 0¢ | $-48 | loss |
| Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together in 2025? | Yes | 6¢ | 0¢ | $-3 | loss |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by April 17? | Yes | 62.1¢ | 100¢ | $-8 | $114 | 17/04/2026 |
| Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by April 17? | No | 23.2¢ | 0¢ | $-813 | $813 | 17/04/2026 |
| GPT-5.5 released by April 23, 2026? | Yes | 60.9¢ | 87¢ | +$170 | $396 | 15/04/2026 |
| Upper Austria Ladies Linz: Sloane Stephens vs Tatjana Maria | Sloane Stephens | 92.0¢ | 100¢ | +$17 | $200 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | No | 75.0¢ | 100¢ | +$19 | $56 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | Yes | 70.0¢ | 99¢ | +$10 | $25 | 12/04/2026 |
| Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by April 10? | Yes | 98.8¢ | 100¢ | +$18 | $1,500 | 10/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? | No | 84.6¢ | 100¢ | $-8 | $423 | 10/04/2026 |
| Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by April 10? | Yes | 8.7¢ | 0¢ | $-76 | $81 | 10/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? | Yes | 21.7¢ | 0¢ | $-91 | $67 | 10/04/2026 |
| Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? | No | 33.0¢ | 0¢ | $-48 | $66 | 07/04/2026 |
| Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by April 3? | Yes | 20.4¢ | 0¢ | $-50 | $204 | 03/04/2026 |
| Iran leadership change by March 31? | No | 84.7¢ | 100¢ | +$241 | $1,330 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 21, 2026? | Yes | 50.0¢ | 100¢ | +$130 | $197 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 20, 2026? | Yes | 50.0¢ | 100¢ | +$108 | $157 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | No | 88.8¢ | 100¢ | +$88 | $3,164 | 31/03/2026 |
| Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026? | No | 74.0¢ | 100¢ | +$86 | $423 | 31/03/2026 |
| Masoud Pezeshkian out by March 31? | No | 50.0¢ | 100¢ | +$76 | $106 | 31/03/2026 |
| Ukraine hits Moscow by March 31, 2026? | No | 91.5¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | $100 | 31/03/2026 |
| US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30? | Yes | 34.0¢ | 20¢ | $-6 | $25 | 31/03/2026 |
| Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 57.0¢ | 100¢ | $-7 | $97 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | Yes | 3.9¢ | 0¢ | $-29 | $100 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 5? | Yes | 72.0¢ | 0¢ | $-38 | $58 | 31/03/2026 |
| Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by March 31? | Yes | 24.8¢ | 0¢ | $-121 | $235 | 31/03/2026 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 29.0¢ | 0¢ | $-152 | $973 | 31/03/2026 |
| Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by March 27? | No | 51.2¢ | 100¢ | +$882 | $943 | 27/03/2026 |
| Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by March 27? | Yes | 55.0¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $35 | 27/03/2026 |
| Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by March 27? | No | 25.0¢ | 0¢ | $-200 | $250 | 27/03/2026 |
| Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by March 23? | Yes | 60.5¢ | 0¢ | $-861 | $861 | 23/03/2026 |
| BNP Paribas Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Jannik Sinner | Jannik Sinner | 77.0¢ | 100¢ | +$46 | $154 | 22/03/2026 |
| BNP Paribas Open: Elina Svitolina vs Iga Swiatek | Iga Swiatek | 65.0¢ | 0¢ | $-18 | $68 | 19/03/2026 |
| BNP Paribas Open: Laura Siegemund vs Elina Svitolina | Elina Svitolina | 67.0¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | $30 | 13/03/2026 |
| BNP Paribas Open: Carlos Alcaraz vs Grigor Dimitrov | Carlos Alcaraz | 94.8¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $124 | 13/03/2026 |
| BNP Paribas Open: Terence Atmane vs Grigor Dimitrov | Grigor Dimitrov | 59.0¢ | 100¢ | +$763 | $1,098 | 11/03/2026 |
| BNP Paribas Open: Peyton Stearns vs Solana Sierra | Solana Sierra | 77.0¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | $30 | 11/03/2026 |
| Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-03-10? | Yes | 85.0¢ | 0¢ | +$1 | $100 | 10/03/2026 |
| Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-03-08? | No | 95.0¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | $152 | 08/03/2026 |
| Will AS Roma win on 2026-03-08? | No | 98.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $100 | 08/03/2026 |
| Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-03-07? | No | 81.1¢ | 100¢ | +$42 | $262 | 07/03/2026 |
| Will 1. FC Köln win on 2026-03-07? | No | 78.0¢ | 100¢ | +$26 | $100 | 07/03/2026 |
| Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-02? | No | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $37 | 02/03/2026 |
| Will Getafe CF win on 2026-03-02? | No | 91.0¢ | 0¢ | $-130 | $166 | 02/03/2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | Yes | 62.6¢ | 100¢ | +$45 | $85 | 28/02/2026 |
| Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Jessica Pegula | Pegula | 84.0¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $33 | 28/02/2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | No | 91.1¢ | 0¢ | $-121 | $206 | 28/02/2026 |
| Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Amanda Anisimova | Pegula | 92.0¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | $91 | 27/02/2026 |
| Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-02-24? | Yes | 79.0¢ | 0¢ | $-41 | $42 | 24/02/2026 |
| Will AS Roma win on 2026-02-22? | Yes | 75.0¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | $31 | 22/02/2026 |
| Will Parma Calcio 1913 win on 2026-02-22? | Yes | 72.0¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | $23 | 22/02/2026 |
| Will Getafe CF win on 2026-02-22? | No | 87.0¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $50 | 22/02/2026 |