Win rate
84.2%
171 W / 32 L
Total PnL
$1,594
realized $448 · unrealized $1,146
Portfolio
$1,146
volume $3,524,651
Predictions
3,819
20.0/day · avg $923
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 26/11/2025 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 18/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 18/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Other 96% +$317
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch? | No | 86¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | win |
| Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 by December 31, 2026? | No | 31¢ | 66¢ | +$11 | win |
| USD.AI FDV above $300M one day after launch? | No | 28¢ | 39¢ | +$7 | win |
| Ranger FDV above $15M one day after launch? | No | 12¢ | 0¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will Zcash reach $600 by December 31, 2026? | No | 73¢ | 55¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Hyperliquid dip to $12 by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 9¢ | 8¢ | +$0 | win |
| Ranger FDV above $60M one day after launch? | Yes | 8¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | win |
| Ventuals FDV above $1.5B one day after launch? | Yes | 5¢ | 7¢ | +$10 | win |
| StandX FDV above $3B one day after launch? | Yes | 4¢ | 4¢ | +$10 | win |
| Will Aster reach $2.20 by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 10¢ | 8¢ | +$15 | win |
Crypto 76% +$204
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will XRP dip to $1.00 by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 76¢ | 58¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will BNB reach $1000 by December 31, 2026? | No | 55¢ | 73¢ | +$7 | win |
| Will Solana dip to $20 by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 13¢ | 14¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Ethereum reach $4,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | 72¢ | 71¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | 66¢ | 60¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Extended launch a token by June 30 2026? | No | 50¢ | 83¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 8¢ | 10¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 21¢ | 21¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Ostium launch a token by December 31, 2026? | No | 22¢ | 22¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will Backpack launch a token by December 31, 2026? | No | 0¢ | 0¢ | +$5 | win |
Sports 85% +$164
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Nongshim RedForce win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? | Yes | 2¢ | 2¢ | +$7 | win |
| Will Lionel Messi play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 10¢ | 8¢ | +$9 | win |
| Will Quinn Hughes win the 2025–2026 NHL James Norris Memorial Trophy? | Yes | 1¢ | 1¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? | No | 42¢ | 44¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will any 2026 FIFA World Cup game scheduled in the U.S. be relocated abroad? | Yes | 6¢ | 8¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will the Detroit Red Wings make the NHL Playoffs? | No | 52¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will the Detroit Pistons finish as the #1 seed in the 2025–2026 NBA Eastern Conference? | Yes | 67¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will Michigan win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? | Yes | 35¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Mike Vrabel win NFL Coach of the Year? | No | 12¢ | 0¢ | +$11 | win |
| Will Alireza Firouzja win the 2025–2026 Speed Chess Championship? | Yes | 16¢ | 0¢ | $-1 | loss |
Elections 95% +$128
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? | Yes | 24¢ | 24¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Yes | 2¢ | 2¢ | +$13 | win |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Yes | 38¢ | 41¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election | Yes | 8¢ | 8¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Shin Yong-han win the 2026 Chungcheongbuk Province gubernatorial election? | Yes | 92¢ | 94¢ | +$8 | win |
| Will Park Heong-joon win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? | No | 71¢ | 78¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Christian Estrosi win the 2026 Nice mayoral election? | No | 80¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Grégory Doucet win the 2026 Lyon mayoral election? | Yes | 75¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Álvaro Roberto Ramos Chaves win the 2026 Costa Rican presidential election? | Yes | 10¢ | 0¢ | +$9 | win |
| Will PPSO win the most seats in the 2026 Costa Rican Legislative Assembly election? | No | 2¢ | 0¢ | +$4 | win |
Geopolitics 100% +$90
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Israel strike 8 countries in 2026? | Yes | 2¢ | 1¢ | +$7 | win |
| China x India military clash by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 14¢ | 14¢ | +$5 | win |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? | Yes | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? | Yes | 15¢ | 17¢ | +$0 | win |
| Iran Nuke before 2027? | Yes | 9¢ | 10¢ | +$0 | win |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | No | 60¢ | 70¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Russia before 2027? | Yes | 1¢ | 1¢ | +$5 | win |
| Ukraine joins NATO before 2027? | Yes | 3¢ | 3¢ | +$2 | win |
| Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI? | No | 45¢ | 46¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by March 31 2026? | Yes | 3¢ | 0¢ | +$18 | win |
Tech 67% +$58
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metamask FDV above $700M one day after launch? | No | 60¢ | 72¢ | +$22 | win |
| Metamask FDV above $3B one day after launch? | Yes | 5¢ | 5¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026? | No | 15¢ | 14¢ | +$16 | win |
| Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | Yes | 11¢ | 10¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will OpenAI be acquired before 2027? | Yes | 7¢ | 8¢ | +$1 | win |
| OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? | Yes | 22¢ | 22¢ | +$0 | win |
| Tim Cook out as Apple CEO by March 31? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | +$27 | win |
| Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 70% on the FrontierMath Benchmark? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Microsoft (MSFT) hit $500 before 2026?? | No | 49¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Google (GOOGL) hit $290 before 2026?? | Yes | 4¢ | 0¢ | +$4 | win |
Culture 88% +$56
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? | Yes | 4¢ | 3¢ | +$10 | win |
| Will Michael have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? | Yes | 9¢ | 0¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Danil "donk" Kryshkovets win the HLTV Player of the Year award? | Yes | 6¢ | 0¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? | No | 0¢ | 0¢ | +$34 | win |
| Will The Weeknd be the third most streamed Spotify artist for 2025? | Yes | 58¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will Lilo and Stitch be the second highest grossing movie of 2025? | No | 1¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Bad Bunny be the second most streamed Spotify artist for 2025? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | $-1 | loss |
Esports 100% +$25
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Top Esports win the LPL 2026 season? | Yes | 5¢ | 8¢ | +$25 | win |
Finance 80% +$24
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% before 2027? | Yes | 29¢ | 28¢ | +$4 | win |
| NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027? | Yes | 23¢ | 18¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.9% before 2027? | No | 30¢ | 27¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will Chewy (CHWY) beat quarterly earnings? | No | 20¢ | 0¢ | $-2 | loss |
Economy 100% +$19
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | +$9 | win |
| Will US GDP growth in Q4 2025 be between 2.0% and 2.5%? | Yes | 13¢ | 0¢ | +$1 | win |
Mentions 58% +$3
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 2025? | Yes | 3¢ | 0¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 2025? | Yes | 5¢ | 0¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 2025? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | $-8 | loss |
Politics 67% $-4
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump deport 200-300k people? | Yes | 16¢ | 17¢ | $-1 | loss |
| U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Japan" before 2027? | Yes | 20¢ | 20¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Donald Trump visit Taiwan in 2026? | Yes | 6¢ | 5¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? | No | 44¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Trump out as President before 2027? | Yes | 15¢ | 16¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Trump sell 1-100 Gold Cards in 2026? | Yes | 12¢ | 23¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Trump removed via 25th Amendment before 2027? | Yes | 8¢ | 8¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Josh Shapiro announce a Presidential run before 2027? | Yes | 12¢ | 7¢ | $-14 | loss |
| Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in 2026? | No | 5¢ | 5¢ | +$12 | win |
| Will Catalina Lauf be the Republican nominee for FL-19? | Yes | 47¢ | 46¢ | +$1 | win |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Detroit Red Wings make the NHL Playoffs? | No | 52.2¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $64 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will Hideki Matsuyama win the 2026 Masters tournament? | Yes | 1.5¢ | 0¢ | +$31 | $267 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Victor Wembanyama record a quadruple double this season? | Yes | 3.5¢ | 4¢ | +$25 | $133 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the Detroit Pistons finish as the #1 seed in the 2025–2026 NBA Eastern Conference? | Yes | 67.2¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $80 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Arkansas win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? | Yes | 2.0¢ | 0¢ | +$24 | $429 | 04/04/2026 |
| Will Purdue win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? | Yes | 6.1¢ | 0¢ | +$5 | $408 | 04/04/2026 |
| Will Kansas win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? | Yes | 1.1¢ | 0¢ | +$5 | $32 | 04/04/2026 |
| Will Louisville win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? | Yes | 0.3¢ | 0¢ | +$4 | $36 | 04/04/2026 |
| Will Michigan win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? | Yes | 35.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $199 | 04/04/2026 |
| Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by March 31 2026? | Yes | 2.8¢ | 0¢ | +$18 | $104 | 31/03/2026 |
| Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations by March 31? | Yes | 1.8¢ | 0¢ | +$6 | $22 | 31/03/2026 |
| Tim Cook out as Apple CEO by March 31? | Yes | 0.4¢ | 0¢ | +$27 | $23 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Grégory Doucet win the 2026 Lyon mayoral election? | Yes | 75.1¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $521 | 22/03/2026 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting? | Yes | 0.5¢ | 0¢ | +$9 | $99 | 18/03/2026 |
| Will Juliana Stratton be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Illinois? | Yes | 52.0¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | $88 | 17/03/2026 |
| Will Mike Vrabel win NFL Coach of the Year? | No | 12.0¢ | 0¢ | +$11 | $96 | 11/02/2026 |
| Will Hikaru Nakamura win the 2025–2026 Speed Chess Championship? | Yes | 15.0¢ | 0¢ | $-0 | $37 | 09/02/2026 |
| Will Alireza Firouzja win the 2025–2026 Speed Chess Championship? | Yes | 16.1¢ | 0¢ | $-1 | $29 | 09/02/2026 |
| Will Christian McCaffrey be the 2025-2026 NFL Comeback Player of the Year? | No | 2.9¢ | 0¢ | $-2 | $36 | 07/02/2026 |
| Will Álvaro Roberto Ramos Chaves win the 2026 Costa Rican presidential election? | Yes | 9.9¢ | 0¢ | +$9 | $166 | 01/02/2026 |
| Will PPSO win the most seats in the 2026 Costa Rican Legislative Assembly election? | No | 1.5¢ | 0¢ | +$4 | $23 | 01/02/2026 |
| Will Laura Virginia Fernández Delgado win the 2026 Costa Rican presidential election? | No | 9.0¢ | 0¢ | +$3 | $64 | 01/02/2026 |
| Will Kast win by at least 25%? | Yes | 8.2¢ | 0¢ | +$5 | $63 | 31/01/2026 |
| US government shutdown Saturday? | Yes | 9.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $36 | 31/01/2026 |
| Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 70% on the FrontierMath Benchmark? | Yes | 0.9¢ | 0¢ | $-1 | $30 | 31/01/2026 |
| Will US GDP growth in Q4 2025 be between 3.0% and 3.5%? | Yes | 25.5¢ | 0¢ | +$8 | $106 | 29/01/2026 |
| Will US GDP growth in Q4 2025 be between 2.0% and 2.5%? | Yes | 13.2¢ | 0¢ | +$1 | $22 | 29/01/2026 |
| Will Danil "donk" Kryshkovets win the HLTV Player of the Year award? | Yes | 6.4¢ | 0¢ | +$1 | $22 | 10/01/2026 |
| Will Gary Anderson win the PDC World Darts Championship? | Yes | 7.8¢ | 0¢ | +$2 | $36 | 03/01/2026 |
| Will Stephen Bunting win the PDC World Darts Championship? | Yes | 2.0¢ | 0¢ | +$21 | $29 | 03/01/2026 |
| Will Justin Hood win the PDC World Darts Championship? | Yes | 3.4¢ | 0¢ | +$21 | $43 | 03/01/2026 |
| Will Gerwyn Price win the PDC World Darts Championship? | Yes | 4.9¢ | 0¢ | +$5 | $37 | 03/01/2026 |
| Will Michael van Gerwen win the PDC World Darts Championship? | Yes | 5.5¢ | 0¢ | +$1 | $65 | 03/01/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2025? | Yes | 0.3¢ | 0¢ | +$24 | $102 | 01/01/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2025? | Yes | 0.3¢ | 0¢ | +$17 | $52 | 01/01/2026 |
| Will MicroStrategy hold 680k+ BTC by December 31? | Yes | 13.4¢ | 0¢ | $-0 | $59 | 01/01/2026 |
| Will the Steam Machine cost $700 or more at release? | No | 25.3¢ | 24¢ | +$58 | $105 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? | No | 0.3¢ | 0¢ | +$34 | $124 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 18? | Yes | 1.1¢ | 0¢ | +$15 | $29 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Gold close between $4600 and $4700 at the end of 2025? | Yes | 0.8¢ | 0¢ | +$13 | $37 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 29? | Yes | 1.7¢ | 0¢ | +$10 | $44 | 31/12/2025 |
| Epstein client list released in 2025? | Yes | 0.4¢ | 0¢ | +$9 | $31 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will The Weeknd be the third most streamed Spotify artist for 2025? | Yes | 57.7¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $151 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 12? | Yes | 1.1¢ | 0¢ | +$5 | $23 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Jimmy Kimmel be named in newly released Epstein files? | Yes | 7.8¢ | 0¢ | +$4 | $24 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Tom Hanks be named in newly released Epstein files? | Yes | 9.0¢ | 0¢ | +$3 | $23 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Trump announce Rick Rieder as next Fed Chair in 2025? | Yes | 0.6¢ | 0¢ | +$3 | $21 | 31/12/2025 |
| U.S. anti-cartel strike/operation on foreign soil by December 31? | Yes | 16.8¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $45 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Atlético Madrid advance to the round of 16? | Yes | 73.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $26 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Microsoft (MSFT) hit $500 before 2026?? | No | 49.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $29 | 31/12/2025 |