Johnsansculotte

Elections 67% +$4,994 $32,312 vol · 15 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	79¢	61¢	$-108	loss
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	4¢	0¢	$-123	loss
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?	Yes	61¢	100¢	+$3,019	win
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote?	Yes	74¢	0¢	$-147	loss
Trump wins every swing state?	No	85¢	0¢	$-170	loss
Will Guilherme Boulos win the 2024 São Paulo mayoral election?	No	84¢	100¢	+$845	win
Will Guilherme Boulos win the 2024 São Paulo mayoral election?	Yes	14¢	0¢	+$23	win

Politics 100% +$36 $845 vol · 4 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?	No	89¢	100¢	+$6	win
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?	No	87¢	100¢	+$8	win
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated?	Yes	96¢	100¢	+$12	win
Will Javier Milei attend presidential inauguration?	Yes	95¢	100¢	+$10	win

Geopolitics 33% +$36 $359 vol · 3 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?	Yes	40¢	100¢	+$147	win
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?	Yes	33¢	0¢	$-33	loss
Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in 2024?	No	74¢	0¢	$-78	loss

Finance 100% +$8 $76 vol · 1 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,300 (LOW) in June?	Yes	46¢	26¢	+$8	win

Culture 0% $-1 $217 vol · 1 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Fernanda Torres win Best Actress at the 2025 Oscars?	No	86¢	100¢	$-1	loss

Economy 75% $-24 $1,088 vol · 4 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be greater than 2%?	No	64¢	0¢	$-106	loss
No change in Fed interest rates after June 2025 meeting?	Yes	96¢	100¢	+$19	win
Will U.S. GDP growth be greater than 2% in Q1 2025?	No	89¢	100¢	+$25	win
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2025 meeting?	No	69¢	100¢	+$38	win

Crypto 50% $-67 $367 vol · 2 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in November?	No	85¢	0¢	$-71	loss
Bitcoin above $70,000 on November 8?	Yes	98¢	100¢	+$4	win

Sports 20% $-1,178 $3,199 vol · 5 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	12¢	9¢	$-583	loss
Brazil’s 12-month inflation below 5.50% for December 2025?	Yes	76¢	100¢	+$70	win
Will Fluminense win the FIFA Club World Cup?	Yes	5¢	0¢	$-302	loss

Other 37% $-1,778 $7,278 vol · 19 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	Yes	31¢	16¢	$-15	loss
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s April 2026 meeting?	No	78¢	95¢	$-28	loss
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s April 2026 meeting?	Yes	9¢	5¢	$-89	loss
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March?	No	71¢	100¢	+$1	win
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March?	Yes	14¢	0¢	$-66	loss
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil's March 2026 meeting?	No	93¢	100¢	$-5	loss
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil's March 2026 meeting?	Yes	13¢	0¢	$-1,011	loss
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of January?	No	26¢	100¢	+$23	win
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil's January 2026 meeting?	Yes	82¢	100¢	+$17	win
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil's January 2026 meeting?	No	11¢	0¢	$-21	loss