Win rate
60.2%
2763 W / 1827 L
Total PnL
$-84,250
realized $-189,389 · unrealized $105,139
Portfolio
$105,139
volume $55,048,957
Predictions
4,396
41.5/day · avg $12,523
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 09/04/2024 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Geopolitics 70% +$14,647
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will US or Israel strike Iran by June 30, 2026? | No | 31¢ | 0¢ | $-1,515 | loss |
| Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 16¢ | 7¢ | +$529 | win |
| US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? | Yes | 10¢ | 14¢ | +$399 | win |
| US forces enter Iran by December 31? | Yes | 62¢ | 100¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes | 24¢ | 22¢ | +$289 | win |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | No | 50¢ | 70¢ | +$282 | win |
| Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? | No | 89¢ | 93¢ | $-426 | loss |
| Will Israel strike 3 countries in 2026? | Yes | 35¢ | 32¢ | $-299 | loss |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | Yes | 13¢ | 9¢ | +$132 | win |
| Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? | Yes | 10¢ | 12¢ | +$6 | win |
Elections 58% +$4,903
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 2¢ | 1¢ | $-59 | loss |
| Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 50¢ | 60¢ | +$27 | win |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | 80¢ | 83¢ | $-41 | loss |
| Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | 50¢ | 40¢ | $-26 | loss |
| Trump declares election interference national emergency? | No | 80¢ | 81¢ | +$0 | — |
| America Party candidate on a federal or gubernatorial ballot in 2025? | Yes | 9¢ | 0¢ | $-235 | loss |
| Will Blagomir Kotsev win the next Bulgarian presidential election? | No | 94¢ | 91¢ | $-6 | loss |
| Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? | Yes | 43¢ | 42¢ | $-96 | loss |
| Will the Democratic Party win the NY-18 House seat? | Yes | 93¢ | 93¢ | $-1 | loss |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House | Yes | 43¢ | 34¢ | +$5 | win |
Sports 57% $-1,216
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Eurozone's 2026 Annual Inflation be at least 3.1%? | No | 90¢ | 47¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will inflation reach more than 3% in 2026? | No | 3¢ | 0¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Claudia Sheinbaum be the next leader out before 2027? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Henri Bontenbal become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands? | Yes | 29¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 58¢ | 56¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 89¢ | 93¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Haiti win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Senegal win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 92¢ | 94¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will New Zealand win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 4¢ | 2¢ | $-9 | loss |
| Will Qatar win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 97¢ | 97¢ | $-5 | loss |
Culture 43% $-1,921
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will One Battle After Another win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards? | No | 33¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | 55¢ | 100¢ | $-6 | loss |
| Will Sean Penn win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? | No | 47¢ | 0¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Chloé Zhao win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | 7¢ | 0¢ | $-78 | loss |
| Will Come See Me in the Good Light win Best Documentary Feature Film at the 98th Academy Awards? | No | 92¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will Bugonia win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | 13¢ | 0¢ | $-159 | loss |
| Will Teyana Taylor win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards? | No | 72¢ | 100¢ | $-12 | loss |
| Will "Marty Supreme" win no awards at the Oscars? | No | 86¢ | 0¢ | $-8 | loss |
| Will Leonardo DiCaprio win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? | No | 67¢ | 100¢ | $-8 | loss |
| Will Sentimental Value win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | $-111 | loss |
Tech 47% $-5,031
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Amazon acquire TikTok? | No | 97¢ | 93¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will Meta acquire TikTok? | Yes | 7¢ | 4¢ | $-15 | loss |
| Tesla and xAI merger officially announced by June 30? | No | 85¢ | 94¢ | +$3 | win |
| Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30? | No | 82¢ | 95¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? | No | 33¢ | 16¢ | $-9 | loss |
| Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? | Yes | 26¢ | 30¢ | $-18 | loss |
| Will Tesla deliver less than 350000 vehicles in Q1 2026 | Yes | 58¢ | 0¢ | $-371 | loss |
| Will Tesla deliver less than 350000 vehicles in Q1 2026 | No | 43¢ | 100¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Will OpenAI have the third-best AI model at the end of January 2026? | Yes | 4¢ | 0¢ | $-750 | loss |
| Will Tesla deliver between 375000 and 400000 vehicles in Q4 2025 | Yes | 13¢ | 0¢ | $-8 | loss |
Finance 45% $-5,216
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will SpaceX's market cap be between $900B and $1T at market close on IPO day? | Yes | 2¢ | 1¢ | $-347 | loss |
| Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027? | Yes | 4¢ | 3¢ | $-347 | loss |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? | Yes | 19¢ | 52¢ | $-674 | loss |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? | No | 91¢ | 48¢ | $-36 | loss |
| Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO day? | No | 18¢ | 6¢ | $-1,348 | loss |
| Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027? | No | 95¢ | 97¢ | $-430 | loss |
| Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? | No | 15¢ | 10¢ | +$273 | win |
| Remote IPO before 2027? | Yes | 10¢ | 38¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% before 2027? | No | 89¢ | 95¢ | +$1 | win |
| ECB rate hike in 2026? | Yes | 28¢ | 72¢ | $-4 | loss |
Weather 53% $-6,245
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027? | Yes | 10¢ | 10¢ | +$10 | win |
| Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027? | No | 59¢ | 64¢ | +$1 | win |
| 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027? | Yes | 10¢ | 10¢ | $-6 | loss |
| Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027? | Yes | 38¢ | 36¢ | $-173 | loss |
| 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027? | No | 89¢ | 90¢ | +$60 | win |
| Will there be 20 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026? | Yes | 14¢ | 14¢ | +$9 | win |
| 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? | No | 96¢ | 96¢ | +$10 | win |
| Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30? | Yes | 52¢ | 80¢ | +$35 | win |
| Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30? | No | 49¢ | 20¢ | $-576 | loss |
| Another 7.0 or above earthquake by January 31, 2026? | No | 37¢ | 100¢ | +$20 | win |
Economy 46% $-8,370
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? | No | 94¢ | 96¢ | +$8 | win |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting? | Yes | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$20 | win |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting? | No | 1¢ | 0¢ | $-23 | loss |
| US recession in 2025? | No | 87¢ | 100¢ | +$28 | win |
| US recession in 2025? | Yes | 7¢ | 0¢ | $-465 | loss |
| Bank of England decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after February 2026 meeting? | No | 91¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Bank of England decreases interest rates by 25 bps after February 2026 meeting? | Yes | 4¢ | 0¢ | $-4 | loss |
| Negative GDP growth in 2025? | No | 63¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Negative GDP growth in 2025? | Yes | 43¢ | 0¢ | $-168 | loss |
Politics 62% $-10,741
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 1¢ | 2¢ | $-4 | loss |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | No | 80¢ | 79¢ | $-59 | loss |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | No | 63¢ | 72¢ | $-103 | loss |
| Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 8¢ | 4¢ | $-254 | loss |
| Will Trump launch a coin by December 31? | No | 76¢ | 74¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Cory Booker announce a Presidential run before 2027? | Yes | 4¢ | 11¢ | $-239 | loss |
| Will Rahm Emanuel announce a Presidential run before 2027? | No | 94¢ | 87¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | No | 79¢ | 90¢ | +$515 | win |
| Trump out as President before 2027? | Yes | 10¢ | 16¢ | +$288 | win |
| Trump out as President before 2027? | No | 83¢ | 84¢ | +$235 | win |
Crypto 69% $-14,884
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | 96¢ | 98¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 37¢ | 56¢ | +$10 | win |
| Will Trove launch a token by March 31, 2026? | No | 29¢ | 0¢ | +$14 | win |
| Will Dick Schoof become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands? | Yes | 6¢ | 0¢ | $-20 | loss |
| Will Geert Wilders become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands? | No | 90¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026? | Yes | 41¢ | 28¢ | $-40 | loss |
| Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? | No | 86¢ | 51¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Spark launch a token by December 31? | No | 79¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Spark launch a token by March 31? | Yes | 45¢ | 0¢ | $-45 | loss |
Other 60% $-51,738
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time? | No | 76¢ | 66¢ | $-42 | loss |
| Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026? | No | 89¢ | 91¢ | +$2 | win |
| Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026? | Yes | 9¢ | 9¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.7m barrels per day in 2026? | No | 92¢ | 87¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1m barrels per day in 2026? | Yes | 89¢ | 93¢ | $-30 | loss |
| Will Based Polymarket revenue hit $5M before 2027? | No | 86¢ | 91¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Over $140B wagered on US sports betting in 2026? | No | 11¢ | 10¢ | $-8 | loss |
| Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026? | Yes | 43¢ | 37¢ | +$34 | win |
| Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.5% or higher before 2027? | No | 97¢ | 95¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will 2026 be the fourth-hottest year on record? | No | 94¢ | 95¢ | $-97 | loss |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? | No | 97.4¢ | 100¢ | +$273 | $15,050 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | No | 81.0¢ | 0¢ | $-19 | $1,813 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | Yes | 5.0¢ | 100¢ | $-71 | $408 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | Yes | 36.0¢ | 1¢ | +$24 | $394 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | No | 32.0¢ | 1¢ | +$23 | $469 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | No | 52.0¢ | 99¢ | +$1 | $39 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be László Toroczkai? | No | 98.9¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $230 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? | No | 99.3¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $442 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will annual inflation increase by 2.9% in March? | No | 97.8¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | $2,142 | 10/04/2026 |
| Will annual inflation increase by 3.0% in March? | Yes | 2.1¢ | 0¢ | +$3 | $24 | 10/04/2026 |
| Will annual inflation increase by ≥3.4% in March? | Yes | 11.0¢ | 0¢ | +$3 | $199 | 10/04/2026 |
| Will annual inflation increase by ≤2.6% in March? | No | 97.9¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $805 | 10/04/2026 |
| Will annual inflation increase by 2.7% in March? | No | 99.2¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $310 | 10/04/2026 |
| Will annual inflation increase by 2.8% in March? | No | 98.8¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $252 | 10/04/2026 |
| Will annual inflation increase by 3.0% in March? | No | 97.6¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | $210 | 10/04/2026 |
| Will annual inflation increase by ≤2.6% in March? | Yes | 0.7¢ | 0¢ | $-80 | $21 | 10/04/2026 |
| S&P 500 breaks its losing streak this week? | No | 46.0¢ | 0¢ | $-46 | $125 | 02/04/2026 |
| Will Spark launch a token by December 31? | No | 79.1¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $61 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? | No | 96.5¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $214 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Spark launch a token by March 31? | Yes | 45.5¢ | 0¢ | $-45 | $96 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026? | No | 94.7¢ | 100¢ | +$639 | $16,548 | 31/03/2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | Yes | 17.0¢ | 100¢ | +$577 | $3,540 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? | Yes | 91.0¢ | 100¢ | +$546 | $3,428 | 31/03/2026 |
| 2026 U.S. Senate Election: Democrats flip Republicans by March 31? | Yes | 85.4¢ | 100¢ | +$443 | $1,586 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | Yes | 8.7¢ | 0¢ | +$421 | $2,787 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by March 31, 2026? | No | 89.4¢ | 100¢ | +$410 | $24,905 | 31/03/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | Yes | 5.5¢ | 0¢ | +$393 | $1,109 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the government shutdown last 7 days or more? | Yes | 1.3¢ | 0¢ | +$391 | $716 | 31/03/2026 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 13.0¢ | 0¢ | +$351 | $2,031 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will any E.U. country strike Iran by March 31? | No | 95.5¢ | 100¢ | +$294 | $11,371 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? | No | 85.3¢ | 100¢ | +$273 | $19,543 | 31/03/2026 |
| Maduro out by March 31, 2026? | No | 80.0¢ | 0¢ | +$264 | $40,222 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the US officially declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026? | No | 98.2¢ | 100¢ | +$258 | $26,725 | 31/03/2026 |
| France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? | Yes | 9.8¢ | 0¢ | +$184 | $441 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? | Yes | 6.6¢ | 0¢ | +$148 | $1,065 | 31/03/2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? | No | 98.1¢ | 100¢ | +$119 | $9,001 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 6.0¢ | 0¢ | +$105 | $1,348 | 31/03/2026 |
| US x Venezuela military engagement by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 61.0¢ | 100¢ | +$88 | $2,616 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? | Yes | 4.0¢ | 0¢ | +$74 | $404 | 31/03/2026 |
| Trump out as President by March 31? | No | 98.3¢ | 100¢ | +$65 | $6,028 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $75 by end of March? | Yes | 96.0¢ | 100¢ | +$65 | $6,429 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of March? | No | 96.7¢ | 100¢ | +$60 | $6,041 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by March 31 2026? | No | 97.1¢ | 100¢ | +$58 | $1,355 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Tesla deliver between 375000 and 400000 vehicles in Q1 2026 | Yes | 15.0¢ | 0¢ | +$56 | $225 | 31/03/2026 |
| Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | No | 60.0¢ | 0¢ | +$52 | $2,280 | 31/03/2026 |
| Nothing Ever Happens: US Strike Edition | No | 46.0¢ | 100¢ | +$49 | $786 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026? | No | 81.0¢ | 88¢ | +$49 | $2,609 | 31/03/2026 |
| Crude Oil all time high by March 31? | Yes | 3.1¢ | 0¢ | +$47 | $213 | 31/03/2026 |
| NATO Article 5 by March 31? | No | 97.3¢ | 100¢ | +$46 | $3,618 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March? | No | 94.0¢ | 100¢ | +$43 | $4,473 | 31/03/2026 |