Araguchos

Geopolitics 55% +$2,414 $74,254 vol · 38 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?	No	13¢	0¢	$-112	loss
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 21, 2026?	No	2¢	0¢	$-170	loss
Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?	Yes	21¢	36¢	+$174	win
Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 9, 2026?	Yes	39¢	100¢	+$97	win
Military action against Iran ends by April 9, 2026?	No	1¢	0¢	$-53	loss
Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 9, 2026?	No	2¢	0¢	$-30	loss
Ukraine hits Moscow by April 30, 2026?	Yes	7¢	6¢	$-11	loss
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	No	35¢	46¢	+$27	win
Houthi military action against Israel by April 30, 2026?	Yes	25¢	10¢	$-16	loss
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 14, 2026?	Yes	9¢	0¢	$-448	loss

Other 44% +$1,095 $9,856 vol · 9 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Vance visit the Middle East by April 10?	Yes	2¢	0¢	+$910	win
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	44¢	62¢	+$509	win
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	46¢	38¢	+$105	win
Will Vance visit the Middle East by April 10?	No	86¢	100¢	+$64	win
Crude Oil all time high by April 30?	Yes	10¢	3¢	$-38	loss
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?	Yes	16¢	4¢	$-17	loss
Will gas hit (High) $4.25 by April 30?	Yes	58¢	8¢	$-56	loss
FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 4.5	Under	23¢	0¢	$-132	loss
FC Barcelona vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona: O/U 3.5	Under	53¢	0¢	$-250	loss

Elections 67% +$478 $2,292 vol · 6 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will voter turnout be 77–80% in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?	Yes	80¢	97¢	+$17	win
Will voter turnout be 77–80% in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?	No	10¢	3¢	$-53	loss
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	10¢	83¢	+$5	win
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	Yes	100¢	100¢	$-1	loss

Economy 0% $-2 $159 vol · 1 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?	Yes	67¢	100¢	$-2	loss

Politics 47% $-34 $6,274 vol · 17 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?	No	55¢	55¢	$-0	loss
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 30+ times during TPUSA events on April 17?	Yes	35¢	34¢	$-1	loss
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?	Yes	4¢	0¢	+$295	win
Trump announces new drug boat strike by November 9?	Yes	11¢	0¢	$-336	loss
Will Trump and Ahmed al-Sharaa shake hands for 15 seconds or more on November 10 2025?	Yes	11¢	0¢	$-55	loss
Will Donald Trump say "Million / Billion / Trillion" 12+ times during Syria President events on November 10?	Yes	36¢	0¢	$-252	loss
Trump announces new drug boat strike by November 7?	Yes	100¢	100¢	+$224	win
Will Trump say "NATO" during Hungary PM events on November 7?	Yes	72¢	100¢	+$51	win
Will Joe Biden say "Putin" during his appearance at the Ben Nelson Gala on November 7?	Yes	14¢	0¢	$-70	loss
Will Trump say "News" or "Media" 10+ times during "60 Minutes" on November 2?	No	98¢	100¢	+$2	win

Crypto 33% $-755 $7,329 vol · 54 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 on April 12?	Yes	34¢	0¢	$-125	loss
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET	Up	15¢	100¢	+$100	win
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 2PM ET	Down	15¢	0¢	$-23	loss
Will Ethereum dip to $2,150 on April 8?	Yes	15¢	0¢	$-42	loss
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Down	60¢	100¢	+$34	win
Solana Up or Down - February 16, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET	Down	20¢	0¢	$-18	loss
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Down	5¢	0¢	$-21	loss
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	Down	12¢	0¢	$-30	loss
XRP Up or Down - February 11, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET	Up	4¢	0¢	+$85	win
Solana Up or Down - February 11, 1PM ET	Down	21¢	0¢	$-124	loss