Win rate
43.0%
518 W / 688 L
Total PnL
$22,239
realized $11,715 · unrealized $10,524
Portfolio
$10,524
volume $1,235,116
Predictions
1,272
2.2/day · avg $971
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 06/07/2024 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | no |
Category breakdown
Elections 34% +$22,711
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 1¢ | 1¢ | +$60 | win |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House | Yes | 25¢ | 12¢ | +$10 | win |
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Yes | 30¢ | 16¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | Yes | 52¢ | 0¢ | $-900 | loss |
| Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? | No | 64¢ | 64¢ | $-12 | loss |
| Will Nancy Mace win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? | Yes | 40¢ | 36¢ | $-34 | loss |
| Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 18¢ | 26¢ | $-18 | loss |
| Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 42¢ | 16¢ | $-133 | loss |
| Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 75¢ | 84¢ | +$22 | win |
| Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? | Yes | 6¢ | 0¢ | $-174 | loss |
Politics 38% +$3,618
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 1¢ | 1¢ | +$11 | win |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | Yes | 18¢ | 100¢ | +$96 | win |
| Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? | Yes | 24¢ | 60¢ | +$1,742 | win |
| Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? | Yes | 65¢ | 69¢ | +$45 | win |
| Will James Talarico win the Texas Democratic Senate Primary by between 5% and 10.00%? | Yes | 24¢ | 100¢ | +$480 | win |
| Will Jasmine Crockett receive the most votes in the first round of the Democratic Senate primary in Texas? | Yes | 33¢ | 0¢ | $-49 | loss |
| Will Jasmine Crockett be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas? | Yes | 35¢ | 0¢ | $-342 | loss |
| Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? | Yes | 12¢ | 0¢ | $-122 | loss |
| Will Trump announce Chris Waller as next Fed Chair in 2025? | Yes | 29¢ | 0¢ | $-192 | loss |
| Will Trump nominate Dan Brouillette for Energy Secretary? | Yes | 17¢ | 0¢ | $-517 | loss |
Economy 25% +$1,150
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be greater than 3.5%? | Yes | 39¢ | 4¢ | $-88 | loss |
| Will US GDP growth in Q4 2025 be between 3.0% and 3.5%? | Yes | 25¢ | 0¢ | $-206 | loss |
| Wake Forest vs. Mississippi State | Mississippi State | 58¢ | 0¢ | $-261 | loss |
| Spread: Mississippi State Bulldogs (-4.5) | Memphis Tigers | 55¢ | 0¢ | $-96 | loss |
| Georgia vs. Mississippi State | Georgia | 76¢ | 100¢ | +$246 | win |
| Negative GDP growth in Q3 2025? | Yes | 15¢ | 0¢ | $-92 | loss |
| Texas vs. Mississippi State | Mississippi State | 28¢ | 0¢ | $-42 | loss |
| Arizona State vs. Mississippi State | Mississippi State | 32¢ | 100¢ | +$204 | win |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2025 meeting? | Yes | 20¢ | 0¢ | $-88 | loss |
| Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be greater than 2%? | Yes | 71¢ | 100¢ | +$1,744 | win |
Tech 67% +$357
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Google have the top AI model on August 31? | Yes | 28¢ | 100¢ | +$224 | win |
| Will GPT-5 be released by July 31? | Yes | 7¢ | 0¢ | $-107 | loss |
| Will Google have the top AI model on February 28? | No | 36¢ | 100¢ | +$240 | win |
Esports 60% +$240
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mavericks vs. Celtics: O/U 225.5 | Under | 51¢ | 100¢ | +$147 | win |
| Hornets vs. Celtics: O/U 216.5 | Under | 54¢ | 100¢ | +$230 | win |
| 76ers vs. Celtics: O/U 220.5 | Over | 51¢ | 0¢ | $-204 | loss |
| Pacers vs. Celtics: O/U 227.5 | Under | 55¢ | 100¢ | +$180 | win |
| League of Legends: Invictus Gaming vs. Bilibili Gaming | Invictus Gaming | 56¢ | 0¢ | $-112 | loss |
Weather 100% +$132
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tulsa Golden Hurricane vs. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers | Tulsa Golden Hurricane | 56¢ | 100¢ | +$132 | win |
Culture 100% +$130
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Demi Moore win Best Actress at the 2025 Oscars? | No | 34¢ | 100¢ | +$130 | win |
Crypto 40% +$97
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? | No | 18¢ | 78¢ | +$260 | win |
| Will Anthony Joshua win by decision or technical decision? | Yes | 36¢ | 0¢ | $-108 | loss |
| Stony Brook Seawolves vs. Bethune-Cookman Wildcats | Bethune-Cookman Wildcats | 60¢ | 0¢ | $-180 | loss |
| UEFA Nations League Round of 8: Netherlands vs. Spain | Netherlands | 31¢ | 0¢ | $-169 | loss |
| Coin Toss: Heads or Tails? | Tails | 51¢ | 100¢ | +$294 | win |
Finance 0% $-62
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Caterpillar (CAT) beat quarterly earnings? | No | 42¢ | 0¢ | $-62 | loss |
Geopolitics 40% $-441
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | Yes | 40¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? | Yes | 22¢ | 0¢ | +$5 | win |
| Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 2.5 | Over | 56¢ | 0¢ | $-362 | loss |
| Will Borussia Dortmund beat Stuttgart? | Yes | 52¢ | 0¢ | $-104 | loss |
| Will Barcelona beat Borussia Dortmund? | Yes | 48¢ | 100¢ | +$102 | win |
| US x Iran ceasefire by March 2? | Yes | 11¢ | 0¢ | $-81 | loss |
Sports 45% $-2,919
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? | Yes | 5¢ | 5¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 7¢ | 7¢ | +$7 | win |
| Will Kon Knueppel win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award? | Yes | 32¢ | 35¢ | +$65 | win |
| Colorado Rockies vs. Houston Astros | Colorado Rockies | 28¢ | 0¢ | $-110 | loss |
| Texas Rangers vs. Athletics | Texas Rangers | 56¢ | 0¢ | $-336 | loss |
| Warriors vs. Suns: O/U 220.5 | Over | 49¢ | 48¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Spread: 76ers (-1.5) | Magic | 51¢ | 0¢ | $-151 | loss |
| Spread: Thunder (-5.5) | Thunder | 59¢ | 0¢ | $-233 | loss |
| Boston Red Sox vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5 | Under | 52¢ | 0¢ | $-205 | loss |
| UFC 327: Jirí Procházka vs. Carlos Ulberg (Light Heavyweight, Main Card) | Jirí Procházka | 49¢ | 0¢ | $-241 | loss |
Other 41% $-6,950
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Yes | 5¢ | 0¢ | $-297 | loss |
| Will Atlético Madrid reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal? | Yes | 30¢ | 100¢ | +$305 | win |
| Will Atlético Madrid reach the UEFA Champions League final? | Yes | 37¢ | 36¢ | $-5 | loss |
| Will the Virginia redistricting referendum pass? | No | 14¢ | 14¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Leverkusen reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals? | Yes | 13¢ | 0¢ | $-130 | loss |
| FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 4.5 | Under | 59¢ | 0¢ | $-1,079 | loss |
| Spread: FC Barcelona (-2.5) | FC Barcelona | 18¢ | 0¢ | $-176 | loss |
| Liverpool FC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 3.5 | Over | 46¢ | 0¢ | $-136 | loss |
| Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament? | Yes | 16¢ | 0¢ | $-330 | loss |
| Chelsea FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 3.5 | Over | 41¢ | 0¢ | $-97 | loss |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Leverkusen reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals? | Yes | 13.0¢ | 0¢ | $-130 | $130 | 16/04/2026 |
| FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 4.5 | Under | 59.1¢ | 0¢ | $-1,079 | $1,092 | 15/04/2026 |
| Magic vs. 76ers | Magic | 48.0¢ | 0¢ | $-236 | $240 | 15/04/2026 |
| Spread: 76ers (-1.5) | Magic | 51.0¢ | 0¢ | $-151 | $153 | 15/04/2026 |
| Spread: FC Barcelona (-2.5) | FC Barcelona | 18.0¢ | 0¢ | $-176 | $180 | 14/04/2026 |
| Liverpool FC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 3.5 | Over | 46.0¢ | 0¢ | $-136 | $138 | 14/04/2026 |
| Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? | Yes | 56.0¢ | 100¢ | +$439 | $560 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Rasmus Hojgaard win the 2026 Masters tournament? | Yes | 0.7¢ | 0¢ | $-42 | $42 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Adam Scott win the 2026 Masters tournament? | Yes | 1.2¢ | 0¢ | $-74 | $74 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Bryson Dechambeau win the 2026 Masters tournament? | Yes | 7.0¢ | 0¢ | $-115 | $115 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament? | Yes | 16.2¢ | 0¢ | $-330 | $330 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Brooks Koepka win the 2026 Masters tournament? | Yes | 1.7¢ | 0¢ | $-85 | $85 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Tyrrell Hatton win the 2026 Masters tournament? | Yes | 0.7¢ | 0¢ | $-28 | $28 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Nicolai Hojgaard win the 2026 Masters tournament? | Yes | 1.4¢ | 0¢ | $-48 | $48 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 Masters tournament? | Yes | 7.7¢ | 0¢ | $-155 | $155 | 13/04/2026 |
| Spread: Thunder (-5.5) | Thunder | 59.0¢ | 0¢ | $-233 | $236 | 13/04/2026 |
| Boston Red Sox vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5 | Under | 52.0¢ | 0¢ | $-205 | $208 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 74.9¢ | 85¢ | +$27 | $207 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 75.0¢ | 84¢ | +$22 | $181 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 41.6¢ | 16¢ | $-133 | $683 | 12/04/2026 |
| UFC 327: Jirí Procházka vs. Carlos Ulberg (Light Heavyweight, Main Card) | Jirí Procházka | 49.0¢ | 0¢ | $-241 | $245 | 12/04/2026 |
| Chelsea FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 3.5 | Over | 41.0¢ | 0¢ | $-97 | $98 | 12/04/2026 |
| OKC breaks NBA single-season wins record? | Yes | 36.3¢ | 0¢ | $-74 | $74 | 12/04/2026 |
| Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5) | Real Madrid CF | 51.4¢ | 0¢ | $-284 | $287 | 10/04/2026 |
| Pistons vs. Hornets: O/U 223.5 | Over | 55.0¢ | 0¢ | $-271 | $275 | 10/04/2026 |
| Heat vs. Raptors: O/U 236.5 | Under | 51.0¢ | 0¢ | $-226 | $230 | 09/04/2026 |
| FC Barcelona vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 3.5 | Over | 50.0¢ | 0¢ | $-296 | $300 | 08/04/2026 |
| Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 3.5 | Over | 39.0¢ | 0¢ | $-191 | $195 | 08/04/2026 |
| Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-04? | Yes | 64.0¢ | 0¢ | $-253 | $256 | 04/04/2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | Yes | 40.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $480 | 31/03/2026 |
| Jazz vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 235.5 | Over | 48.0¢ | 100¢ | +$285 | $264 | 14/03/2026 |
| Chelsea FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 2.5 | Over | 64.5¢ | 0¢ | $-249 | $249 | 14/03/2026 |
| Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-14? | Yes | 59.0¢ | 0¢ | $-304 | $304 | 14/03/2026 |
| UCLA Bruins vs. Michigan State Spartans | Michigan State Spartans | 69.0¢ | 0¢ | $-206 | $207 | 14/03/2026 |
| Pelicans vs. Rockets: O/U 230.5 | Over | 56.4¢ | 0¢ | $-90 | $90 | 14/03/2026 |
| Spread: Michigan State Spartans (-5.5) | Michigan State Spartans | 49.0¢ | 0¢ | $-49 | $49 | 14/03/2026 |
| Nuggets vs. Spurs: O/U 237.5 | Over | 56.0¢ | 100¢ | +$209 | $266 | 13/03/2026 |
| Tennessee Volunteers vs. Vanderbilt Commodores | Tennessee Volunteers | 55.0¢ | 0¢ | $-165 | $165 | 13/03/2026 |
| Spread: VCU Rams (-8.5) | VCU Rams | 51.0¢ | 0¢ | $-300 | $300 | 13/03/2026 |
| Spread: Alabama Crimson Tide (-11.5) | Alabama Crimson Tide | 51.0¢ | 0¢ | $-305 | $306 | 13/03/2026 |
| Cavaliers vs. Mavericks: O/U 237.5 | Under | 50.3¢ | 0¢ | $-255 | $255 | 13/03/2026 |
| Hornets vs. Kings: O/U 225.5 | Over | 51.0¢ | 100¢ | +$245 | $255 | 12/03/2026 |
| Raptors vs. Pelicans: O/U 232.5 | Over | 54.9¢ | 100¢ | +$225 | $274 | 12/03/2026 |
| Nets vs. Hawks: O/U 226.5 | Over | 50.0¢ | 0¢ | $-250 | $250 | 12/03/2026 |
| 76ers vs. Pistons: O/U 222.5 | Under | 51.0¢ | 0¢ | $-230 | $230 | 12/03/2026 |
| Bucks vs. Heat: O/U 234.5 | Over | 51.9¢ | 0¢ | $-208 | $208 | 12/03/2026 |
| Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-11? | Yes | 27.0¢ | 100¢ | +$292 | $108 | 11/03/2026 |
| Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 3.5 | Over | 39.0¢ | 100¢ | +$244 | $156 | 11/03/2026 |
| Bulls vs. Warriors: O/U 227.5 | Over | 50.9¢ | 100¢ | +$196 | $204 | 11/03/2026 |
| Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 2.5 | Over | 61.0¢ | 100¢ | +$195 | $305 | 11/03/2026 |