Win rate
98.6%
282 W / 4 L
Total PnL
$672
realized $-2,827 · unrealized $3,499
Portfolio
$3,499
volume $216,136
Predictions
427
9.0/day · avg $506
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 26/01/2026 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Weather 99% +$217
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on April 17? | Yes | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on April 17? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on April 17? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on April 17? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on April 17? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on April 17? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 17? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on April 17? | Yes | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on April 17? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on April 17? | No | 95¢ | 99¢ | +$5 | win |
Politics 98% +$216
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$18 | win |
| Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from March 31 to April 7, 2026? | Yes | 47¢ | 0¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will White House post 140-159 posts from March 31 to April 7, 2026? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Trump say "Nuclear dust" during Monday news conference? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Trump say "Hell" 2+ times during Monday news conference? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from March 27 to April 3, 2026? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Trump say "Hormuz" during Address to the Nation? | Yes | 91¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | win |
| Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from March 24 to March 31, 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by March 31? | No | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 15th? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
Geopolitics 93% +$208
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | No | 76¢ | 70¢ | $-16 | loss |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 15? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Iran strike Poland by March 31? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| US strikes Iran by February 3, 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Bangladesh recognize Israel by June 30? | No | 88¢ | 94¢ | +$7 | win |
Other 100% +$171
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? | Yes | 96¢ | 95¢ | +$0 | win |
| Claude 4.7 released by March 15? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Brazil join the Board of Peace? | No | 91¢ | 100¢ | +$54 | win |
| New 10% US blanket tariff goes into effect by February 28? | Yes | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$38 | win |
| Will Claude 5 be released on February 6, 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Erika Kirk attend the 2026 State of the Union address? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu attend the 2026 State of the Union address? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Zhipu Robotics have robot dancers at the 2026 Spring Festival Gala? | No | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Unitree Robotics have robot dancers at the 2026 Spring Festival Gala? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
Mentions 100% +$153
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 4 to April 6, 2026? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? | No | 90¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 28 to March 30, 2026? | No | 87¢ | 100¢ | +$31 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? | No | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026? | No | 91¢ | 100¢ | +$32 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 14 to March 16, 2026? | No | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
Elections 100% +$16
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win the most seats in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election? | Yes | 93¢ | 99¢ | +$14 | win |
| Will GERB-SDS (GERB–SDS) win the most seats in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election? | No | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
Tech 100% +$7
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will OpenAI have the #1 AI model at the end of February 2026? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | win |
Economy 100% +$0
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
Finance 80% $-82
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 8? | Up | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by February 28, 2026? | Yes | 96¢ | 0¢ | $-99 | loss |
| Will Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by February 18, 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on April 17? | Yes | 96.0¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $144 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on April 17? | No | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $171 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on April 17? | Yes | 99.5¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $254 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on April 17? | Yes | 99.4¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $99 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on April 17? | Yes | 99.2¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | $1,389 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on April 17? | No | 97.8¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $275 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 17? | Yes | 98.4¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $216 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on April 17? | Yes | 96.5¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $149 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on April 17? | No | 98.6¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $124 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on April 17? | No | 94.5¢ | 99¢ | +$5 | $103 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 29°C on April 17? | Yes | 86.6¢ | 82¢ | $-5 | $94 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on April 17? | No | 98.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $98 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on April 17? | No | 99.4¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $99 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 31°C on April 17? | No | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $99 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on April 17? | No | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $79 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 41°C on April 17? | Yes | 99.2¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $100 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on April 17? | No | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $74 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 42°C on April 17? | No | 99.1¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $38 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 43°C or higher on April 17? | No | 98.8¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $27 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on April 17? | Yes | 98.6¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $93 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on April 17? | No | 98.8¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $87 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 34°C on April 17? | Yes | 95.9¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | $192 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 35°C on April 17? | No | 93.7¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $110 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on April 16? | Yes | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $297 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 36°C on April 16? | Yes | 96.4¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $70 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on April 16? | Yes | 99.2¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $243 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on April 16? | No | 99.3¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $281 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on April 16? | Yes | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $1,754 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C or higher on April 16? | No | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $196 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 36°C or higher on April 16? | No | 99.2¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $198 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on April 16? | Yes | 99.3¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $230 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on April 16? | Yes | 99.4¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $199 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Busan be 21°C on April 16? | Yes | 99.4¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $199 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on April 16? | Yes | 99.4¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $199 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on April 16? | No | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $110 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 24°C on April 16? | Yes | 99.1¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $99 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 34°C on April 16? | Yes | 98.8¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $70 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on April 16? | Yes | 99.3¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $121 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C on April 16? | No | 99.6¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $199 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on April 16? | No | 98.6¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $52 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on April 16? | No | 99.7¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $199 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 25°C on April 16? | No | 99.2¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $85 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on April 16? | Yes | 99.5¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $35 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on April 15? | No | 98.1¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $196 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 12°C on April 15? | Yes | 99.3¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $296 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on April 15? | No | 98.3¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $102 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C or higher on April 15? | No | 97.8¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $73 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on April 15? | Yes | 99.3¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $199 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on April 15? | No | 98.6¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $99 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on April 15? | No | 99.3¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $199 | 15/04/2026 |