Win rate
65.2%
210 W / 112 L
Total PnL
$5,908
realized $5,084 · unrealized $824
Portfolio
$824
volume $15,463,069
Predictions
3,252
16.8/day · avg $4,755
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 02/07/2025 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Crypto 63% +$1,561
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin hit $80k or $150k first? | 80k | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$237 | win |
| Will Bitcoin hit $150k by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | +$28 | win |
| Will Bitcoin hit $100k or $130k first? | 100k | 86¢ | 100¢ | +$104 | win |
| Will Base launch a token in 2025? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | +$60 | win |
| Will XRP reach $3.50 before 2026? | No | 77¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Dogecoin all time high before 2026? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | +$376 | win |
| Will Ethereum hit $6,000 by December 31? | No | 73¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? | No | 82¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | $-3 | loss |
Other 62% +$1,074
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Opensea FDV above $3B one day after launch? | Yes | 11¢ | 5¢ | +$16 | win |
| Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | Yes | 2¢ | 1¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will Larry Ellison/Oracle acquire TikTok? | No | 2¢ | 0¢ | +$13 | win |
| Monad market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? | No | 1¢ | 0¢ | +$200 | win |
| Will PSG win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1? | No | 14¢ | 4¢ | +$27 | win |
| Spread: Cuiabá EC (-2.5) | Cuiabá EC | 30¢ | 50¢ | +$23 | win |
| Spread: FC Porto (-1.5) | VfB Stuttgart | 86¢ | 0¢ | +$1 | win |
| Santiago: Santiago Rodriguez Taverna vs Henrique Rocha | Santiago Rodriguez Taverna | 16¢ | 0¢ | $-1 | loss |
| FC Barcelona vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 4.5 | Over | 33¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Games Total: O/U 3.5 | Under | 56¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | win |
Elections 75% +$659
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 1¢ | 1¢ | $-23 | loss |
| Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Yes | 1¢ | 1¢ | +$17 | win |
| Will GreenLeft–Labour win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | Yes | 12¢ | 0¢ | $-4 | loss |
| Will the Christian Democratic Appeal win the third most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | Yes | 17¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | Yes | 3¢ | 0¢ | +$95 | win |
| Another Canada election called in 2025? | Yes | 15¢ | 0¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Ana-Maria Ciceală be the next Mayor of Bucharest? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? | Yes | 10¢ | 0¢ | +$54 | win |
| Will Heather Humphreys win the Irish Presidential Election? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | $-20 | loss |
| Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | +$24 | win |
Sports 85% +$502
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 1¢ | 1¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? | Yes | 1¢ | 1¢ | +$9 | win |
| Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? | Yes | 26¢ | 2¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will Dua Lipa perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? | Yes | 6¢ | 0¢ | $-9 | loss |
| Will Cardi B perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? | No | 76¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Alabama win the 2026 College Football National Championship? | Yes | 6¢ | 0¢ | $-5 | loss |
| Will China unban Bitcoin in 2025? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | +$70 | win |
| Will Sam Soverel win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? | No | 1¢ | 0¢ | +$60 | win |
| Hyperliquid listed on Coinbase in 2025? | Yes | 51¢ | 0¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Max Verstappen finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? | Yes | 36¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | win |
Politics 68% +$120
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 2¢ | 1¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 1¢ | 1¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Trump nominate Stephen Miran as the next Fed chair? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will Wesley Hunt win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? | Yes | 2¢ | 0¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Jesse Plemons be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | 33¢ | 0¢ | +$10 | win |
| Will Trump’s approval rating be 42.0–43.9% on December 31? | Yes | 64¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Trump deport less than 250,000? | Yes | 2¢ | 0¢ | +$24 | win |
| Will Trump announce Chris Waller as next Fed Chair in 2025? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | $-24 | loss |
| Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in 2025? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | win |
Finance 83% +$74
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yieldbasis FDV above $500M one day after launch? | No | 46¢ | 0¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.6% in 2025? | Yes | 8¢ | 0¢ | $-9 | loss |
| Kraken IPO in 2025? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | +$22 | win |
Tech 80% +$69
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Meta acquire TikTok? | Yes | 7¢ | 4¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will OpenAI’s market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day? | Yes | 2¢ | 5¢ | +$12 | win |
| Will ChatGPT reach 1b monthly active users in 2025? | No | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | win |
| Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | Yes | 10¢ | 0¢ | $-0 | loss |
| OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI in 2025? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California in 2025? | Yes | 3¢ | 0¢ | $-2 | loss |
Culture 83% +$55
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | 7¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | win |
| Will 'Zootopia 2' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? | Yes | 8¢ | 0¢ | +$12 | win |
| Will 'A Minecraft Movie' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? | No | 38¢ | 0¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Bruno Mars be the top Spotify artist for 2025? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | $-0 | loss |
Mentions 42% +$2
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from October 10 to October 17, 2025? | Yes | 11¢ | 0¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 7 to October 14, 2025? | Yes | 2¢ | 0¢ | $-9 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025? | Yes | 3¢ | 0¢ | $-8 | loss |
Economy 45% $-31
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | No | 2¢ | 0¢ | +$1 | win |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? | Yes | 44¢ | 0¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will US GDP growth in Q3 2025 be between 3.0% and 3.5%? | Yes | 42¢ | 0¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | $-19 | loss |
| Will Powell say "Recession" during October press conference? | Yes | 30¢ | 0¢ | +$2 | win |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? | No | 2¢ | 0¢ | $-12 | loss |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2025 meeting? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | $-3 | loss |
| No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting? | No | 1¢ | 0¢ | +$6 | win |
Geopolitics 33% $-86
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| China x Taiwan military clash by December 31? | Yes | 2¢ | 0¢ | +$14 | win |
| Will Russia capture Slovainsk in 2025? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | +$2 | win |
| Israel x Turkey military clash in 2025? | Yes | 2¢ | 0¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Another US military action against Iran before 2026? | Yes | 17¢ | 0¢ | $-4 | loss |
| Will Israel strike 1 country in October 2025? | Yes | 88¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by October 31? | Yes | 2¢ | 0¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Russia capture Novopavlivka by December 31? | Yes | 38¢ | 100¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Nothing Ever Happens: Russian Capture Edition | Yes | 57¢ | 0¢ | $-6 | loss |
| US x Venezuela military engagement by September 30? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | $-50 | loss |
| Another US military action against Iran before August? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | $-12 | loss |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin hit $150k by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 1.0¢ | 0¢ | +$28 | $59 | 01/04/2026 |
| Spread: Cuiabá EC (-2.5) | Cuiabá EC | 30.4¢ | 50¢ | +$23 | $37 | 22/03/2026 |
| Spread: FC Porto (-1.5) | VfB Stuttgart | 85.7¢ | 0¢ | +$1 | $34 | 19/03/2026 |
| Santiago: Santiago Rodriguez Taverna vs Henrique Rocha | Santiago Rodriguez Taverna | 15.7¢ | 0¢ | $-1 | $35 | 19/03/2026 |
| FC Barcelona vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 4.5 | Over | 32.6¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $26 | 18/03/2026 |
| Games Total: O/U 3.5 | Under | 56.5¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | $71 | 17/03/2026 |
| Game Handicap: LY (-2.5) vs LOUD (+2.5) | LYON | 60.3¢ | 0¢ | $-11 | $32 | 17/03/2026 |
| Will Wagner Moura win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | 3.8¢ | 0¢ | +$20 | $139 | 15/03/2026 |
| Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | 7.2¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | $147 | 15/03/2026 |
| Will the U.S. collect less than $100b in revenue in 2025? | Yes | 88.2¢ | 100¢ | +$75 | $5,544 | 28/02/2026 |
| Will GTA 6 cost $100+? | Yes | 0.6¢ | 0¢ | +$64 | $416 | 28/02/2026 |
| Will the U.S. collect between $100b and $200b in revenue in 2025? | No | 52.0¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | $84 | 28/02/2026 |
| Will Drake perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? | Yes | 11.4¢ | 0¢ | +$2 | $48 | 09/02/2026 |
| Will Cardi B perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? | No | 76.0¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | $55 | 09/02/2026 |
| Will Dua Lipa perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? | Yes | 5.6¢ | 0¢ | $-9 | $38 | 09/02/2026 |
| Will MrBeast's next video get between 90 and 100 million views on week 1? | Yes | 91.4¢ | 100¢ | +$35 | $606 | 31/01/2026 |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | No | 1.7¢ | 0¢ | +$1 | $75 | 28/01/2026 |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? | Yes | 43.9¢ | 0¢ | $-0 | $57 | 28/01/2026 |
| Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | Yes | 2.7¢ | 0¢ | +$95 | $4,877 | 25/01/2026 |
| Will Jesse Plemons be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | 33.0¢ | 0¢ | +$10 | $89 | 22/01/2026 |
| Will Ole Miss win the 2026 College Football National Championship? | Yes | 12.6¢ | 0¢ | +$37 | $706 | 20/01/2026 |
| Will Alabama win the 2026 College Football National Championship? | Yes | 6.3¢ | 0¢ | $-5 | $67 | 20/01/2026 |
| Will Texas Tech win the 2026 College Football National Championship? | Yes | 8.6¢ | 0¢ | +$37 | $395 | 20/01/2026 |
| Will Texas A&M win the 2026 College Football National Championship? | Yes | 6.6¢ | 0¢ | +$19 | $96 | 20/01/2026 |
| Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the AFC North? | No | 62.0¢ | 0¢ | +$2 | $95 | 06/01/2026 |
| Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the AFC West? | Yes | 21.0¢ | 0¢ | +$1 | $21 | 06/01/2026 |
| Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the AFC West? | Yes | 5.7¢ | 0¢ | $-0 | $37 | 06/01/2026 |
| Will the New York Jets win the AFC East? | Yes | 3.4¢ | 0¢ | $-2 | $38 | 06/01/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by December 31, 2025? | Yes | 1.0¢ | 0¢ | +$269 | $1,139 | 01/01/2026 |
| Hyperliquid all time high by December 31? | Yes | 0.7¢ | 0¢ | +$152 | $106 | 01/01/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin hit $100k or $130k first? | 100k | 86.5¢ | 100¢ | +$104 | $2,594 | 01/01/2026 |
| Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? | Yes | 0.4¢ | 0¢ | +$68 | $235 | 01/01/2026 |
| Will Base launch a token in 2025? | Yes | 0.6¢ | 0¢ | +$60 | $481 | 01/01/2026 |
| Lighter market cap (FDV) >$14B one day after launch? | Yes | 0.6¢ | 0¢ | +$33 | $63 | 01/01/2026 |
| Will Solana reach $500 before 2026? | Yes | 0.7¢ | 0¢ | +$16 | $36 | 01/01/2026 |
| Will Pump.fun hit $0.01 in 2025? | Yes | 23.3¢ | 0¢ | +$15 | $206 | 01/01/2026 |
| Will XRP reach $3.20 before 2026? | No | 48.3¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $81 | 01/01/2026 |
| Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31? | Yes | 35.0¢ | 0¢ | +$3 | $115 | 01/01/2026 |
| Will XRP reach $3.50 before 2026? | No | 77.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $40 | 01/01/2026 |
| Will Trump’s approval rating be 42.0–43.9% on December 31? | Yes | 63.7¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $101 | 01/01/2026 |
| Will Microstrategy's mNAV dip to 1.00 by December 31? | Yes | 87.3¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $39 | 01/01/2026 |
| Pump.fun all time high by December 31? | No | 65.9¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | $197 | 01/01/2026 |
| Will Phantom daily builder revenue hit $300k in 2025? | Yes | 27.9¢ | 0¢ | $-9 | $113 | 01/01/2026 |
| Will Paxos win the USDH ticker? | Yes | 0.1¢ | 0¢ | $-43 | $41 | 01/01/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31? | Yes | 8.0¢ | 0¢ | +$54 | $2,224 | 01/01/2026 |
| Dogecoin all time high before 2026? | Yes | 0.3¢ | 0¢ | +$376 | $172 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? | No | 0.7¢ | 0¢ | +$375 | $1,965 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31? | No | 89.2¢ | 100¢ | +$369 | $28,825 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? | No | 92.0¢ | 100¢ | +$157 | $20,006 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will China unban Bitcoin in 2025? | Yes | 0.6¢ | 0¢ | +$70 | $155 | 31/12/2025 |