Win rate
70.7%
140 W / 58 L
Total PnL
$2,242
realized $-4,744 · unrealized $6,986
Portfolio
$6,986
volume $187,210
Predictions
339
6.6/day · avg $552
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 29/01/2026 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Other 75% +$3,001
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? | Yes | 95¢ | 95¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | Yes | 58¢ | 74¢ | +$31 | win |
| Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15? | Yes | 46¢ | 40¢ | $-16 | loss |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April? | Yes | 77¢ | 100¢ | +$23 | win |
| Netanyahu out by April 30? | No | 96¢ | 99¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30? | Yes | 33¢ | 76¢ | +$330 | win |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | Yes | 33¢ | 36¢ | $-10 | loss |
| Will 30-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 13-April 19? | Yes | 11¢ | 9¢ | $-6 | loss |
| Will the 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transits be 20 or more on April 19, 2026? | No | 83¢ | 76¢ | $-11 | loss |
| Will the 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transits be between 4 and 7 on April 19, 2026? | Yes | 44¢ | 6¢ | $-25 | loss |
Geopolitics 68% +$412
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes | 54¢ | 24¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | No | 28¢ | 0¢ | $-52 | loss |
| US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | Yes | 47¢ | 81¢ | +$61 | win |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? | Yes | 37¢ | 100¢ | +$188 | win |
| US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 53¢ | 100¢ | +$31 | win |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? | Yes | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by March 31, 2026? | No | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$21 | win |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | Yes | 34¢ | 72¢ | +$145 | win |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? | Yes | 27¢ | 6¢ | $-28 | loss |
| Will France strike Iran by April 30? | No | 95¢ | 99¢ | +$7 | win |
Tech 77% +$177
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | Yes | 18¢ | 10¢ | $-9 | loss |
| Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? | Yes | 11¢ | 4¢ | +$12 | win |
| Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30? | Yes | 66¢ | 22¢ | +$19 | win |
| Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30? | Yes | 7¢ | 0¢ | $-6 | loss |
| Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31? | Yes | 7¢ | 0¢ | $-19 | loss |
| Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31? | Yes | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$55 | win |
| Will NVIDIA reach $200 in February? | Yes | 54¢ | 0¢ | +$14 | win |
| Will NVIDIA dip to $168 in February? | No | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | win |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on February 28? | Yes | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | win |
| Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $160 end of February? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
Finance 67% +$108
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 66¢ | 69¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will SoFi Technologies (SOFI) be added to the S&P 500 by March 31, 2026? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will the NYSE trading floor be closed on Monday? | No | 82¢ | 100¢ | +$98 | win |
Politics 67% +$45
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026? | Yes | 83¢ | 90¢ | +$26 | win |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 19, 2026? | No | 79¢ | 82¢ | +$8 | win |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? | Yes | 24¢ | 28¢ | +$52 | win |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? | No | 91¢ | 100¢ | $-101 | loss |
| Will Trump say "The State of the Union is strong" during the 2026 State of the Union address? | Yes | 55¢ | 0¢ | $-37 | loss |
Elections 33% +$28
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 21¢ | 10¢ | $-12 | loss |
| Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 42¢ | 34¢ | $-8 | loss |
| Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections? | No | 63¢ | 100¢ | +$48 | win |
Culture 100% +$1
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | 74¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
Sports 64% $-1,839
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? | No | 90¢ | 98¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? | Yes | 7¢ | 6¢ | $-12 | loss |
| Athletics vs. Toronto Blue Jays | Toronto Blue Jays | 62¢ | 100¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Spurs vs. Raptors | Spurs | 67¢ | 100¢ | $-244 | loss |
| Spurs vs. Raptors | Raptors | 84¢ | 0¢ | $-1,508 | loss |
| Will Canada win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics? | Yes | 54¢ | 0¢ | $-323 | loss |
| Will Norway win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? | Yes | 83¢ | 100¢ | +$52 | win |
| Will the United States win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? | No | 86¢ | 100¢ | +$44 | win |
| Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? | Yes | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | win |
| Will the United States win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | No | 79.9¢ | 100¢ | +$183 | $907 | 15/04/2026 |
| US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 15? | Yes | 9.1¢ | 0¢ | +$22 | $53 | 15/04/2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? | No | 95.6¢ | 100¢ | +$17 | $910 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | Yes | 29.0¢ | 100¢ | $-31 | $80 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will 40-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 6-April 12? | Yes | 12.0¢ | 100¢ | +$820 | $112 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transits be less than 4 on April 12, 2026? | No | 94.6¢ | 100¢ | +$125 | $2,217 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 6-April 12? | No | 93.8¢ | 100¢ | +$37 | $482 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | Yes | 71.0¢ | 99¢ | +$14 | $36 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day April 8–12? | No | 89.0¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | $102 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transits be 20 or more on April 12, 2026? | No | 58.0¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $33 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transits be between 12 and 15 on April 12, 2026? | No | 97.5¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $167 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day April 8–12? | No | 98.2¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $147 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transits be between 8 and 11 on April 12, 2026? | No | 80.2¢ | 100¢ | $-18 | $53 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transits be between 4 and 7 on April 12, 2026? | No | 80.3¢ | 0¢ | $-30 | $86 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will 60 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 6-April 12? | Yes | 73.7¢ | 0¢ | $-423 | $579 | 12/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | Yes | 15.3¢ | 100¢ | +$346 | $81 | 07/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th? | No | 89.8¢ | 100¢ | +$28 | $364 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will 45 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 30-April 5? | Yes | 50.0¢ | 100¢ | +$32 | $55 | 05/04/2026 |
| Will 45 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 30-April 5? | No | 90.0¢ | 0¢ | +$1 | $48 | 05/04/2026 |
| Will 40-44 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 30-April 5? | Yes | 13.2¢ | 0¢ | $-37 | $37 | 05/04/2026 |
| Athletics vs. Toronto Blue Jays | Toronto Blue Jays | 61.5¢ | 100¢ | $-2 | $40 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31? | Yes | 97.4¢ | 100¢ | +$67 | $3,506 | 31/03/2026 |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31? | No | 97.6¢ | 100¢ | +$57 | $747 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31? | Yes | 96.1¢ | 100¢ | +$55 | $1,276 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? | No | 80.3¢ | 100¢ | +$51 | $193 | 31/03/2026 |
| Italy Judicial Reform Referendum passes? | No | 50.0¢ | 100¢ | +$50 | $50 | 31/03/2026 |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? | No | 98.0¢ | 100¢ | +$46 | $2,096 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31? | No | 87.7¢ | 100¢ | +$41 | $278 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31? | Yes | 41.3¢ | 0¢ | +$33 | $197 | 31/03/2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | Yes | 96.9¢ | 100¢ | +$26 | $984 | 31/03/2026 |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31? | No | 86.3¢ | 100¢ | +$26 | $474 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? | No | 93.2¢ | 100¢ | +$24 | $297 | 31/03/2026 |
| U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by March 31? | No | 78.7¢ | 100¢ | +$18 | $118 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will another country strike Iran by March 31? | No | 85.0¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | $85 | 31/03/2026 |
| US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31? | No | 90.1¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | $126 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March? | No | 68.3¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | $51 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) be added to the S&P 500 by March 31, 2026? | No | 95.0¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | $423 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the government shutdown last 4 days or more? | Yes | 95.6¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $31 | 31/03/2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? | No | 88.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $44 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Pure Storage (PSTG) be added to the S&P 500 by March 31, 2026? | No | 98.6¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $185 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Affirm Holdings (AFRM) be added to the S&P 500 by March 31, 2026? | No | 98.2¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | $39 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? | No | 87.4¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | $96 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will SoFi Technologies (SOFI) be added to the S&P 500 by March 31, 2026? | No | 98.8¢ | 100¢ | $-2 | $104 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31? | Yes | 6.5¢ | 0¢ | $-19 | $67 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 23, 2026? | Yes | 61.0¢ | 0¢ | $-21 | $21 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? | No | 75.2¢ | 0¢ | $-25 | $34 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 18, 2026? | No | 6.5¢ | 0¢ | $-26 | $26 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | No | 90.2¢ | 100¢ | $-68 | $231 | 31/03/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? | No | 91.5¢ | 100¢ | $-101 | $430 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | No | 18.1¢ | 0¢ | $-118 | $118 | 31/03/2026 |