Win rate
37.0%
20 W / 34 L
Total PnL
$15,274
realized $-4,586 · unrealized $19,860
Portfolio
$19,860
volume $452,867
Predictions
54
0.9/day · avg $8,386
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 05/06/2024 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | no |
Category breakdown
Geopolitics 57% +$13,920
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US forces enter Iran by December 31? | Yes | 74¢ | 100¢ | $-128 | loss |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | Yes | 33¢ | 16¢ | $-3,891 | loss |
| Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? | Yes | 12¢ | 12¢ | +$8 | win |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | Yes | 32¢ | 30¢ | $-78 | loss |
| Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 11¢ | 10¢ | $-14 | loss |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | Yes | 74¢ | 100¢ | +$8,747 | win |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | Yes | 40¢ | 100¢ | +$683 | win |
| US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026? | Yes | 4¢ | 0¢ | $-400 | loss |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? | Yes | 54¢ | 100¢ | $-1,223 | loss |
Other 17% +$5,827
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | Yes | 39¢ | 78¢ | +$7,725 | win |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | Yes | 41¢ | 55¢ | +$575 | win |
| Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Masters tournament? | Yes | 36¢ | 0¢ | $-300 | loss |
| Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? | No | 78¢ | 0¢ | $-1,400 | loss |
| Confirmed case of monkeypox in US by Aug 31? | Yes | 44¢ | 0¢ | $-160 | loss |
Sports 43% +$2,369
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? | Yes | 6¢ | 1¢ | $-497 | loss |
| Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? | No | 28¢ | 4¢ | $-413 | loss |
| Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? | Yes | 27¢ | 0¢ | $-585 | loss |
| Will Matthew Stafford win the 2025–26 NFL MVP award? | Yes | 82¢ | 100¢ | +$841 | win |
| Will Cardi B perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? | Yes | 69¢ | 100¢ | +$143 | win |
Economy 0% $-252
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2024 meeting? | Yes | 48¢ | 0¢ | $-252 | loss |
Politics 33% $-1,161
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August? | Yes | 62¢ | 100¢ | +$113 | win |
| JD Vance replaced as Republican VP nominee? | Yes | 12¢ | 0¢ | $-200 | loss |
| Biden resigns from presidency by August 31? | Yes | 23¢ | 0¢ | $-200 | loss |
| Will Mark Kelly be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee? | Yes | 12¢ | 0¢ | $-1,440 | loss |
| Will Joe Biden win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Yes | 29¢ | 0¢ | $-849 | loss |
| Will Joe Biden win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | No | 47¢ | 100¢ | +$178 | win |
| Will Biden announce resignation by July 31? | Yes | 7¢ | 0¢ | +$70 | win |
| Biden drops out by July 4? | Yes | 8¢ | 0¢ | $-100 | loss |
Elections 40% $-5,920
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Yes | 8¢ | 0¢ | $-150 | loss |
| Will Trump launch a coin before the election? | Yes | 72¢ | 100¢ | +$329 | win |
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 43¢ | 0¢ | $-5,988 | loss |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | Yes | 36.4¢ | 100¢ | +$1,312 | $800 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2026 Masters tournament? | Yes | 6.0¢ | 0¢ | $-43 | $50 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Chris Gotterup win the 2026 Masters tournament? | Yes | 2.4¢ | 0¢ | $-50 | $50 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? | Yes | 8.1¢ | 0¢ | $-50 | $50 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Sam Burns win the 2026 Masters tournament? | Yes | 5.9¢ | 0¢ | $-79 | $100 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Brooks Koepka win the 2026 Masters tournament? | Yes | 5.3¢ | 0¢ | $-100 | $100 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Tyrrell Hatton win the 2026 Masters tournament? | Yes | 5.4¢ | 0¢ | $-100 | $100 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Bryson Dechambeau win the 2026 Masters tournament? | Yes | 7.3¢ | 0¢ | $-192 | $200 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Masters tournament? | Yes | 36.4¢ | 0¢ | $-300 | $300 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? | No | 78.0¢ | 0¢ | $-1,400 | $1,400 | 13/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 10? | Yes | 77.0¢ | 100¢ | +$24 | $100 | 10/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | Yes | 45.3¢ | 100¢ | +$1,912 | $1,797 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will Michigan win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? | Yes | 23.7¢ | 100¢ | +$3,060 | $950 | 04/04/2026 |
| Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? | Yes | 27.3¢ | 0¢ | $-585 | $585 | 04/04/2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | Yes | 74.5¢ | 100¢ | +$8,747 | $25,982 | 31/03/2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | Yes | 40.4¢ | 100¢ | +$683 | $467 | 28/02/2026 |
| Will Matthew Stafford win the 2025–26 NFL MVP award? | Yes | 82.1¢ | 100¢ | +$841 | $3,847 | 18/02/2026 |
| Will Cardi B perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? | Yes | 69.4¢ | 100¢ | +$143 | $10,053 | 09/02/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026? | Yes | 4.2¢ | 0¢ | $-400 | $400 | 31/01/2026 |
| Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Yes | 8.5¢ | 0¢ | $-150 | $150 | 04/11/2025 |
| Will Michelle Obama win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 2.1¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | $25 | 05/11/2024 |
| Will any other Democratic Politician win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 11.8¢ | 0¢ | $-110 | $200 | 05/11/2024 |
| Will Trump launch a coin before the election? | Yes | 72.0¢ | 100¢ | +$329 | $2,767 | 04/11/2024 |
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 42.5¢ | 0¢ | $-5,988 | $7,978 | 04/11/2024 |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2024 meeting? | Yes | 47.7¢ | 0¢ | $-252 | $252 | 18/09/2024 |
| RFK Jr. endorses Trump in August? | Yes | 61.9¢ | 100¢ | +$113 | $187 | 31/08/2024 |
| Confirmed case of monkeypox in US by Aug 31? | Yes | 44.0¢ | 0¢ | $-160 | $160 | 31/08/2024 |
| JD Vance replaced as Republican VP nominee? | Yes | 11.5¢ | 0¢ | $-200 | $200 | 31/08/2024 |
| Biden resigns from presidency by August 31? | Yes | 22.7¢ | 0¢ | $-200 | $200 | 31/08/2024 |
| Will Tim Walz be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee? | Yes | 46.7¢ | 100¢ | +$1,226 | $2,078 | 22/08/2024 |
| Will Andy Beshear be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee? | Yes | 9.9¢ | 0¢ | $-50 | $50 | 22/08/2024 |
| Will Pete Buttigieg be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee? | Yes | 7.3¢ | 0¢ | $-80 | $112 | 22/08/2024 |
| Will Josh Shapiro be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee? | Yes | 68.0¢ | 0¢ | $-233 | $2,685 | 22/08/2024 |
| Will Mark Kelly be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee? | Yes | 12.5¢ | 0¢ | $-1,440 | $1,256 | 22/08/2024 |
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Yes | 86.9¢ | 100¢ | +$626 | $6,520 | 19/08/2024 |
| Will Michelle Obama win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Yes | 4.0¢ | 0¢ | $-25 | $189 | 19/08/2024 |
| Will Joe Biden win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | No | 47.5¢ | 100¢ | +$178 | $3,255 | 18/08/2024 |
| Will someone else win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Yes | 21.5¢ | 0¢ | $-195 | $350 | 18/08/2024 |
| Will Joe Biden win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Yes | 29.0¢ | 0¢ | $-849 | $1,507 | 18/08/2024 |
| Will Biden announce resignation by July 31? | Yes | 6.9¢ | 0¢ | +$70 | $100 | 31/07/2024 |
| Biden drops out by July 4? | Yes | 7.9¢ | 0¢ | $-100 | $100 | 04/07/2024 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? | Yes | 53.8¢ | 100¢ | $-1,223 | $4,077 | 01/01/1970 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | Yes | 40.8¢ | 55¢ | +$575 | $1,700 | 30/04/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | Yes | 64.3¢ | 100¢ | +$2,829 | $9,907 | 30/04/2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | Yes | 39.4¢ | 78¢ | +$7,725 | $8,186 | 31/05/2026 |
| Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? | Yes | 11.6¢ | 2¢ | $-181 | $216 | 10/06/2026 |
| Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? | No | 28.0¢ | 4¢ | $-413 | $500 | 10/06/2026 |
| Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? | Yes | 6.1¢ | 1¢ | $-497 | $505 | 10/06/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026? | Yes | 55.9¢ | 100¢ | +$4,138 | $5,246 | 30/06/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | Yes | 33.0¢ | 16¢ | $-3,891 | $6,884 | 31/12/2026 |