Win rate
81.7%
152 W / 34 L
Total PnL
$6,928
realized $-31,334 · unrealized $38,262
Portfolio
$38,262
volume $588,093
Predictions
208
6.6/day · avg $2,827
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 03/03/2026 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Geopolitics 82% +$4,636
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | No | 41¢ | 35¢ | $-5 | loss |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 38¢ | 38¢ | $-5 | loss |
| Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 7, 2026? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-137 | loss |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | $-77 | loss |
| Military action against Iran ends on April 9, 2026? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$145 | win |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | No | 97¢ | 99¢ | +$82 | win |
| Military action against Iran ends by April 21, 2026? | Yes | 87¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Military action against Iran continues through April 30, 2026? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$55 | win |
| Israel military action against Iranian Power Plant by April 30? | Yes | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$52 | win |
Politics 89% +$1,430
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? | Yes | 76¢ | 84¢ | +$294 | win |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | $-1,260 | loss |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026? | No | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$63 | win |
| Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on April 8? | Yes | 96¢ | 100¢ | $-18 | loss |
| Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on April 2? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Trump talk to Mohammed bin Salman in March? | Yes | 45¢ | 100¢ | +$891 | win |
| Will Trump talk to Mark Rutte in March? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$62 | win |
| Will Trump and Melania's remarks not air? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Trump say "Six Seven" this week? (March 29) | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on March 24? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
Other 83% +$917
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch? | No | 73¢ | 100¢ | $-6 | loss |
| EdgeX FDV above $300M one day after launch? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | win |
| Will A-Train die in "The Boys: Season 5"? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? | No | 96¢ | 99¢ | +$37 | win |
| Claude 4.7 released by April 30? | Yes | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of April 2026? | Yes | 85¢ | 90¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? | Yes | 91¢ | 94¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will a Claude Mythos model be released by April 30, 2026? | No | 89¢ | 99¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15? | No | 67¢ | 100¢ | +$148 | win |
Mentions 50% +$22
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Khamenei post 0-19 posts from March 27 to April 3, 2026? | No | 22¢ | 0¢ | +$16 | win |
| Will Kanye tweet again by March 31? | Yes | 37¢ | 100¢ | $-5 | loss |
| Will Khamenei post 0-19 posts from March 17 to March 24, 2026? | Yes | 86¢ | 0¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will Khamenei tweet again on March 16, 2026? | Yes | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | win |
| Will Khamenei tweet again on March 20, 2026? | No | 30¢ | 0¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Khamenei tweet again on March 15, 2026? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
Crypto 100% +$7
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Paradex launch a token on March 6? | No | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | win |
Weather 100% +$0
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will 60 to 89 tornadoes occur in the United States in February 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will 30 to 59 tornadoes occur in the United States in February 2026? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
Elections 67% +$0
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 50¢ | 19¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | 50¢ | 81¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 60% and 65%? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
Tech 60% $-5
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over $8M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? | Yes | 89¢ | 0¢ | $-24 | loss |
| GPT-5.5 released by April 15, 2026? | No | 69¢ | 100¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Will Google have the third-best AI model at the end of March 2026? | Yes | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | win |
| GPT-5.3 released by March 8, 2026? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
Culture 88% $-7
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will "They Will Kill You" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 5m? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 85m and 90m? | No | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will "Ready or Not 2: Here I Come" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 7m and 8.5m? | Yes | 38¢ | 0¢ | $-36 | loss |
| Will "Reminders of Him" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 16m and 19m? | Yes | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | win |
| Will "Undertone" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 8m and 9m? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will "Reminders of Him" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 19m and 22m? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Zootopia 2 be the 2025 film with the highest domestic gross on March 15? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude 4.7 released by April 17? | Yes | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $3,133 | 17/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | Yes | 3.6¢ | 0¢ | +$519 | $40 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? | Yes | 98.4¢ | 100¢ | +$218 | $15,125 | 15/04/2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? | No | 95.9¢ | 100¢ | +$217 | $5,602 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15? | No | 67.0¢ | 100¢ | +$148 | $335 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026? | No | 92.0¢ | 100¢ | +$63 | $920 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | No | 91.1¢ | 100¢ | +$63 | $5,289 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 17.8¢ | 2¢ | +$33 | $45 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | Yes | 19.0¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | $100 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 92.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $92 | 15/04/2026 |
| GPT-5.5 released by April 15, 2026? | No | 69.0¢ | 100¢ | $-3 | $48 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | No | 95.6¢ | 100¢ | $-1,260 | $14,878 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on April 6? | Yes | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $150 | 11/04/2026 |
| Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on April 8? | Yes | 95.6¢ | 100¢ | $-18 | $50 | 11/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | Yes | 97.2¢ | 100¢ | +$666 | $24,291 | 07/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th? | No | 93.4¢ | 100¢ | +$349 | $6,043 | 07/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | Yes | 51.8¢ | 87¢ | +$0 | $155 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on April 3? | Yes | 99.1¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | $1,257 | 04/04/2026 |
| Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on April 4? | Yes | 98.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $50 | 04/04/2026 |
| Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on April 2? | Yes | 99.7¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $50 | 04/04/2026 |
| Will Khamenei post 0-19 posts from March 27 to April 3, 2026? | No | 21.5¢ | 0¢ | +$16 | $27 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will Kanye release BULLY by April 3? | Yes | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | $1,043 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will Paradex launch a token on March 6? | No | 93.6¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $103 | 01/04/2026 |
| Over $2.5M committed to the Cambria public sale? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $96 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 21, 2026? | No | 77.5¢ | 100¢ | +$1,126 | $3,886 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump talk to Mohammed bin Salman in March? | Yes | 45.4¢ | 100¢ | +$891 | $776 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 23, 2026? | No | 93.5¢ | 100¢ | +$320 | $4,418 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 29, 2026? | Yes | 92.7¢ | 100¢ | +$279 | $3,552 | 31/03/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | Yes | 4.0¢ | 0¢ | +$276 | $24 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March? | No | 97.8¢ | 100¢ | +$235 | $11,505 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 28, 2026? | No | 24.9¢ | 100¢ | +$108 | $208 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will another country strike Iran by March 31? | No | 91.8¢ | 100¢ | +$88 | $1,163 | 31/03/2026 |
| Another US bank failure by March 31? | No | 96.5¢ | 100¢ | +$87 | $2,494 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 30, 2026? | Yes | 98.0¢ | 100¢ | +$78 | $3,759 | 31/03/2026 |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? | No | 96.1¢ | 100¢ | +$65 | $3,788 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump talk to Mark Rutte in March? | No | 96.3¢ | 100¢ | +$62 | $2,106 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 25, 2026? | Yes | 99.7¢ | 100¢ | +$60 | $3,160 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026? | No | 94.1¢ | 100¢ | +$52 | $982 | 31/03/2026 |
| France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? | No | 95.8¢ | 100¢ | +$33 | $817 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March? | No | 93.6¢ | 100¢ | +$26 | $562 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | Yes | 99.3¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | $3,144 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran successfully target shipping on March 31, 2026? | No | 98.6¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | $1,698 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Anthropic have the second-best AI model at the end of March 2026? | Yes | 93.5¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | $187 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 24, 2026? | Yes | 99.4¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | $1,993 | 31/03/2026 |
| US/Israel strike on Fordow nuclear facility by March 31? | No | 80.0¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | $40 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | No | 96.3¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | $963 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Google have the third-best AI model at the end of March 2026? | Yes | 92.0¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | $92 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel strike Gaza on March 8, 2026? | Yes | 96.1¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | $197 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 28, 2026? | Yes | 50.3¢ | 0¢ | +$8 | $82 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 20, 2026? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $3,798 | 31/03/2026 |