nefar

Tech 78% +$10,406 $4,569 vol · 18 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Tesla and xAI merger officially announced by June 30?	No	81¢	94¢	+$2	win
Will Bernie or Mamdani say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during NYC rally?	No	6¢	0¢	$-47	loss
Will Melania say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during statement on April 9?	No	8¢	100¢	+$460	win
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31?	Yes	77¢	100¢	+$10	win
Will Jensen Huang say "Alpamayo" at the NVIDIA GTC keynote?	No	3¢	0¢	$-95	loss
Will Microsoft (MSFT) be the top performing Magnificent 7 company during the week of March 2?	Yes	90¢	100¢	+$187	win
Will "Macbook" be said 10+ times during the NYC Apple event on March 4?	No	21¢	100¢	+$115	win
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?	Yes	71¢	100¢	+$812	win
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?	Yes	95¢	100¢	+$15	win
ChatGPT Full Outage by February 28?	Yes	90¢	100¢	+$2	win

Politics 62% +$7,526 $50,066 vol · 118 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Trump meet with Aleksandr Lukashenko in 2026?	Yes	8¢	34¢	+$45	win
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?	No	42¢	100¢	+$4	win
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	Yes	93¢	100¢	$-0	loss
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	90¢	90¢	$-0	loss
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	95¢	97¢	+$29	win
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	Yes	59¢	40¢	$-64	loss
Will Trump say "Six Seven" in April?	Yes	99¢	100¢	+$10	win
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	No	66¢	64¢	+$0	—
Will Trump say "Two week" or "two-week" this week? (April 19)	Yes	99¢	100¢	+$19	win
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on April 15?	Yes	99¢	100¢	+$2	win

Geopolitics 61% +$2,888 $31,577 vol · 110 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	No	33¢	0¢	$-411	loss
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	45¢	80¢	+$71	win
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	No	29¢	0¢	+$66	win
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	Yes	76¢	100¢	+$13	win
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?	No	39¢	0¢	+$8	win
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay	No	65¢	84¢	+$1	win
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	No	36¢	0¢	$-0	loss
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	35¢	66¢	$-1	loss
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	Yes	33¢	30¢	$-28	loss
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	76¢	92¢	+$138	win

Elections 50% +$846 $39,863 vol · 23 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	4¢	11¢	+$0	—
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	50¢	81¢	+$4,688	win
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	No	8¢	34¢	+$69	win
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	66¢	66¢	$-2	loss
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	No	58¢	82¢	+$65	win
Will turnout in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary elections be between 65% and 70%?	Yes	9¢	0¢	$-12	loss
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?	Yes	57¢	100¢	$-24	loss
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?	Yes	84¢	100¢	$-2	loss
Will The Greens win the second most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?	Yes	2¢	0¢	$-74	loss
Will Matt Goodwin – Reform finish second in the Gorton and Denton by-election?	Yes	90¢	100¢	+$29	win

Other 61% +$581 $35,333 vol · 111 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Based FDV above $500M one day after launch?	No	45¢	100¢	+$1	win
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	42¢	100¢	$-4	loss
Will Dick Schoof be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	87¢	100¢	+$932	win
Will the US strike Somalia next?	Yes	93¢	100¢	+$17	win
Will the US strike Somalia next?	Yes	86¢	100¢	+$9	win
Will the US strike Syria next?	No	85¢	100¢	+$4	win
Will Dick Schoof be the next leader out before 2027?	No	50¢	0¢	+$0	—
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	No	95¢	96¢	+$0	—
Will Yoon Suk Yeol be sentenced to 20–30 years in prison?	Yes	5¢	0¢	$-16	loss
US strike on Mexico by March 31?	Yes	9¢	0¢	$-252	loss

Crypto 60% +$334 $6,493 vol · 10 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Rob Jetten become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?	Yes	57¢	100¢	+$367	win
Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31?	Yes	95¢	100¢	+$0	win
Blast Open Rotterdam 2026: Will a player break something during a game?	No	99¢	100¢	+$51	win
Will Melania say "Empower" or "Empowering" during Fostering the Future Together event on March 24?	No	50¢	0¢	$-179	loss
Will Meteora be accused of insider trading?	No	65¢	100¢	$-5	loss

Economy 57% +$321 $1,487 vol · 7 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Japan’s January 2026 unemployment rate be ≥2.7%?	Yes	3¢	100¢	+$25	win
Will Japan’s January 2026 unemployment rate be ≥2.7%?	No	10¢	0¢	$-14	loss
Will Germany GDP growth in Q4 2025 be exactly 0.4%?	No	75¢	100¢	$-1	loss
Will Germany GDP growth in Q4 2025 be below 0.0%?	Yes	24¢	0¢	$-38	loss

Culture 100% +$136 $1,453 vol · 1 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will 'Deadline' - BlackPink debut week album sales be less than 300k?	Yes	91¢	100¢	+$136	win

Finance 67% +$21 $1,991 vol · 3 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will SOLV Energy, Inc.'s market cap be greater than $5.4B at market close on IPO day?	No	53¢	0¢	+$354	win
Will SOLV Energy, Inc.'s market cap be less than $3.8B at market close on IPO day?	Yes	5¢	0¢	$-338	loss
Will Netflix say "Warner Bros" during earnings call?	Yes	85¢	100¢	+$4	win

Sports 86% $-199 $3,846 vol · 7 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will the United States of America win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Women's Ice Hockey at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?	Yes	73¢	100¢	+$1	win
Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?	Yes	98¢	100¢	+$37	win
Will Norway win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?	Yes	75¢	100¢	+$24	win
Will Rauw Alejandro perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?	Yes	16¢	0¢	$-465	loss
Will Cardi B perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?	No	21¢	0¢	+$24	win
Maddalena Parlay - Maddalena Wins by KO, TKO, or DQ & Over 1.5 Rounds	No	82¢	100¢	+$2	win