Win rate
58.8%
1656 W / 1160 L
Total PnL
$172,461
realized $-123,077 · unrealized $295,538
Portfolio
$295,538
volume $17,285,710
Predictions
3,900
13.8/day · avg $4,432
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 11/04/2024 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 19/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 19/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Crypto 61% +$98,445
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ethereum reach $5,000 by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 16¢ | 14¢ | +$109 | win |
| Will Ethereum dip to $2,500 by December 31, 2026? | No | 38¢ | 0¢ | $-202 | loss |
| Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 42¢ | 18¢ | $-12 | loss |
| Will Solana reach $160 by December 31, 2026? | No | 32¢ | 71¢ | +$486 | win |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | 29¢ | 0¢ | $-324 | loss |
| Will Rob Jetten become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$17 | win |
| Will Geert Wilders become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | $-89 | loss |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? | Yes | 27¢ | 40¢ | +$507 | win |
| MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? | Yes | 18¢ | 2¢ | $-583 | loss |
| Will Gwyneth Paltrow win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | win |
Geopolitics 79% +$66,085
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? | Yes | 48¢ | 100¢ | +$30,479 | win |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | Yes | 3¢ | 100¢ | +$824 | win |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? | No | 37¢ | 0¢ | +$245 | win |
| Will Ali Larijani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | No | 91¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? | Yes | 21¢ | 13¢ | $-270 | loss |
| Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? | No | 93¢ | 96¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 5¢ | 10¢ | +$105 | win |
| Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? | No | 83¢ | 94¢ | $-34 | loss |
| Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | +$46 | win |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$200 | win |
Tech 52% +$26,454
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Cook out as Apple CEO before 2027? | No | 55¢ | 74¢ | +$1,048 | win |
| Apple AirTags 2 priced below $30 USD at release? | Yes | 51¢ | 100¢ | +$118 | win |
| Apple AirTags 2 priced below $30 USD at release? | No | 42¢ | 0¢ | $-968 | loss |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? | Yes | 4¢ | 5¢ | +$59 | win |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? | Yes | 12¢ | 0¢ | $-314 | loss |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? | Yes | 19¢ | 0¢ | +$109 | win |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? | No | 56¢ | 100¢ | +$2,895 | win |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | $-265 | loss |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? | No | 7¢ | 0¢ | $-1,220 | loss |
| Will Tramell Tillman (Severance) win Best Supporting Actor – Television at the 83rd Golden Globes? | No | 84¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | win |
Other 56% +$17,606
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fogo FDV above $700M one day after launch? | No | 78¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | win |
| Fogo FDV above $1B one day after launch? | Yes | 13¢ | 0¢ | $-1,006 | loss |
| Insurrection Act invoked by March 31? | Yes | 33¢ | 0¢ | $-1,713 | loss |
| Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | No | 85¢ | 99¢ | +$70 | win |
| Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? | No | 44¢ | 66¢ | +$49 | win |
| Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | Yes | 13¢ | 8¢ | +$30 | win |
| Insurrection Act invoked by March 31? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
| US strike on Cuba by January 31? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Netanyahu out by end of 2026? | Yes | 45¢ | 44¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Tim Walz resign by December 31, 2026? | No | 75¢ | 92¢ | $-72 | loss |
Culture 76% +$9,777
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Netflix acquire Warner Bros. Discovery? | Yes | 85¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | 76¢ | 100¢ | $-231 | loss |
| Will Paul Thomas Anderson win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | 88¢ | 100¢ | $-461 | loss |
| Will Frankenstein win Best Costume Design at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | 87¢ | 100¢ | +$17 | win |
| Will Leonardo DiCaprio win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | 13¢ | 0¢ | +$264 | win |
| Will Sean Penn win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? | No | 66¢ | 0¢ | $-82 | loss |
| Will Sentimental Value win Best International Feature Film at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | 62¢ | 100¢ | +$752 | win |
| Will One Battle After Another win Best Film Editing at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | 58¢ | 100¢ | +$708 | win |
| Will Rose Byrne win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards? | No | 91¢ | 100¢ | $-192 | loss |
| Will Stellan Skarsgård win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | 49¢ | 0¢ | +$208 | win |
Finance 80% +$8,648
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| xAI IPO before 2027? | No | 75¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | win |
| Discord IPO before 2027? | Yes | 70¢ | 59¢ | +$1,033 | win |
| NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027? | No | 81¢ | 82¢ | $-227 | loss |
| Paramount x Warner Bros. acquisition announced by June 30? | Yes | 27¢ | 100¢ | +$5,276 | win |
| Discord IPO in 2025? | No | 72¢ | 100¢ | +$26 | win |
| NYSE marketwide circuit breaker in 2025? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | $-597 | loss |
| NYSE marketwide circuit breaker in 2025? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | +$503 | win |
| Fed rate hike in 2025? | Yes | 5¢ | 0¢ | +$43 | win |
| Fed rate hike in 2025? | No | 95¢ | 100¢ | $-45 | loss |
| Will anyone say "Tariff" during the Q2 2025 Netflix earnings call? | No | 68¢ | 100¢ | +$162 | win |
Weather 40% +$5,461
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. John's Red Storm vs. Duke Blue Devils | Duke Blue Devils | 71¢ | 100¢ | +$8,700 | win |
| Another 7.0 or above earthquake by September 30? | No | 43¢ | 0¢ | $-677 | loss |
| Earthquake 7.0 or above by August 31? | No | 59¢ | 0¢ | $-2,658 | loss |
| Earthquake 7.0 or above in June? | Yes | 4¢ | 0¢ | +$295 | win |
| Earthquake 7.0 or above in June? | No | 90¢ | 100¢ | $-199 | loss |
Economy 49% +$2,540
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US recession by end of 2026? | No | 66¢ | 74¢ | +$9 | win |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? | Yes | 9¢ | 1¢ | $-139 | loss |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | $-204 | loss |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting? | Yes | 21¢ | 0¢ | $-220 | loss |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$498 | win |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting? | No | 83¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| US recession in 2025? | No | 90¢ | 100¢ | +$1,110 | win |
| US recession in 2025? | Yes | 64¢ | 0¢ | $-7,024 | loss |
| No change in Bank of England's interest rates after February 2026 meeting? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| No change in Bank of England's interest rates after February 2026 meeting? | No | 3¢ | 0¢ | $-149 | loss |
Mentions 67% +$790
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Roaring Kitty tweet again by December 31? | No | 75¢ | 100¢ | +$781 | win |
| Will Prince Andrew be named in the Epstein survivors' list? | No | 77¢ | 100¢ | +$35 | win |
| Will Roaring Kitty tweet again by December 31? | Yes | 51¢ | 0¢ | $-26 | loss |
Esports 33% $-240
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Hanwha Life Esports win LoL Worlds 2025? | Yes | 9¢ | 0¢ | $-235 | loss |
| Will Alireza Firouzja win the 2025 Chess Esports World Cup? | No | 75¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | win |
| Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 Chess Esports World Cup? | Yes | 62¢ | 100¢ | $-13 | loss |
Sports 56% $-5,899
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship? | No | 92¢ | 99¢ | +$61 | win |
| Will Henri Bontenbal become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands? | No | 83¢ | 100¢ | $-42 | loss |
| Will Henri Bontenbal become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands? | Yes | 48¢ | 0¢ | $-422 | loss |
| Will Red Bull Racing be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? | Yes | 6¢ | 2¢ | $-52 | loss |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 82¢ | 84¢ | $-124 | loss |
| Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 1¢ | 1¢ | $-13 | loss |
| Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? | No | 71¢ | 75¢ | +$59 | win |
| Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Year? | No | 15¢ | 1¢ | +$67 | win |
| Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA Clutch Player of the Year? | Yes | 54¢ | 97¢ | +$76 | win |
| Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Year? | Yes | 85¢ | 99¢ | $-4 | loss |
Elections 51% $-9,712
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | 92¢ | 94¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 15¢ | 19¢ | +$231 | win |
| Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? | No | 80¢ | 94¢ | +$32 | win |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | No | 20¢ | 16¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Yes | 68¢ | 84¢ | +$91 | win |
| Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? | Yes | 32¢ | 36¢ | +$554 | win |
| Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? | No | 74¢ | 100¢ | +$163 | win |
| Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 66¢ | 68¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will the Democratic Party win the PA-16 House seat? | No | 87¢ | 85¢ | +$0 | — |
| Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? | No | 50¢ | 64¢ | +$4,745 | win |
Politics 65% $-26,207
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 13¢ | 22¢ | +$447 | win |
| Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | No | 98¢ | 99¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 2¢ | 1¢ | +$7 | win |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | No | 83¢ | 78¢ | $-231 | loss |
| Will Dan Bongino leave the Trump administration before 2027? | Yes | 66¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | win |
| Will Chris Wright be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? | No | 89¢ | 100¢ | +$21 | win |
| Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? | Yes | 11¢ | 0¢ | +$206 | win |
| Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? | No | 47¢ | 100¢ | $-444 | loss |
| Will Greenland vote for independence in 2026? | Yes | 13¢ | 6¢ | +$163 | win |
| duplicate Will Lee Zeldin be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? | No | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | win |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raptors vs. Cavaliers | Cavaliers | 77.2¢ | 100¢ | +$13,641 | $46,270 | 18/04/2026 |
| Warriors vs. Clippers | Clippers | 89.0¢ | 0¢ | $-17,741 | $17,800 | 16/04/2026 |
| Trail Blazers vs. Suns | Trail Blazers | 73.0¢ | 100¢ | +$923 | $2,496 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? | Yes | 69.0¢ | 100¢ | +$384 | $854 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-04-13? | No | 84.0¢ | 0¢ | $-13,460 | $13,486 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Atlanta United FC win on 2026-04-11? | No | 94.1¢ | 100¢ | +$656 | $10,459 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | No | 86.2¢ | 100¢ | +$502 | $3,574 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will CF América vs. CF Cruz Azul end in a draw? | Yes | 86.0¢ | 100¢ | +$19 | $116 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 67.0¢ | 99¢ | $-2 | $134 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 1.8¢ | 0¢ | $-20 | $26 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Ricardo Belmont finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 21.0¢ | 0¢ | $-39 | $72 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | Yes | 21.3¢ | 0¢ | $-330 | $1,057 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | Yes | 2.8¢ | 0¢ | $-16,506 | $2,525 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | No | 88.9¢ | 100¢ | $-662 | $21,625 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 15.7¢ | 0¢ | $-1,163 | $1,174 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | No | 4.0¢ | 0¢ | $-422 | $486 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Carlos Álvarez finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 5.0¢ | 0¢ | $-199 | $201 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | No | 2.8¢ | 1¢ | +$812 | $1,109 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Fuerza Popular (FP) win the most seats in the 2026 Peruvian Chamber of Deputies election? | No | 7.2¢ | 1¢ | $-84 | $91 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Acción Popular (AP) win the most seats in the 2026 Peruvian Chamber of Deputies election? | Yes | 2.5¢ | 0¢ | $-30 | $30 | 12/04/2026 |
| Timberwolves vs. Rockets | Timberwolves | 88.0¢ | 100¢ | +$120 | $880 | 11/04/2026 |
| Suns vs. Lakers | Lakers | 99.4¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $916 | 11/04/2026 |
| Lakers vs. Warriors | Lakers | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$50 | $4,950 | 10/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | Yes | 99.6¢ | 100¢ | +$200 | $49,800 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? | Yes | 13.6¢ | 0¢ | +$602 | $225 | 04/04/2026 |
| Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? | No | 85.9¢ | 100¢ | $-544 | $1,718 | 04/04/2026 |
| Will Michigan win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? | No | 26.0¢ | 0¢ | $-2,268 | $2,268 | 04/04/2026 |
| Will Arizona win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? | Yes | 32.4¢ | 0¢ | $-396 | $396 | 04/04/2026 |
| Will Mexico vs. Belgium end in a draw? | Yes | 27.0¢ | 100¢ | +$476 | $176 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Mexico win on 2026-03-31? | No | 68.0¢ | 100¢ | +$96 | $204 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Belgium win on 2026-03-31? | No | 57.0¢ | 100¢ | $-70 | $570 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Belgium win on 2026-03-31? | Yes | 46.0¢ | 0¢ | $-1,015 | $1,545 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin hit $150k by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 2.7¢ | 0¢ | $-845 | $190 | 01/04/2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | Yes | 18.2¢ | 100¢ | +$24,039 | $5,361 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? | No | 91.8¢ | 100¢ | +$1,704 | $18,992 | 31/03/2026 |
| Trump out as President by March 31? | No | 97.0¢ | 100¢ | +$474 | $15,235 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? | No | 65.0¢ | 100¢ | +$461 | $857 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the government shutdown last 4 days or more? | Yes | 96.4¢ | 100¢ | +$47 | $1,289 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March? | No | 86.7¢ | 100¢ | +$41 | $270 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Schumer remain Minority Leader through March 31? | Yes | 86.7¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $23 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Artemis II launch by February 28? | No | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $664 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? | Yes | 99.3¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $36 | 31/03/2026 |
| Tim Walz charged by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 22.0¢ | 16¢ | $-778 | $2,843 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? | Yes | 13.1¢ | 0¢ | $-842 | $842 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? | No | 10.3¢ | 0¢ | $-490 | $489 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? | Yes | 11.5¢ | 0¢ | $-314 | $313 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? | Yes | 2.8¢ | 0¢ | $-46 | $45 | 31/03/2026 |
| Warriors vs. Nuggets | Nuggets | 85.0¢ | 100¢ | +$3,300 | $18,700 | 30/03/2026 |
| Aaron Gordon: Assists O/U 0.5 | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $50 | 30/03/2026 |
| Tennessee Volunteers vs. Michigan Wolverines | Michigan Wolverines | 94.8¢ | 100¢ | +$3,176 | $58,331 | 29/03/2026 |