Win rate
66.7%
72 W / 36 L
Total PnL
$2,920
realized $1,272 · unrealized $1,648
Portfolio
$1,648
volume $197,554
Predictions
147
1.9/day · avg $1,344
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 25/10/2024 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 18/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 18/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Geopolitics 64% +$2,225
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026? | Yes | 69¢ | 0¢ | $-455 | loss |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? | Yes | 56¢ | 100¢ | +$240 | win |
| US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? | Yes | 71¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | win |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes | 33¢ | 34¢ | $-60 | loss |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? | Yes | 53¢ | 32¢ | $-25 | loss |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | Yes | 26¢ | 18¢ | $-83 | loss |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? | Yes | 95¢ | 97¢ | +$140 | win |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? | Yes | 77¢ | 100¢ | +$80 | win |
| Israel strikes Iran by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 54¢ | 100¢ | +$53 | win |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? | No | 23¢ | 0¢ | $-4 | loss |
Politics 64% +$1,014
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 38¢ | 27¢ | $-25 | loss |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? | Yes | 51¢ | 0¢ | $-225 | loss |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? | Yes | 71¢ | 80¢ | +$55 | win |
| Will Trump visit China by May 31? | Yes | 70¢ | 88¢ | +$7 | win |
| Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? | No | 91¢ | 100¢ | +$1,020 | win |
| Will Donald Trump visit China in 2025? | Yes | 19¢ | 0¢ | +$33 | win |
| Will Trump create a tariff dividend in 2025? | No | 82¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in 2025? | Yes | 72¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will Trump talk to Elon Musk in November? | Yes | 68¢ | 100¢ | $-7 | loss |
| Will Zohran Mamdani praise Donald Trump on Friday? | Yes | 15¢ | 0¢ | $-151 | loss |
Elections 67% +$95
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Yes | 75¢ | 84¢ | +$31 | win |
| Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | Yes | 75¢ | 0¢ | $-62 | loss |
| Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | Yes | 74¢ | 100¢ | +$29 | win |
| Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? | Yes | 77¢ | 100¢ | +$423 | win |
| Will Catherine Connolly win the Irish Presidential Election? | Yes | 80¢ | 100¢ | +$50 | win |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Yes | 88¢ | 100¢ | +$48 | win |
| Will Jacob Frey win the 2025 Minneapolis mayoral election? | Yes | 83¢ | 100¢ | +$20 | win |
| Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? | Yes | 21¢ | 0¢ | $-150 | loss |
| Will the Bloc Québécois win the third most seats in the next Canadian Election? | Yes | 91¢ | 100¢ | +$60 | win |
| Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in the next Canadian election? | Yes | 68¢ | 0¢ | $-727 | loss |
Tech 100% +$37
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31? | Yes | 90¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will Pope Leo XIV rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025? | Yes | 88¢ | 100¢ | +$26 | win |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | Yes | 91¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will NVIDIA (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings? | Yes | 91¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | win |
Economy 50% +$20
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? | Yes | 52¢ | 100¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? | Yes | 86¢ | 100¢ | +$23 | win |
Finance 100% +$12
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will SoFi Technologies (SOFI) be added to the S&P 500 by March 31, 2026? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | win |
Crypto 0% $-50
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Kanye launch a coin in March? | Yes | 34¢ | 0¢ | $-50 | loss |
Other 75% $-260
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maduro out by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 59¢ | 100¢ | +$41 | win |
| Xi Jinping out before 2027? | No | 89¢ | 93¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Jacob Tsimerman win the 2026 Fields Medal? | Yes | 70¢ | 70¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April? | Yes | 45¢ | 48¢ | +$18 | win |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | Yes | 67¢ | 98¢ | +$11 | win |
| Netanyahu arrested by March 31? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? | No | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by January 31? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| U.S. anti-cartel strike/operation on foreign soil by December 31? | Yes | 50¢ | 100¢ | +$410 | win |
| Will the Government shutdown end by November 30? | Yes | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$17 | win |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | Yes | 73.9¢ | 100¢ | +$29 | $83 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | Yes | 67.2¢ | 98¢ | +$11 | $25 | 12/04/2026 |
| US x Venezuela military engagement by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 60.2¢ | 100¢ | +$328 | $495 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will SoFi Technologies (SOFI) be added to the S&P 500 by March 31, 2026? | No | 96.8¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | $500 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? | No | 96.1¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | $226 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 31? | Yes | 93.0¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $93 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump visit China by May 31? | Yes | 70.0¢ | 88¢ | +$7 | $50 | 31/03/2026 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? | No | 98.1¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $400 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31? | Yes | 90.0¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $36 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? | No | 98.6¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $887 | 31/03/2026 |
| Netanyahu arrested by March 31? | No | 97.0¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $194 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 7? | No | 90.0¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $27 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? | No | 95.4¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $43 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | No | 93.4¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $56 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by March 7? | No | 97.8¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $100 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 9, 2026? | Yes | 98.2¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $57 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by March 15? | Yes | 94.0¢ | 100¢ | $-30 | $200 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 5, 2026? | Yes | 97.0¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $97 | 10/03/2026 |
| U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by January 31? | No | 96.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $96 | 31/01/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | Yes | 59.6¢ | 0¢ | $-2 | $48 | 31/01/2026 |
| Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? | No | 90.7¢ | 100¢ | +$1,020 | $10,000 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? | Yes | 76.8¢ | 100¢ | +$423 | $1,400 | 31/12/2025 |
| U.S. anti-cartel strike/operation on foreign soil by December 31? | Yes | 50.3¢ | 100¢ | +$410 | $436 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Donald Trump visit China in 2025? | Yes | 19.4¢ | 0¢ | +$33 | $601 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Pope Leo XIV rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025? | Yes | 88.1¢ | 100¢ | +$26 | $1,200 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will the Government shutdown end by December 31? | Yes | 95.4¢ | 100¢ | +$26 | $1,000 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will the Government shutdown end by November 30? | Yes | 93.0¢ | 100¢ | +$17 | $183 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025? | No | 88.9¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | $200 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Trump create a tariff dividend in 2025? | No | 82.4¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $50 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in 2025? | Yes | 72.0¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $100 | 31/12/2025 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? | No | 86.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $100 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | Yes | 91.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $50 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will another person/thing be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? | Yes | 96.7¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | $200 | 31/12/2025 |
| NATO x Russia military clash in 2025? | Yes | 17.0¢ | 0¢ | $-22 | $80 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31? | No | 78.0¢ | 100¢ | $-37 | $100 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? | No | 6.9¢ | 0¢ | $-63 | $25 | 31/12/2025 |
| US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31? | Yes | 0.5¢ | 0¢ | $-281 | $45 | 31/12/2025 |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? | Yes | 52.0¢ | 100¢ | $-3 | $23 | 10/12/2025 |
| Will Trump talk to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in November? | Yes | 88.0¢ | 0¢ | $-4 | $100 | 30/11/2025 |
| Will Trump talk to Elon Musk in November? | Yes | 68.4¢ | 100¢ | $-7 | $40 | 30/11/2025 |
| Will Zohran Mamdani praise Donald Trump on Friday? | Yes | 14.9¢ | 0¢ | $-151 | $151 | 21/11/2025 |
| Will NVIDIA (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings? | Yes | 91.4¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $70 | 19/11/2025 |
| Will Catherine Connolly win the Irish Presidential Election? | Yes | 80.1¢ | 100¢ | +$50 | $202 | 11/11/2025 |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Yes | 87.9¢ | 100¢ | +$48 | $350 | 04/11/2025 |
| Will Jacob Frey win the 2025 Minneapolis mayoral election? | Yes | 83.0¢ | 100¢ | +$20 | $100 | 04/11/2025 |
| Trump pause or remove 100k H-1B policy by October 31? | No | 60.0¢ | 100¢ | +$42 | $100 | 31/10/2025 |
| Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 30? | Yes | 94.0¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $100 | 31/10/2025 |
| Will Russia capture Kupiansk by October 31? | No | 50.0¢ | 0¢ | $-25 | $25 | 31/10/2025 |
| Will Russia capture Pokrovsk train station by October 31? | No | 70.0¢ | 0¢ | $-45 | $45 | 31/10/2025 |
| US x Venezuela military engagement by September 30? | Yes | 14.8¢ | 0¢ | $-141 | $180 | 31/10/2025 |