Win rate
45.1%
130 W / 158 L
Total PnL
$2,666
realized $1,186 · unrealized $1,480
Portfolio
$1,480
volume $284,438
Predictions
3,610
8.3/day · avg $79
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 01/11/2024 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | no |
Category breakdown
Geopolitics 74% +$2,300
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | Yes | 73¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | win |
| Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026? | No | 56¢ | 0¢ | $-49 | loss |
| Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 2, 2026? | No | 75¢ | 100¢ | +$40 | win |
| Israeli forces enter Beirut by April 30, 2026? | No | 58¢ | 98¢ | +$24 | win |
| Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 5, 2026? | Yes | 73¢ | 100¢ | +$19 | win |
| Israel military action against Yemen by April 15, 2026? | No | 75¢ | 100¢ | +$56 | win |
| Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 25, 2026? | No | 23¢ | 0¢ | $-10 | loss |
| Will Israel strike Gaza on March 9, 2026? | Yes | 26¢ | 0¢ | +$24 | win |
| Houthi strike on Israel by March 15, 2026? | No | 67¢ | 100¢ | +$73 | win |
| Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 21, 2026? | Yes | 26¢ | 0¢ | $-19 | loss |
Mentions 49% +$230
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? | Yes | 13¢ | 0¢ | $-26 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? | Yes | 10¢ | 0¢ | $-25 | loss |
| Will Khamenei post 0-19 posts from March 17 to March 24, 2026? | Yes | 29¢ | 0¢ | +$10 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 19 to March 21, 2026? | Yes | 6¢ | 0¢ | $-23 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? | Yes | 6¢ | 0¢ | $-42 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? | Yes | 22¢ | 100¢ | +$60 | win |
| Will Netanyahu tweet again by Saturday? | No | 49¢ | 100¢ | +$19 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? | Yes | 10¢ | 0¢ | +$14 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 2026? | Yes | 7¢ | 0¢ | $-14 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 16 to February 18, 2026? | Yes | 22¢ | 0¢ | +$1 | win |
Sports 43% +$78
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Yes | 9¢ | 0¢ | +$1 | win |
| Hawks vs. Lakers | Hawks | 7¢ | 0¢ | $-24 | loss |
| Colts vs. Giants | Giants | 37¢ | 100¢ | +$32 | win |
| Panthers vs. Buccaneers | Panthers | 14¢ | 0¢ | $-26 | loss |
| Knicks vs. Magic | Magic | 30¢ | 0¢ | $-23 | loss |
| Cardinals vs. Panthers | Panthers | 30¢ | 100¢ | +$35 | win |
| Eagles vs. Commanders | Commanders | 28¢ | 100¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Steelers vs. Ravens | Steelers | 25¢ | 0¢ | $-22 | loss |
| Texans vs. Chiefs | Texans | 16¢ | 0¢ | $-26 | loss |
| Steelers vs. Eagles | Steelers | 20¢ | 0¢ | $-20 | loss |
Culture 50% +$46
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will another movie gross most in 2024? | Yes | 7¢ | 0¢ | $-2 | loss |
| 'Mufasa' vs. 'Sonic 3' opening weekend box office? | Sonic | 67¢ | 100¢ | +$48 | win |
Politics 100% +$40
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump tweet less than 3 times Dec 6-13? | Yes | 16¢ | 100¢ | +$18 | win |
| Will trump tweet 1-2 times Nov 29-Dec 6? | Yes | 41¢ | 0¢ | +$19 | win |
| Will Trump tweet 5-9 times Nov 22-29? | Yes | 26¢ | 0¢ | +$3 | win |
Tech 0% $-9
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | Yes | 10¢ | 0¢ | $-9 | loss |
Crypto 33% $-254
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin hit $90k or $100k first? | 100k | 34¢ | 100¢ | +$22 | win |
| Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in December? | No | 26¢ | 0¢ | +$9 | win |
| Will MicroStrategy purchase more Bitcoin in 2024? | No | 29¢ | 0¢ | $-6 | loss |
| Will MicroStrategy purchase more Bitcoin in 2024? | No | 6¢ | 0¢ | $-145 | loss |
| Bitcoin above $97,000 on December 27? | Yes | 34¢ | 0¢ | +$60 | win |
| Ethereum above $3,900 on December 20? | Yes | 9¢ | 0¢ | $-90 | loss |
| Will Bitcoin dip below $100k by Sunday? | No | 16¢ | 0¢ | $-38 | loss |
| Will Bitcoin hit $100k today? | Yes | 30¢ | 0¢ | $-42 | loss |
| Will Bitcoin hit $100k today? | Yes | 30¢ | 0¢ | $-25 | loss |
Other 33% $-372
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will MrBeast's next video get less than 25 million views on day 1? | Yes | 30¢ | 0¢ | +$151 | win |
| Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1? | Yes | 66¢ | 100¢ | +$81 | win |
| Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1? | No | 71¢ | 100¢ | $-16 | loss |
| Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Yes | 5¢ | 12¢ | +$30 | win |
| Will Finland be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? | Yes | 86¢ | 76¢ | $-32 | loss |
| Will Greece be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? | Yes | 83¢ | 76¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Will Czechia advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? | Yes | 70¢ | 71¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Vance visit the Middle East by March 31? | No | 52¢ | 100¢ | +$18 | win |
| Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1? | Yes | 67¢ | 100¢ | +$37 | win |
| Will London have between 30-40mm of precipitation in March? | Yes | 47¢ | 0¢ | $-25 | loss |
Weather 40% $-451
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on April 15? | Yes | 43¢ | 0¢ | $-20 | loss |
| Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 11°C on April 11? | Yes | 68¢ | 0¢ | $-22 | loss |
| Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 22°C on April 10? | No | 31¢ | 0¢ | $-37 | loss |
| Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on April 10? | Yes | 70¢ | 0¢ | $-81 | loss |
| Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on April 7? | Yes | 24¢ | 0¢ | $-22 | loss |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 6? | No | 87¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on April 5? | Yes | 77¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C or higher on April 1? | No | 72¢ | 0¢ | $-153 | loss |
| Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C on April 1? | Yes | 13¢ | 0¢ | $-11 | loss |
| Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 8°C on March 30? | Yes | 42¢ | 0¢ | $-44 | loss |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? | Yes | 13.1¢ | 0¢ | $-26 | $26 | 17/04/2026 |
| Israel military action against Yemen by April 15, 2026? | No | 75.5¢ | 100¢ | +$56 | $192 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on April 15? | Yes | 42.7¢ | 0¢ | $-20 | $21 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 11°C on April 11? | Yes | 67.6¢ | 0¢ | $-22 | $23 | 11/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 22°C on April 10? | No | 30.8¢ | 0¢ | $-37 | $38 | 10/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on April 10? | Yes | 69.6¢ | 0¢ | $-81 | $82 | 10/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on April 7? | Yes | 24.0¢ | 0¢ | $-22 | $22 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 6? | No | 86.9¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $23 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on April 5? | Yes | 76.7¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | $31 | 05/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C or higher on April 1? | No | 71.7¢ | 0¢ | $-153 | $187 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 16°C on April 1? | Yes | 88.6¢ | 0¢ | $-106 | $151 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C on April 1? | Yes | 12.7¢ | 0¢ | $-11 | $23 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Israel strike Gaza on March 7, 2026? | Yes | 25.9¢ | 100¢ | +$423 | $191 | 31/03/2026 |
| Houthi strike on Israel by March 31, 2026? | No | 66.9¢ | 100¢ | +$223 | $525 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 20, 2026? | No | 45.3¢ | 100¢ | +$218 | $189 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 18, 2026? | Yes | 30.7¢ | 100¢ | +$149 | $80 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 28, 2026? | No | 41.5¢ | 100¢ | +$132 | $116 | 31/03/2026 |
| Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026? | No | 60.9¢ | 100¢ | +$89 | $139 | 31/03/2026 |
| Houthi strike on Israel by March 15, 2026? | No | 67.1¢ | 100¢ | +$73 | $150 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 31, 2026? | Yes | 58.3¢ | 100¢ | +$65 | $146 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 26, 2026? | No | 57.4¢ | 100¢ | +$53 | $75 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will London have between 20-30mm of precipitation in March? | Yes | 60.6¢ | 100¢ | +$53 | $127 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel strike Gaza on March 8, 2026? | Yes | 77.3¢ | 100¢ | +$49 | $401 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel strike Gaza on March 9, 2026? | No | 75.0¢ | 100¢ | +$45 | $150 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1? | No | 76.7¢ | 100¢ | +$42 | $150 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 19, 2026? | Yes | 57.7¢ | 100¢ | +$38 | $56 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1? | Yes | 67.2¢ | 100¢ | +$37 | $81 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 4? | Yes | 36.0¢ | 0¢ | +$28 | $43 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel strike Gaza on March 9, 2026? | Yes | 26.2¢ | 0¢ | +$24 | $127 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 23, 2026? | No | 64.5¢ | 100¢ | +$17 | $48 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 23, 2026? | No | 51.3¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | $23 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by March 7? | No | 79.9¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | $68 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 8, 2026? | Yes | 29.2¢ | 0¢ | +$8 | $27 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1? | Yes | 22.7¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $65 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | Yes | 74.6¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $448 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will London have less than 20mm of precipitation in March? | No | 92.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $26 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by March 15? | Yes | 65.7¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | $46 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 26, 2026? | Yes | 51.7¢ | 0¢ | $-2 | $36 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1? | Yes | 15.0¢ | 0¢ | $-3 | $26 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 25, 2026? | No | 22.7¢ | 0¢ | $-10 | $70 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | No | 24.6¢ | 0¢ | $-14 | $155 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 21, 2026? | Yes | 26.4¢ | 0¢ | $-19 | $35 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will London have between 30-40mm of precipitation in March? | Yes | 47.5¢ | 0¢ | $-25 | $60 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1? | Yes | 28.3¢ | 0¢ | $-190 | $473 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 24, 2026? | No | 7.8¢ | 0¢ | $-46 | $46 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 31, 2026? | No | 26.9¢ | 0¢ | $-37 | $37 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel strike Gaza on March 3, 2026? | Yes | 28.5¢ | 0¢ | $-33 | $33 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will MrBeast's next video get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1? | Yes | 7.7¢ | 0¢ | $-12 | $22 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 7°C on March 30? | Yes | 46.5¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $52 | 30/03/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 8°C on March 30? | Yes | 41.9¢ | 0¢ | $-44 | $49 | 30/03/2026 |