ProbMaster

Sports 87% +$285 $817 vol · 23 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	Yes	74¢	96¢	$-1	loss
Bucks vs. Pistons	Pistons	88¢	100¢	+$4	win
Rockets vs. Grizzlies	Rockets	88¢	100¢	+$4	win
Clippers vs. Pacers	Clippers	80¢	100¢	+$12	win
Nets vs. Warriors	Warriors	84¢	100¢	+$12	win
Bulls vs. 76ers	76ers	66¢	100¢	+$15	win
UFC Fight Night: Movsar Evloev vs. Lerone Murphy (Featherweight, Main Card)	Movsar Evloev	70¢	100¢	+$24	win
Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets	Nuggets	75¢	100¢	+$20	win
Hawks vs. Rockets	Rockets	62¢	100¢	+$23	win
Raptors vs. Nuggets	Nuggets	73¢	100¢	+$12	win

Politics 50% +$125 $435 vol · 6 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	94¢	96¢	$-0	loss
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	96¢	98¢	$-0	loss
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	35¢	27¢	$-3	loss
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	Yes	83¢	100¢	+$17	win
Will James Talarico be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas?	Yes	66¢	100¢	+$111	win
Will Tô Lâm be the next President of Vietnam?	Yes	92¢	100¢	+$1	win

Other 69% +$70 $664 vol · 13 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Lighter reach $10 before 2027?	No	91¢	94¢	+$1	win
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	64¢	24¢	$-48	loss
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga?	Yes	59¢	98¢	+$42	win
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	Yes	76¢	60¢	$-3	loss
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	69¢	99¢	+$12	win
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of March?	No	94¢	100¢	$-26	loss
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?	Yes	95¢	100¢	+$2	win
Zadar: Henri Squire vs Stefan Palosi	Henri Squire	70¢	100¢	+$10	win
Will USA win the 2026 World Baseball Classic?	Yes	75¢	0¢	$-25	loss
BNP Paribas Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard	Kamil Majchrzak	56¢	100¢	+$28	win

Geopolitics 67% +$32 $539 vol · 6 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will US or Israel strike Iran by December 31, 2026?	Yes	81¢	100¢	+$53	win
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?	Yes	76¢	100¢	+$9	win
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	66¢	81¢	$-9	loss
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	91¢	91¢	+$1	win
US x China Military clash before 2027?	No	90¢	94¢	+$3	win
US Men's Clay Court Championships: Ben Shelton vs Thiago Agustin Tirante	Ben Shelton	65¢	0¢	$-25	loss

Economy 100% +$1 $35 vol · 1 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?	No	98¢	100¢	+$1	win

Tech 50% $-19 $85 vol · 2 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	Yes	79¢	88¢	+$4	win
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	Yes	72¢	22¢	$-23	loss

Elections 58% $-42 $1,290 vol · 24 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	96¢	94¢	$-1	loss
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	20¢	17¢	$-2	loss
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	98¢	99¢	+$1	win
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	94¢	94¢	$-0	loss
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	75¢	65¢	$-7	loss
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election	Yes	71¢	89¢	+$8	win
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 Assam Legislative Assembly election?	Yes	94¢	97¢	+$2	win
Will the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election?	Yes	78¢	76¢	$-1	loss
Will Luis Fernando Camacho win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatorial election?	Yes	66¢	0¢	$-52	loss
Will Fidesz–KDNP finish with the second-most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?	Yes	70¢	100¢	+$21	win

Crypto 74% $-253 $2,155 vol · 34 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	Down	88¢	100¢	+$6	win
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	Down	92¢	100¢	+$4	win
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Down	95¢	100¢	+$4	win
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET	Down	94¢	100¢	+$4	win
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	Up	96¢	100¢	+$2	win
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Up	97¢	100¢	+$2	win
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET	Up	97¢	100¢	+$2	win
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET	Up	98¢	100¢	+$1	win
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET	Up	97¢	0¢	$-45	loss
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Down	85¢	100¢	+$6	win