Win rate
70.2%
1351 W / 572 L
Total PnL
$38,464
realized $8,341 · unrealized $30,123
Portfolio
$30,123
volume $684,909
Predictions
2,656
37.2/day · avg $258
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 12/11/2025 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Sports 72% +$28,504
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bodø/Glimt win Norway Eliteserien? | No | 65¢ | 56¢ | $-60 | loss |
| Will Shohei Ohtani win the 2026 National League MVP Award? | No | 37¢ | 38¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? | No | 59¢ | 55¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Will Jerami Grant win the 2025–2026 NBA Sixth Man of the Year? | No | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | win |
| Will Lane Hutson win the 2025–2026 NHL James Norris Memorial Trophy? | No | 95¢ | 98¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? | No | 92¢ | 94¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will Nathan MacKinnon win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? | Yes | 60¢ | 12¢ | $-111 | loss |
| Will Matthew Schaefer win the 2025–2026 NHL Calder Memorial Trophy? | Yes | 61¢ | 99¢ | +$60 | win |
| Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 42¢ | 44¢ | +$20 | win |
| Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 23¢ | 24¢ | +$5 | win |
Other 64% +$4,345
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Michael Carrick be appointed as manager of Manchester United? | No | 54¢ | 47¢ | +$195 | win |
| Will Jannik Sinner win a calendar Grand Slam in 2026? | No | 89¢ | 100¢ | +$22 | win |
| Insurrection Act invoked by March 31? | Yes | 26¢ | 0¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? | No | 96¢ | 96¢ | +$-0 | — |
| Netanyahu out by June 30? | No | 85¢ | 94¢ | +$38 | win |
| Will Wrexham be promoted to the EPL? | No | 89¢ | 92¢ | +$35 | win |
| Will Oviedo finish in the top 4 of the La Liga 2025–26 standings? | No | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will Arsenal win a trophy this season? | Yes | 82¢ | 69¢ | $-208 | loss |
| Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? | No | 17¢ | 2¢ | $-177 | loss |
| Will FC Heidenheim finish in the top 4 of the Bundesliga 2025–26 standings? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
Politics 66% +$1,339
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump declassifies UFO files before 2027? | Yes | 80¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? | No | 85¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027? | No | 64¢ | 84¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | No | 81¢ | 92¢ | +$27 | win |
| Will Lori Chavez-DeRemer be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? | No | 67¢ | 38¢ | $-33 | loss |
| Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? | Yes | 72¢ | 92¢ | +$39 | win |
| Will JD Vance say "Biden" 5+ times during meetings with Orbán? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Tobias Harris: Assists O/U 2.5 | No | 65¢ | 100¢ | +$169 | win |
| Will Trump say "Big Beautiful Bill" during the White House Easter Egg Roll? | No | 86¢ | 100¢ | +$36 | win |
| Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" during the Easter Lunch on Wednesday? | No | 90¢ | 100¢ | +$46 | win |
Geopolitics 76% +$757
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026? | Yes | 41¢ | 0¢ | +$19 | win |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | Yes | 74¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | win |
| US forces enter Iran by December 31? | No | 36¢ | 0¢ | $-144 | loss |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | No | 23¢ | 0¢ | $-40 | loss |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | Yes | 40¢ | 30¢ | $-21 | loss |
| US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 70¢ | 100¢ | +$41 | win |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | No | 73¢ | 94¢ | +$62 | win |
| Will the Ottawa Senators make the NHL Playoffs? | Yes | 68¢ | 100¢ | +$52 | win |
| Will Ukraine qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 69¢ | 100¢ | +$315 | win |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach leading at halftime? | No | 51¢ | 100¢ | +$196 | win |
Finance 91% +$582
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will EA say "EA Sports FC" during earnings call? | No | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will Netflix say "Warner Bros" during earnings call? | No | 10¢ | 0¢ | +$83 | win |
| Will Netflix say "Hollywood" during earnings call? | Yes | 50¢ | 0¢ | $-21 | loss |
| Will BlackRock say "Digital Asset" during earnings call? | Yes | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Nike say "Consumer Demand" during earnings call? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will FedEx say "Dividend" during earnings call? | No | 20¢ | 0¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Will Nike say "Skims / NikeSKIMS" during earnings call? | Yes | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Costco say "Revenue" during earnings call? | No | 31¢ | 0¢ | $-31 | loss |
| Will Costco say "Holiday" during earnings call? | Yes | 87¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Adobe say "Semrush" during earnings call? | Yes | 90¢ | 100¢ | +$22 | win |
Culture 90% +$120
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 80m and 85m? | Yes | 49¢ | 100¢ | +$102 | win |
| Will "Hoppers" 3rd Weekend Box Office be greater than 21m? | No | 76¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will Luther (Kendrick Lamar and SZA) win Song of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards? | No | 82¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will Golden (Ejae and Mark Sonnenblick) win Song of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards? | Yes | 56¢ | 0¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will "Run Away" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? (January 6, 2026) | Yes | 70¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | win |
| Will Benicio del Toro win Best Supporting Actor in the 2026 Critics Choice Awards? | No | 42¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? | Yes | 82¢ | 100¢ | +$17 | win |
| Will "Christmas Gameday: Cowboys vs. Commanders" be the top US Netflix show this week? (December 30, 2025) | No | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will "The Running Man" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 17m and 19m? | Yes | 19¢ | 0¢ | $-36 | loss |
Tech 53% +$111
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KHL: Sibir Novosibirsk vs. Metallurg Magnitogorsk | Sibir Novosibirsk | 28¢ | 100¢ | +$272 | win |
| KHL: Sibir Novosibirsk vs. Metallurg Magnitogorsk | Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 65¢ | 0¢ | $-112 | loss |
| KHL: Metallurg Magnitogorsk vs. Sibir Novosibirsk | Sibir Novosibirsk | 22¢ | 0¢ | $-44 | loss |
| Will Jensen Huang say "Anthropic" at the NVIDIA GTC keynote? | No | 67¢ | 0¢ | $-113 | loss |
| Will Google say "Nano Banana" during earnings call? | No | 29¢ | 0¢ | $-43 | loss |
| Will Melania say "ChatGPT" during AI talk on Friday? | No | 75¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | win |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025? | Yes | 38¢ | 100¢ | +$39 | win |
| Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? | Yes | 56¢ | 0¢ | $-45 | loss |
| Will OpenAI release a new frontier model by December 13? | Yes | 83¢ | 100¢ | +$17 | win |
| Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 11? | Yes | 73¢ | 100¢ | +$27 | win |
Crypto 62% +$53
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Big Game: Coin Toss Team Winner | NE | 49¢ | 100¢ | +$51 | win |
| Big Game: Coin Toss | Heads | 49¢ | 100¢ | +$51 | win |
| Big Game: Coin Toss | Tails | 49¢ | 0¢ | $-49 | loss |
| Big Game: Coin Toss Team Winner | SEA | 49¢ | 0¢ | $-49 | loss |
| Australian Open Men's: Jakub Mensik vs Ethan Quinn | Mensik | 70¢ | 100¢ | +$60 | win |
| Will BlackRock say "Stablecoin" during earnings call? | Yes | 71¢ | 0¢ | $-36 | loss |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2025? | No | 85¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | win |
| Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase December 16-22? | No | 91¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | win |
Esports 100% +$7
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will EA say "Apex Legends" during earnings call? | No | 90¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | win |
Weather 0% +$-0
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Named storm forms before hurricane season? | No | 56¢ | 63¢ | +$-0 | — |
Elections 50% $-83
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Luís Marques Mendes win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | Yes | 64¢ | 0¢ | $-96 | loss |
| Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduras presidential election? | Yes | 91¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | win |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Midtjylland reach the UEFA Europa League quarter-finals? | No | 33.0¢ | 100¢ | +$469 | $231 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Nottingham Forest reach the UEFA Europa League quarter-finals? | Yes | 33.0¢ | 100¢ | +$468 | $231 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Lyon reach the UEFA Europa League quarter-finals? | No | 34.0¢ | 100¢ | +$334 | $172 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Roma reach the UEFA Europa League quarter-finals? | No | 24.0¢ | 100¢ | +$226 | $71 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Sigma Olomouc reach the UEFA Europa Conference League quarter-finals? | No | 80.0¢ | 100¢ | +$44 | $174 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Crystal Palace reach the UEFA Europa Conference League quarter-finals? | Yes | 67.0¢ | 100¢ | +$33 | $67 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Lille reach the UEFA Europa League quarter-finals? | No | 84.4¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $36 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Bologna reach the UEFA Europa League quarter-finals? | No | 66.9¢ | 0¢ | $-67 | $67 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Porto reach the UEFA Europa League quarter-finals? | No | 18.0¢ | 0¢ | $-105 | $105 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Crystal Palace reach the UEFA Europa Conference League quarter-finals? | No | 19.0¢ | 0¢ | $-133 | $133 | 17/04/2026 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Chicago Cubs | Chicago Cubs | 56.3¢ | 0¢ | $-162 | $162 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Real Betis reach the UEFA Europa League quarter-finals? | No | 57.0¢ | 0¢ | $-342 | $399 | 17/04/2026 |
| Como 1907 leading at halftime? | No | 51.0¢ | 100¢ | +$211 | $219 | 17/04/2026 |
| Paolo Banchero: Points O/U 22.5 | No | 44.0¢ | 49¢ | +$20 | $175 | 17/04/2026 |
| Paolo Banchero: Assists O/U 4.5 | No | 47.0¢ | 49¢ | +$7 | $165 | 17/04/2026 |
| Desmond Bane: Points O/U 19.5 | No | 44.0¢ | 48¢ | +$12 | $152 | 17/04/2026 |
| Coby White: Points O/U 13.5 | No | 44.0¢ | 46¢ | +$4 | $99 | 17/04/2026 |
| FC Internazionale Milano leading at halftime? | No | 40.0¢ | 42¢ | +$3 | $72 | 17/04/2026 |
| LaMelo Ball: Assists O/U 7.5 | No | 48.0¢ | 51¢ | +$5 | $86 | 17/04/2026 |
| US Sassuolo Calcio leading at halftime? | No | 83.9¢ | 0¢ | $-90 | $90 | 17/04/2026 |
| Franz Wagner: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | No | 53.0¢ | 57¢ | +$2 | $29 | 17/04/2026 |
| Miles Bridges: Assists O/U 2.5 | No | 47.0¢ | 48¢ | +$0 | $23 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the Seattle Kraken make the NHL Playoffs? | No | 63.7¢ | 100¢ | +$365 | $639 | 16/04/2026 |
| RC Celta de Vigo leading at halftime? | No | 59.2¢ | 100¢ | +$326 | $474 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the San Jose Sharks make the NHL Playoffs? | No | 62.7¢ | 100¢ | +$314 | $529 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will Galatasaray reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals? | No | 63.0¢ | 100¢ | +$60 | $103 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will Leverkusen reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals? | No | 88.0¢ | 100¢ | +$55 | $404 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the Ottawa Senators make the NHL Playoffs? | Yes | 68.0¢ | 100¢ | +$52 | $111 | 16/04/2026 |
| Kristaps Porzingis: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | No | 41.0¢ | 100¢ | +$49 | $34 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the Chicago Blackhawks make the NHL Playoffs? | No | 89.0¢ | 100¢ | +$46 | $375 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the New York Rangers make the NHL Playoffs? | No | 81.0¢ | 100¢ | +$37 | $167 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the Florida Panthers make the NHL Playoffs? | No | 37.0¢ | 100¢ | +$22 | $63 | 16/04/2026 |
| Derrick Jones Jr.: Assists O/U 1.5 | No | 58.0¢ | 100¢ | +$20 | $28 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the Winnipeg Jets make the NHL Playoffs? | No | 89.6¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | $116 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the Los Angeles Kings make the NHL Playoffs? | Yes | 48.5¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $99 | 16/04/2026 |
| Derrick Jones Jr.: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | Yes | 52.9¢ | 0¢ | $-1 | $227 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the Columbus Blue Jackets make the NHL Playoffs? | Yes | 25.0¢ | 0¢ | $-22 | $22 | 16/04/2026 |
| Derrick Jones Jr.: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | No | 57.0¢ | 100¢ | $-30 | $244 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the Toronto Maple Leafs make the NHL Playoffs? | Yes | 34.0¢ | 0¢ | $-34 | $34 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the Boston Bruins make the NHL Playoffs? | Yes | 82.9¢ | 100¢ | $-36 | $91 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the Florida Panthers make the NHL Playoffs? | Yes | 52.3¢ | 0¢ | $-49 | $134 | 16/04/2026 |
| Bennedict Mathurin: Points O/U 13.5 | No | 58.0¢ | 0¢ | $-49 | $49 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the Nashville Predators make the NHL Playoffs? | Yes | 28.1¢ | 0¢ | $-62 | $62 | 16/04/2026 |
| Darius Garland: Points O/U 19.5 | No | 47.0¢ | 0¢ | $-83 | $89 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will Manchester City reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals? | Yes | 18.0¢ | 0¢ | $-108 | $108 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will Barcelona reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals? | No | 23.0¢ | 0¢ | $-112 | $112 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the Los Angeles Kings make the NHL Playoffs? | No | 22.7¢ | 0¢ | $-128 | $190 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the Pittsburgh Penguins make the NHL Playoffs? | No | 56.8¢ | 0¢ | $-175 | $175 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals? | No | 43.4¢ | 0¢ | $-411 | $411 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the Boston Bruins make the NHL Playoffs? | No | 51.4¢ | 0¢ | $-503 | $558 | 16/04/2026 |