Win rate
69.6%
16 W / 7 L
Total PnL
$237
realized $-592 · unrealized $829
Portfolio
$829
volume $4,774
Predictions
29
1.1/day · avg $165
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 31/12/1969 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 18/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 18/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Geopolitics 71% +$235
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 70¢ | 66¢ | $-9 | loss |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | No | 78¢ | 92¢ | +$10 | win |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | No | 71¢ | 78¢ | +$13 | win |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | No | 93¢ | 99¢ | +$9 | win |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | Yes | 28¢ | 100¢ | +$54 | win |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | No | 74¢ | 100¢ | +$20 | win |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? | Yes | 87¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | win |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | Yes | 60¢ | 81¢ | +$20 | win |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | No | 86¢ | 100¢ | +$25 | win |
| US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? | No | 84¢ | 100¢ | +$29 | win |
Politics 100% +$20
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | No | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | win |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 12, 2026? | No | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | win |
Other 50% $-20
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | Yes | 40¢ | 24¢ | $-22 | loss |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | No | 45¢ | 76¢ | +$27 | win |
| Will "Donk" be said during the PGL Bucharest 2026 Grand Final? | No | 91¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| DeepSeek V4 released by April 7? | Yes | 13¢ | 0¢ | $-26 | loss |
Recent Trades (23)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | Yes | 28.4¢ | 100¢ | +$54 | $22 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | No | 74.2¢ | 100¢ | +$20 | $59 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | No | 93.3¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | $171 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | No | 63.3¢ | 0¢ | $-89 | $89 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? | Yes | 87.4¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | $143 | 15/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | Yes | 60.4¢ | 81¢ | +$20 | $61 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 12, 2026? | No | 94.6¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $131 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will "Donk" be said during the PGL Bucharest 2026 Grand Final? | No | 91.2¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $20 | 11/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | Yes | 54.3¢ | 100¢ | +$240 | $334 | 07/04/2026 |
| DeepSeek V4 released by April 7? | Yes | 12.8¢ | 0¢ | $-26 | $26 | 07/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | No | 96.0¢ | 0¢ | $-151 | $151 | 07/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | Yes | 50.1¢ | 81¢ | +$28 | $63 | 07/04/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | No | 86.0¢ | 100¢ | +$25 | $153 | 31/03/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? | Yes | 27.2¢ | 100¢ | +$104 | $39 | 01/01/1970 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? | No | 84.0¢ | 100¢ | +$29 | $150 | 01/01/1970 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? | No | 70.0¢ | 0¢ | $-59 | $59 | 01/01/1970 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | No | 93.4¢ | 99¢ | +$9 | $155 | 30/04/2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | Yes | 40.2¢ | 24¢ | $-22 | $55 | 30/04/2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | No | 45.3¢ | 76¢ | +$27 | $47 | 30/04/2026 |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | No | 70.8¢ | 78¢ | +$13 | $123 | 31/05/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | No | 78.0¢ | 92¢ | +$10 | $56 | 30/06/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? | No | 44.0¢ | 0¢ | $-24 | $24 | 30/06/2026 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 69.6¢ | 66¢ | $-9 | $153 | 31/12/2026 |