Win rate
58.5%
107 W / 76 L
Total PnL
$706
realized $-427 · unrealized $1,133
Portfolio
$1,133
volume $517,518
Predictions
642
4.0/day · avg $806
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 04/01/2026 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 18/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 18/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Geopolitics 57% +$1,198
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by January 31? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | +$33 | win |
| Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | Yes | 10¢ | 0¢ | +$29 | win |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | No | 42¢ | 0¢ | +$13 | win |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026? | Yes | 36¢ | 0¢ | $-69 | loss |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes | 52¢ | 28¢ | $-41 | loss |
| Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? | Yes | 23¢ | 22¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? | Yes | 83¢ | 100¢ | +$73 | win |
| Israel strikes Iran by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 89¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? | Yes | 85¢ | 95¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? | Yes | 10¢ | 4¢ | $-45 | loss |
Sports 75% $-17
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thunder vs. Cavaliers | Cavaliers | 12¢ | 0¢ | $-53 | loss |
| Grizzlies vs. Magic | Grizzlies | 18¢ | 0¢ | +$19 | win |
| Grizzlies vs. Magic | Magic | 39¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | win |
| Bills vs. Jaguars | Bills | 36¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | win |
Crypto 73% $-50
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET | Up | 61¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET | Down | 53¢ | 0¢ | +$1 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET | Up | 83¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Ethereum Up or Down - February 27, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET | Down | 91¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Ethereum Up or Down - February 27, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET | Up | 73¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Ethereum Up or Down - February 26, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET | Up | 77¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
| Ethereum Up or Down - February 26, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET | Down | 85¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET | Down | 69¢ | 0¢ | $-4 | loss |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET | Down | 66¢ | 0¢ | $-87 | loss |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET | Down | 73¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | win |
Politics 0% $-68
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026? | Yes | 34¢ | 16¢ | $-50 | loss |
Other 38% $-102
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | Yes | 47¢ | 30¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | No | 61¢ | 70¢ | +$39 | win |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30? | Yes | 6¢ | 6¢ | $-88 | loss |
| Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 25¢ | 0¢ | +$71 | win |
| U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by March 31? | Yes | 9¢ | 0¢ | $-25 | loss |
| Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-01-10? | Yes | 40¢ | 0¢ | $-60 | loss |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 18, 2026? | Yes | 24.0¢ | 3¢ | $-19 | $22 | 18/04/2026 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026? | Yes | 66.9¢ | 0¢ | $-76 | $144 | 18/04/2026 |
| Israel military action against Yemen by April 15, 2026? | No | 50.7¢ | 100¢ | +$56 | $253 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel military action against Yemen by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 42.0¢ | 0¢ | $-5 | $83 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 15, 2026? | No | 8.9¢ | 0¢ | $-18 | $105 | 15/04/2026 |
| Houthi military action against Israel by April 15, 2026? | No | 59.3¢ | 0¢ | $-146 | $146 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? | No | 90.3¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $181 | 10/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | Yes | 60.0¢ | 100¢ | +$156 | $494 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 9, 2026? | Yes | 68.3¢ | 100¢ | +$301 | $668 | 31/03/2026 |
| Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 45.5¢ | 100¢ | +$228 | $444 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | Yes | 76.4¢ | 100¢ | +$222 | $4,504 | 31/03/2026 |
| Hezbollah strike on Israel by March 31? | Yes | 48.3¢ | 100¢ | +$115 | $511 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 8, 2026? | Yes | 73.6¢ | 100¢ | +$106 | $329 | 31/03/2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | Yes | 75.2¢ | 100¢ | +$82 | $737 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 31, 2026? | Yes | 92.6¢ | 100¢ | +$78 | $997 | 31/03/2026 |
| Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 25.3¢ | 0¢ | +$71 | $594 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 6, 2026? | Yes | 81.2¢ | 100¢ | +$65 | $319 | 31/03/2026 |
| France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? | Yes | 8.7¢ | 0¢ | +$64 | $970 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 5, 2026? | Yes | 74.9¢ | 100¢ | +$48 | $175 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 27, 2026? | Yes | 91.3¢ | 100¢ | +$42 | $451 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will another country strike Iran by March 31? | Yes | 61.0¢ | 0¢ | +$37 | $415 | 31/03/2026 |
| Houthi strike on Israel by March 31, 2026? | No | 66.7¢ | 100¢ | +$27 | $341 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 26, 2026? | Yes | 94.1¢ | 100¢ | +$25 | $395 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 3, 2026? | Yes | 82.0¢ | 100¢ | +$24 | $172 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 24, 2026? | Yes | 94.2¢ | 100¢ | +$24 | $388 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 23, 2026? | Yes | 92.8¢ | 100¢ | +$20 | $279 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 28, 2026? | Yes | 95.2¢ | 100¢ | +$19 | $382 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 25, 2026? | Yes | 89.0¢ | 100¢ | +$17 | $143 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 4, 2026? | Yes | 77.4¢ | 100¢ | +$17 | $86 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | No | 3.1¢ | 0¢ | +$16 | $56 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 7, 2026? | Yes | 83.0¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | $87 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 30, 2026? | Yes | 87.0¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | $98 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 29, 2026? | Yes | 92.7¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | $275 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel strike Gaza on March 8, 2026? | No | 11.5¢ | 0¢ | +$11 | $47 | 31/03/2026 |
| Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026? | No | 98.4¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $228 | 31/03/2026 |
| Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 73.0¢ | 0¢ | $-2 | $36 | 31/03/2026 |
| Houthi strike on Israel by March 15, 2026? | Yes | 29.0¢ | 0¢ | $-3 | $38 | 31/03/2026 |
| US/Israel strike Yemen by March 7? | Yes | 40.0¢ | 0¢ | $-15 | $40 | 31/03/2026 |
| Iran leadership change by March 31? | Yes | 17.0¢ | 0¢ | $-21 | $51 | 31/03/2026 |
| U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by March 31? | Yes | 9.2¢ | 0¢ | $-25 | $148 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 29, 2026? | Yes | 30.6¢ | 0¢ | $-34 | $34 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel strike Gaza on March 8, 2026? | Yes | 80.2¢ | 100¢ | $-37 | $283 | 31/03/2026 |
| Houthi strike on Israel by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 14.3¢ | 0¢ | $-58 | $124 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 28, 2026? | Yes | 86.2¢ | 0¢ | $-218 | $230 | 31/03/2026 |
| Hezbollah strike on Israel by March 7? | Yes | 85.5¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | $105 | 07/03/2026 |
| Iran/Hezbollah strike on Cyprus by March 7? | Yes | 4.8¢ | 0¢ | $-7 | $74 | 07/03/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET | Up | 61.1¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $23 | 04/03/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET | Down | 53.3¢ | 0¢ | +$1 | $22 | 04/03/2026 |
| Iran strike on US military by February 28? | Yes | 58.6¢ | 100¢ | +$99 | $144 | 28/02/2026 |
| Iran Strike on Israel by February 28? | Yes | 79.9¢ | 100¢ | +$81 | $508 | 28/02/2026 |