Win rate
48.2%
81 W / 87 L
Total PnL
$-52
realized $-1,050 · unrealized $998
Portfolio
$998
volume $184,249
Predictions
1,433
11.8/day · avg $129
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 04/02/2026 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | no |
Category breakdown
Other 56% +$329
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will 2026 be the third-hottest year on record? | Yes | 18¢ | 4¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will the US capture Khamenei before 2027? | No | 83¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| CDC issues Level 4 warning by December 31? | Yes | 13¢ | 30¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | No | 81¢ | 82¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Bilibili Gaming win the LPL 2026 season? | Yes | 50¢ | 52¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026? | No | 70¢ | 63¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? | Yes | 20¢ | 20¢ | $-11 | loss |
| Starmer out by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 15¢ | 0¢ | $-6 | loss |
| Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 21¢ | 20¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | Yes | 37¢ | 41¢ | $-2 | loss |
Geopolitics 49% +$323
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | Yes | 49¢ | 100¢ | +$28 | win |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 15, 2026? | Yes | 6¢ | 0¢ | $-83 | loss |
| Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? | Yes | 22¢ | 22¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes | 58¢ | 22¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | No | 29¢ | 0¢ | $-36 | loss |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | Yes | 68¢ | 100¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | No | 42¢ | 30¢ | $-87 | loss |
| Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026? | Yes | 16¢ | 14¢ | $-13 | loss |
| Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? | Yes | 25¢ | 25¢ | +$0 | win |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 42¢ | 100¢ | +$32 | win |
Tech 100% +$13
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? | Yes | 2¢ | 0¢ | +$13 | win |
Culture 0% $-6
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bad Bunny have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month? | Yes | 47¢ | 0¢ | $-6 | loss |
Weather 50% $-10
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will global temperature increase by less than 1.10ºC in March 2026? | No | 60¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 20-21°F on February 8? | Yes | 20¢ | 0¢ | $-21 | loss |
Politics 57% $-26
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Donald Trump visit China in 2026? | Yes | 94¢ | 95¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs? | Yes | 64¢ | 64¢ | +$1 | win |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? | Yes | 83¢ | 83¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will the Individual taxation referendum be approved in Switzerland’s 8 March 2026 popular vote? | Yes | 51¢ | 100¢ | +$21 | win |
| UK Cabinet Minister resigns by February 28, 2026? | Yes | 29¢ | 0¢ | $-45 | loss |
Mentions 0% $-43
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 7 to February 9, 2026? | Yes | 20¢ | 0¢ | $-36 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 7 to February 9, 2026? | No | 73¢ | 100¢ | $-5 | loss |
Economy 0% $-105
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US recession by end of 2026? | Yes | 26¢ | 26¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting? | Yes | 4¢ | 0¢ | $-71 | loss |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | $-31 | loss |
Esports 20% $-183
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Gen.G Esports win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? | Yes | 58¢ | 43¢ | $-4 | loss |
| Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs G2 Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Playoffs | G2 Esports | 57¢ | 0¢ | $-28 | loss |
| Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - Parken Challenger Championship Playoffs | 100 Thieves | 50¢ | 0¢ | $-7 | loss |
| LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - LCK Challengers League Kickoff Playoffs | Nongshim Esports Academy | 89¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Passion UA (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1 | Liquid | 59¢ | 0¢ | $-38 | loss |
| LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Versus Playoffs | G2 Esports | 61¢ | 100¢ | +$24 | win |
| Counter-Strike: NIP vs Legacy (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1 | NIP | 57¢ | 0¢ | $-62 | loss |
| Valorant: NOVO Esports vs FALKE ESPORTS (BO3) - VCL Spain: Rising Group B | FALKE ESPORTS | 39¢ | 0¢ | $-21 | loss |
| Dota 2: Aurora vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs | Xtreme Gaming | 40¢ | 0¢ | $-27 | loss |
| LoL: S2G Esports vs PCIFIC (BO3) - TCL Playoffs | PCIFIC | 11¢ | 0¢ | $-24 | loss |
Sports 38% $-210
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Yes | 8¢ | 5¢ | $-4 | loss |
| Timberwolves vs. Celtics | Celtics | 79¢ | 0¢ | $-31 | loss |
| LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO5) - LPL Playoffs | Anyones Legend | 75¢ | 0¢ | $-18 | loss |
| Dubai Tennis Championships: Pablo Carreno Busta vs Jiri Lehecka | Lehecka | 64¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | loss |
| LoL: Gen.G vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs | Gen.G | 90¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships, Qualification: Elisabetta Cocciaretto vs Anastasia Zakharova | Cocciaretto | 85¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will Cardi B perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? | Yes | 40¢ | 100¢ | +$25 | win |
| Will Ricky Martin perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? | No | 14¢ | 0¢ | $-150 | loss |
| Big Game: Octopus? | Yes | 4¢ | 0¢ | $-24 | loss |
| Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? | Yes | 13¢ | 0¢ | $-27 | loss |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeepSeek V4 released by April 15? | Yes | 64.0¢ | 0¢ | $-24 | $24 | 15/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | Yes | 34.1¢ | 91¢ | $-157 | $645 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will global temperature increase by less than 1.10ºC in March 2026? | No | 59.7¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | $23 | 10/04/2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | Yes | 48.6¢ | 100¢ | +$192 | $182 | 31/03/2026 |
| US forcibly removes Khamenei from power by March 31? | Yes | 20.1¢ | 0¢ | +$37 | $254 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? | Yes | 9.5¢ | 0¢ | +$22 | $62 | 31/03/2026 |
| Masoud Pezeshkian out by March 31? | Yes | 66.7¢ | 0¢ | +$3 | $24 | 31/03/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | Yes | 43.6¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | $234 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | Yes | 73.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $61 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 22, 2026? | Yes | 90.3¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | $23 | 31/03/2026 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 3.6¢ | 0¢ | $-15 | $50 | 31/03/2026 |
| France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? | Yes | 21.6¢ | 0¢ | $-17 | $84 | 31/03/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? | Yes | 16.3¢ | 0¢ | $-17 | $63 | 31/03/2026 |
| Iran leadership change by March 31? | Yes | 11.6¢ | 0¢ | $-30 | $222 | 31/03/2026 |
| Peter Mandelson charged by March 31? | Yes | 38.6¢ | 0¢ | $-37 | $69 | 31/03/2026 |
| Military action against Iran ends by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 27.1¢ | 0¢ | $-140 | $243 | 31/03/2026 |
| Miami Open: Iva Jovic vs Talia Gibson | Talia Gibson | 74.0¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $35 | 29/03/2026 |
| Miami Open: Tommy Paul vs Raphael Collignon | Tommy Paul | 68.6¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | $24 | 29/03/2026 |
| Miami Open: Iva Jovic vs Talia Gibson | Iva Jovic | 45.0¢ | 0¢ | $-20 | $31 | 29/03/2026 |
| Timberwolves vs. Celtics | Celtics | 78.8¢ | 0¢ | $-31 | $31 | 23/03/2026 |
| Will Virtus Entella win on 2026-03-22? | Yes | 72.6¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | $29 | 22/03/2026 |
| Will Lille OSC win on 2026-03-22? | Yes | 84.0¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $24 | 22/03/2026 |
| Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2026-03-22? | Yes | 47.0¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | $33 | 22/03/2026 |
| Spread: Wake Forest Demon Deacons (-7.5) | Wake Forest Demon Deacons | 41.7¢ | 0¢ | $-10 | $20 | 22/03/2026 |
| Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2026-03-22? | No | 54.2¢ | 0¢ | $-38 | $38 | 22/03/2026 |
| Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? | No | 74.0¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | $22 | 21/03/2026 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting? | Yes | 1.2¢ | 0¢ | $-31 | $47 | 18/03/2026 |
| QatarEnergy resumes LNG production by March 14? | No | 80.5¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | $99 | 14/03/2026 |
| Hersonissos: Michael Geerts vs Stefanos Sakellaridis | Stefanos Sakellaridis | 74.7¢ | 100¢ | +$17 | $53 | 12/03/2026 |
| Antalya 2: Julia Riera vs Guiomar Maristany | Guiomar Maristany | 68.9¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | $48 | 12/03/2026 |
| Antalya 2: Polina Kudermetova vs Panna Udvardy | Polina Kudermetova | 23.1¢ | 0¢ | +$1 | $22 | 12/03/2026 |
| Hersonissos: Lorenzo Giustino vs Buvaysar Gadamauri | Buvaysar Gadamauri | 57.7¢ | 0¢ | $-13 | $27 | 12/03/2026 |
| Kigali: Marco Trungelliti vs Joel Schwaerzler | Marco Trungelliti | 70.1¢ | 0¢ | $-24 | $42 | 12/03/2026 |
| BNP Paribas Open: Alexander Shevchenko vs Sho Shimabukuro | Sho Shimabukuro | 58.9¢ | 0¢ | $-27 | $27 | 12/03/2026 |
| Hersonissos: Ioannis Xilas vs Maxim Mrva | Maxim Mrva | 49.7¢ | 0¢ | $-35 | $35 | 12/03/2026 |
| BNP Paribas Open: Terence Atmane vs Grigor Dimitrov | Grigor Dimitrov | 69.9¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | $32 | 11/03/2026 |
| Brasilia: Facundo Acosta vs Luis Guto Miguel | Facundo Acosta | 85.8¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $22 | 11/03/2026 |
| Hersonissos: Lukas Neumayer vs Alex Rybakov | Lukas Neumayer | 94.6¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $23 | 11/03/2026 |
| Hersonissos: Harry Wendelken vs Stefan Dostanic | Stefan Dostanic | 86.1¢ | 0¢ | $-22 | $22 | 11/03/2026 |
| BNP Paribas Open: Donna Vekic vs Tereza Valentova | Tereza Valentova | 80.8¢ | 0¢ | $-28 | $43 | 11/03/2026 |
| Brasilia: Eduardo Ribeiro vs Franco Roncadelli | Eduardo Ribeiro | 73.6¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | $40 | 10/03/2026 |
| Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs G2 Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Playoffs | G2 Esports | 57.1¢ | 0¢ | $-28 | $28 | 10/03/2026 |
| Thionville: Sebastian Ofner vs George Loffhagen | Sebastian Ofner | 48.4¢ | 100¢ | +$25 | $24 | 09/03/2026 |
| Antalya 2: Berfu Cengiz vs Lucia Bronzetti | Lucia Bronzetti | 53.4¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | $33 | 09/03/2026 |
| Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - Parken Challenger Championship Playoffs | 100 Thieves | 49.6¢ | 0¢ | $-7 | $31 | 09/03/2026 |
| Will the Individual taxation referendum be approved in Switzerland’s 8 March 2026 popular vote? | Yes | 50.9¢ | 100¢ | +$21 | $23 | 08/03/2026 |
| Pune: Federico Cina vs Felix Gill | Federico Cina | 62.2¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | $24 | 08/03/2026 |
| Antalya: Moyuka Uchijima vs Anhelina Kalinina | Moyuka Uchijima | 63.0¢ | 100¢ | $-4 | $49 | 08/03/2026 |
| Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-03-07? | Yes | 44.7¢ | 100¢ | +$48 | $39 | 07/03/2026 |
| Will Iran strike Iraq in March? | Yes | 79.2¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | $56 | 07/03/2026 |