melchior1248

Geopolitics 48% +$2,127 $84,645 vol · 67 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will the US strike Iran next?	Yes	5¢	0¢	+$511	win
Will Israel strike 10 countries in 2026?	Yes	-0¢	1¢	+$158	win
Will Israel strike 12 countries in 2026?	No	100¢	100¢	$-194	loss
Will the US strike Iran next?	No	94¢	100¢	$-522	loss
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European country?	No	100¢	100¢	$-2,824	loss
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?	Yes	3¢	2¢	+$1,455	win
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	1¢	2¢	+$1,713	win
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?	Yes	96¢	100¢	$-503	loss
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?	No	5¢	0¢	$-145	loss
Will Israel strike 2 countries in March 2026?	Yes	-1¢	0¢	+$15	win

Economy 31% $-1 $5,970 vol · 17 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?	No	99¢	100¢	$-5	loss
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?	Yes	78¢	100¢	$-11	loss
Will US GDP growth in 2025 be between 1.0% and 1.5%?	Yes	24¢	0¢	$-92	loss
Will US GDP growth in 2025 be between 1.5% and 2.0%?	No	100¢	100¢	$-72	loss

Finance 20% $-678 $5,320 vol · 13 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Citigroup or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?	Yes	-0¢	1¢	+$333	win
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO day?	No	47¢	56¢	+$0	—
Will UBS or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?	No	99¢	100¢	$-283	loss

Weather 67% $-835 $49,469 vol · 85 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Cristiano Ronaldo play for San Jose Earthquakes next?	No	96¢	99¢	+$0	—
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?	Yes	-0¢	0¢	+$0	win
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?	No	100¢	100¢	+$0	win
Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by April 5?	No	100¢	100¢	+$1	win
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 15?	Yes	-0¢	0¢	+$0	win
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 15?	No	15¢	0¢	$-0	loss
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in February 2026?	Yes	82¢	100¢	$-25	loss
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.05ºC in February 2026?	No	100¢	100¢	$-699	loss
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 8?	Yes	-0¢	0¢	+$0	win
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 8?	No	13¢	0¢	$-0	loss

Culture 67% $-5,061 $638,608 vol · 391 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Project Hail Mary have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	No	100¢	100¢	+$0	win
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movie of 2026?	Yes	50¢	0¢	+$0	—
Will "Big Mistakes: Season 1" be the top global Netflix show this week?	No	100¢	100¢	$-36	loss
Will "Danny Go!: Season 1" be the top global Netflix show this week?	No	100¢	100¢	+$0	win
Will "Ms. Rachel: Season 1" be the top US Netflix show this week?	Yes	-0¢	0¢	+$1	win
Will "XO, Kitty Season 3" be the top US Netflix show this week?	No	2¢	0¢	$-4	loss
Will Wuthering Heights be the February film with the highest domestic gross on March 31?	Yes	-0¢	0¢	+$0	win
Will I Can Only Imagine 2 be the February film with the highest domestic gross on March 31?	No	99¢	100¢	$-21	loss
Will "Reminders of Him" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 13m?	Yes	-1¢	0¢	+$12	win
Will "Undertone" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 9m and 10m?	No	19¢	0¢	$-32	loss

Politics 45% $-8,001 $243,091 vol · 428 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	50¢	3¢	+$0	—
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	50¢	99¢	+$0	—
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	99¢	99¢	$-71	loss
Will Tulsi Gabbard be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?	Yes	-0¢	0¢	+$1	win
Will Scott Bessent be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?	No	100¢	100¢	$-525	loss
Will Jamieson Greer be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?	No	99¢	100¢	$-107	loss
Will Sean Duffy be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?	No	99¢	98¢	$-49	loss
Will Donald Trump be the next leader out before 2027?	No	100¢	100¢	$-336	loss
Will Jordan Wood be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?	No	100¢	100¢	$-373	loss
Will Beth Van Duyne win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	No	100¢	100¢	$-577	loss

Tech 38% $-11,808 $98,621 vol · 101 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	No	85¢	95¢	+$0	—
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	No	100¢	100¢	$-631	loss
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	100¢	100¢	$-4,439	loss
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?	Yes	-0¢	0¢	+$0	win
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?	Yes	-0¢	0¢	+$6	win
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?	No	100¢	100¢	$-55	loss
Will OpenAI have the best AI model for coding on March 31?	No	2¢	0¢	$-1	loss
Will OpenAI have the second-best AI model at the end of March 2026?	No	99¢	100¢	+$0	win
Will OpenAI have the second-best AI model at the end of March 2026?	Yes	-0¢	0¢	+$0	win
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?	No	99¢	100¢	+$0	win

Other 44% $-54,609 $1,594,231 vol · 1032 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SEX?	No	98¢	98¢	+$0	—
Will Dick Schoof be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	78¢	100¢	$-138	loss
Will the US strike Syria next?	No	95¢	100¢	$-422	loss
Will the US strike Somalia next?	Yes	86¢	100¢	$-392	loss
Will no listed leader be out before 2027?	No	100¢	100¢	$-1,318	loss
Will Al Carns be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?	Yes	-0¢	1¢	+$55	win
Will Yoon Suk Yeol be sentenced to less than 5 years in prison?	No	100¢	100¢	$-50	loss
Will Yoon Suk Yeol be sentenced to at least 30 years in prison?	Yes	31¢	100¢	+$26	win
Will David Lammy be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?	No	99¢	99¢	$-38	loss
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	No	100¢	100¢	$-21	loss

Elections 38% $-61,088 $864,408 vol · 261 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	50¢	99¢	+$0	—
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	50¢	22¢	+$0	—
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	99¢	99¢	$-1,402	loss
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	No	100¢	100¢	$-988	loss
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election	No	100¢	100¢	$-2,183	loss
Will Lee Jun-seok win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election?	No	100¢	100¢	$-847	loss
Will Mauricio Cárdenas win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	No	100¢	100¢	$-1,298	loss
Will Eric Ciotti win the 2026 Nice mayoral election?	Yes	97¢	100¢	$-916	loss
Will Christian Estrosi win the 2026 Nice mayoral election?	No	97¢	100¢	$-932	loss
Will GERB-SDS win the 2026 Bulgarian Parliamentary election by any margin?	Yes	-1¢	0¢	+$48	win

Sports 42% $-102,791 $683,642 vol · 339 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Claudia Sheinbaum be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	1¢	0¢	+$835	win
Will Claudia Sheinbaum be the next leader out before 2027?	No	100¢	100¢	$-844	loss
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?	Yes	-0¢	1¢	+$556	win
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	No	100¢	100¢	$-5,994	loss
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?	No	100¢	99¢	$-835	loss
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Yes	1¢	1¢	+$5,343	win
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2026 World Series?	No	99¢	99¢	$-228	loss
Will Peru win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	1¢	0¢	$-13	loss
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	100¢	99¢	$-488	loss
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	99¢	99¢	$-3,345	loss

Crypto 46% $-106,587 $2,929,253 vol · 4643 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	No	100¢	100¢	$-20	loss
Will "America: Our Defining Hours: Season 1" be the top global Netflix show this week?	No	99¢	100¢	$-35	loss
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 17?	Yes	96¢	100¢	$-162	loss
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on April 17?	No	97¢	98¢	$-364	loss
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 17?	No	100¢	100¢	$-199	loss
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on April 17?	No	99¢	100¢	$-60	loss
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on April 17?	No	99¢	99¢	$-143	loss
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on April 17?	Yes	99¢	100¢	$-61	loss
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on April 17?	No	98¢	100¢	$-48	loss
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on April 17?	Yes	1¢	2¢	+$436	win

Mentions 47% $-132,618 $3,808,122 vol · 1568 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026?	No	100¢	100¢	$-26	loss
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026?	Yes	-2¢	0¢	+$3	win
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026?	No	99¢	100¢	$-34	loss
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026?	Yes	6¢	14¢	+$113	win
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026?	No	100¢	100¢	$-708	loss
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026?	Yes	2¢	0¢	+$303	win
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026?	No	99¢	100¢	$-1,060	loss
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026?	Yes	11¢	0¢	+$3,071	win
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026?	Yes	2¢	0¢	$-42	loss
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026?	No	99¢	100¢	$-124	loss