Win rate
78.0%
46 W / 13 L
Total PnL
$-2,804
realized $-6,581 · unrealized $3,777
Portfolio
$3,777
volume $127,201
Predictions
69
1.3/day · avg $1,844
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 26/01/2026 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Elections 86% +$379
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | No | 26¢ | 34¢ | $-16 | loss |
| Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election | No | 92¢ | 92¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Sanae Takaichi be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the 2026 snap election? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$27 | win |
| Will Bhumjaithai Party (BJT) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election? | Yes | 89¢ | 100¢ | +$294 | win |
| Will People’s Party (PPLE) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$66 | win |
| Will the Liberal Democratic Party win the most seats in the 2026 Japanese general election? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | win |
| Will Pheu Thai Party (PT) finish in third place by number of seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
Other 100% +$358
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Yoon Suk Yeol be sentenced to no prison time? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$89 | win |
| Will the government shutdown last 14 days or more? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
| US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31? | No | 82¢ | 100¢ | +$53 | win |
| Will Kim Keon Hee be sentenced to prison by March 31? | Yes | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$33 | win |
| Will the DHS shutdown last 14 days or more? | Yes | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | win |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$21 | win |
| US evacuates Guadalajara consulate by Feb 28? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | win |
| Jesus Christ return before 2027 Odds >5% February 17, 12-1 AM? | No | 78¢ | 100¢ | +$63 | win |
Politics 80% +$326
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 10, 2026? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$39 | win |
Weather 100% +$47
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 3°C on March 6? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C on February 24? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C on February 18? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C on February 13? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 0°C on February 10? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
Culture 100% +$13
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will BLɅϽKPIИK release an album by February 28? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | win |
Geopolitics 61% $-3,844
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | Yes | 75¢ | 100¢ | +$115 | win |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | win |
| Will Hassan Rouhani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | No | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | 65¢ | 81¢ | +$146 | win |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | No | 81¢ | 94¢ | +$65 | win |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | No | 91¢ | 99¢ | +$49 | win |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | No | 42¢ | 0¢ | $-816 | loss |
| Will Russia enter Lyman by April 30? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | Yes | 21¢ | 100¢ | $-4 | loss |
| JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10? | No | 90¢ | 100¢ | $-513 | loss |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026? | No | 89.9¢ | 100¢ | +$117 | $1,034 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | Yes | 21.0¢ | 100¢ | $-4 | $42 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | No | 90.2¢ | 0¢ | $-1,428 | $3,441 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 12, 2026? | No | 93.2¢ | 100¢ | +$54 | $746 | 12/04/2026 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 10, 2026? | No | 96.8¢ | 100¢ | +$39 | $1,185 | 10/04/2026 |
| JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10? | No | 90.5¢ | 100¢ | $-513 | $769 | 10/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | No | 15.0¢ | 0¢ | $-178 | $414 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | No | 96.9¢ | 100¢ | +$211 | $5,798 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the government shutdown last 10 days or more? | No | 98.4¢ | 100¢ | +$63 | $3,926 | 31/03/2026 |
| US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31? | No | 82.3¢ | 100¢ | +$53 | $497 | 31/03/2026 |
| Iran leadership change by March 31? | No | 94.9¢ | 100¢ | +$52 | $1,150 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 20, 2026? | Yes | 38.4¢ | 100¢ | +$50 | $131 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 8, 2026? | No | 98.1¢ | 100¢ | +$50 | $235 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Kim Keon Hee be sentenced to prison by March 31? | Yes | 96.8¢ | 100¢ | +$33 | $1,017 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the government shutdown last 7 days or more? | No | 96.6¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | $386 | 31/03/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | No | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | $567 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the government shutdown last 14 days or more? | No | 98.7¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $490 | 31/03/2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? | No | 83.7¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $58 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the DHS shutdown last 14 days or more? | Yes | 94.3¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $142 | 14/03/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 3°C on March 6? | No | 98.7¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $30 | 06/03/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 7? | No | 93.1¢ | 100¢ | $-11 | $237 | 03/03/2026 |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? | Yes | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$21 | $1,973 | 28/02/2026 |
| Will BLɅϽKPIИK release an album by February 28? | Yes | 98.9¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | $1,125 | 28/02/2026 |
| US evacuates Guadalajara consulate by Feb 28? | No | 98.9¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | $840 | 28/02/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 3°C on February 24? | No | 97.7¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | $428 | 24/02/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C on February 24? | No | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $115 | 24/02/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C on February 18? | No | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $98 | 18/02/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C on February 13? | No | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $111 | 13/02/2026 |
| Jesus Christ return before 2027 Odds >5% February 17, 12-1 AM? | No | 78.1¢ | 100¢ | +$63 | $558 | 10/02/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 2°C on February 10? | No | 90.2¢ | 100¢ | +$18 | $163 | 10/02/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 1°C on February 10? | No | 98.1¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | $518 | 10/02/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 0°C on February 10? | No | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $591 | 10/02/2026 |
| Will Bhumjaithai Party (BJT) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election? | Yes | 89.4¢ | 100¢ | +$294 | $2,334 | 08/02/2026 |
| Will People’s Party (PPLE) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election? | No | 97.4¢ | 100¢ | +$66 | $2,568 | 08/02/2026 |
| Will the Liberal Democratic Party win the most seats in the 2026 Japanese general election? | Yes | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $806 | 08/02/2026 |
| Will Pheu Thai Party (PT) finish in third place by number of seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election? | Yes | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $50 | 08/02/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? | No | 91.6¢ | 100¢ | +$881 | $8,260 | 01/01/1970 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? | No | 90.0¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $35 | 01/01/1970 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? | No | 65.9¢ | 0¢ | $-2,265 | $4,326 | 01/01/1970 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 18, 2026? | No | 94.0¢ | 99¢ | +$117 | $2,091 | 18/04/2026 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026? | No | 95.0¢ | 94¢ | $-1 | $190 | 21/04/2026 |
| Iran leadership change by April 30? | No | 85.4¢ | 96¢ | +$24 | $239 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | No | 90.6¢ | 99¢ | +$49 | $1,039 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Sanae Takaichi be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the 2026 snap election? | Yes | 98.8¢ | 100¢ | +$27 | $4,270 | 30/04/2026 |
| JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by March 31? | No | 95.0¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | $333 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Russia enter Lyman by April 30? | Yes | 98.1¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $91 | 30/04/2026 |
| JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? | No | 86.6¢ | 0¢ | $-62 | $86 | 30/04/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | No | 41.8¢ | 0¢ | $-816 | $836 | 30/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? | No | 54.0¢ | 0¢ | $-152 | $907 | 31/05/2026 |
| Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election | No | 92.4¢ | 92¢ | +$0 | $46 | 03/06/2026 |