Win rate
30.5%
68 W / 155 L
Total PnL
$-14,205
realized $-19,298 · unrealized $5,093
Portfolio
$5,093
volume $396,971
Predictions
239
3.1/day · avg $1,661
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 23/07/2024 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 19/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 19/04/2026 |
| Qualified | no |
Category breakdown
Geopolitics 52% +$1,308
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US forces enter Iran by December 31? | Yes | 64¢ | 100¢ | +$171 | win |
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | Yes | 17¢ | 12¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | Yes | 19¢ | 0¢ | $-99 | loss |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | No | 4¢ | 0¢ | $-245 | loss |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | No | 38¢ | 0¢ | $-969 | loss |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | Yes | 11¢ | 9¢ | $-12 | loss |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? | No | 64¢ | 0¢ | $-7 | loss |
| Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 7¢ | 2¢ | $-14 | loss |
| Will the US next strike Iran before March 2026 (ET)? | Yes | 19¢ | 100¢ | +$498 | win |
| Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 4, 2026? | No | 62¢ | 100¢ | +$333 | win |
Elections 20% $-44
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 2¢ | 1¢ | $-124 | loss |
Finance 40% $-89
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027? | No | 14¢ | 4¢ | +$2 | win |
| Ramp IPO before 2027? | Yes | 19¢ | 18¢ | $-12 | loss |
| Will Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by March 31, 2026? | No | 23¢ | 0¢ | $-160 | loss |
Esports 0% $-126
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Jynxzi & Joe Bart win Jynxzi's Rocket League tournament? | Yes | 48¢ | 0¢ | $-126 | loss |
Crypto 33% $-130
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardano ETF in 2025? | No | 74¢ | 100¢ | +$28 | win |
| Will Meteora be accused of insider trading? | Yes | 39¢ | 0¢ | $-95 | loss |
Politics 25% $-220
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 1¢ | 1¢ | $-14 | loss |
| Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 3¢ | 2¢ | $-7 | loss |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | No | 57¢ | 61¢ | +$57 | win |
| Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? | No | 74¢ | 100¢ | +$25 | win |
| Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? | Yes | 25¢ | 0¢ | $-45 | loss |
| Will Trump and Machado share the Nobel Peace Prize? | No | 31¢ | 0¢ | $-65 | loss |
| Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? | Yes | 11¢ | 10¢ | $-84 | loss |
| Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? | Yes | 78¢ | 40¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will Trump visit China by May 31? | No | 29¢ | 12¢ | $-206 | loss |
| Will Trump say "Newsom" or "Newscum" during the State of the Union address? | Yes | 32¢ | 0¢ | $-161 | loss |
Culture 0% $-311
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | 14¢ | 0¢ | $-8 | loss |
| Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | 30¢ | 0¢ | $-94 | loss |
| Will Jacob Elordi win Best Supporting Actor in a Motion Picture at the 2026 SAG Awards? | Yes | 43¢ | 0¢ | $-209 | loss |
Weather 0% $-320
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. John's Red Storm vs. Kansas Jayhawks: O/U 144.5 | Over | 58¢ | 0¢ | $-174 | loss |
| St. John's Red Storm vs. Georgetown Hoyas | Georgetown Hoyas | 38¢ | 0¢ | $-146 | loss |
Sports 34% $-6,420
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Boston Red Sox win more than 85.5 games in the 2026 MLB Regular Season? | O 85.5 | 40¢ | 34¢ | $-19 | loss |
| Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Yes | 43¢ | 46¢ | +$35 | win |
| Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? | Yes | 12¢ | 0¢ | $-116 | loss |
| Will Cooper Flagg win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award? | Yes | 49¢ | 69¢ | $-307 | loss |
| Rockets vs. Lakers | Rockets | 7¢ | 8¢ | $-62 | loss |
| Chicago White Sox vs. Kansas City Royals | Kansas City Royals | 44¢ | 0¢ | $-151 | loss |
| Will Florida win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? | Yes | 11¢ | 0¢ | $-50 | loss |
| Bulls vs. Kings | Kings | 46¢ | 100¢ | $-29 | loss |
| Hornets vs. Suns | Hornets | 64¢ | 0¢ | $-578 | loss |
| Will the United States win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? | Yes | 19¢ | 0¢ | +$12 | win |
Other 26% $-8,806
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | Yes | 15¢ | 22¢ | +$13 | win |
| Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 40¢ | 24¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Will Tim Walz resign by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 22¢ | 8¢ | $-34 | loss |
| Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? | Yes | 30¢ | 16¢ | $-37 | loss |
| Will the US strike Somalia next? | No | 51¢ | 0¢ | $-150 | loss |
| Will Travis Kelce retire before next season? | Yes | 46¢ | 5¢ | $-11 | loss |
| Will Bill Clinton be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? | Yes | 35¢ | 4¢ | $-414 | loss |
| Starmer out by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 38¢ | 36¢ | $-12 | loss |
| Kash Patel out by June 30? | Yes | 57¢ | 72¢ | +$66 | win |
| Swalwell, Mills, Gonzales, and Cherfilus-McCormick all out by May 31? | Yes | 35¢ | 28¢ | $-122 | loss |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rockets vs. Lakers | Rockets | 6.6¢ | 8¢ | $-62 | $198 | 19/04/2026 |
| Chicago White Sox vs. Kansas City Royals | Kansas City Royals | 43.8¢ | 0¢ | $-151 | $154 | 19/04/2026 |
| Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? | Yes | 31.4¢ | 100¢ | +$762 | $350 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament? | Yes | 6.6¢ | 0¢ | $-40 | $40 | 13/04/2026 |
| Spread: Arizona Wildcats (-1.5) | Arizona Wildcats | 49.0¢ | 0¢ | $-1,000 | $1,000 | 05/04/2026 |
| Will Florida win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? | Yes | 11.5¢ | 0¢ | $-50 | $50 | 04/04/2026 |
| Arizona Wildcats vs. Michigan Wolverines | Arizona Wildcats | 51.0¢ | 0¢ | $-357 | $357 | 04/04/2026 |
| Connecticut Huskies vs. Illinois Fighting Illini | Illinois Fighting Illini | 44.7¢ | 0¢ | $-1,170 | $1,170 | 04/04/2026 |
| Will the US next strike Iran before March 2026 (ET)? | Yes | 19.4¢ | 100¢ | +$498 | $120 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 4, 2026? | No | 62.5¢ | 100¢ | +$333 | $555 | 31/03/2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | Yes | 24.0¢ | 100¢ | +$292 | $140 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 7? | No | 65.8¢ | 100¢ | +$157 | $364 | 31/03/2026 |
| Maduro out by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 41.0¢ | 100¢ | +$144 | $100 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6? | No | 76.0¢ | 100¢ | +$95 | $300 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Jimmy Kimmel be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31? | Yes | 26.1¢ | 100¢ | +$81 | $40 | 31/03/2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | No | 61.0¢ | 0¢ | +$23 | $200 | 31/03/2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? | Yes | 13.5¢ | 0¢ | $-48 | $100 | 31/03/2026 |
| Tim Walz charged by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 22.2¢ | 16¢ | $-86 | $251 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 31? | No | 14.9¢ | 0¢ | $-100 | $100 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | Yes | 23.7¢ | 0¢ | $-307 | $326 | 31/03/2026 |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? | Yes | 5.7¢ | 0¢ | $-435 | $550 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump visit China by May 31? | No | 29.0¢ | 12¢ | $-206 | $362 | 31/03/2026 |
| Final Stage: Dominican Rep. vs. USA | Dominican Rep. | 45.0¢ | 0¢ | $-270 | $270 | 23/03/2026 |
| Utah State Aggies vs. Arizona Wildcats | Utah State Aggies | 13.0¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | $130 | 22/03/2026 |
| Spread: Arkansas Razorbacks (-7.5) | Arkansas Razorbacks | 46.0¢ | 0¢ | $-92 | $92 | 22/03/2026 |
| UCLA Bruins vs. Connecticut Huskies | UCLA Bruins | 36.0¢ | 0¢ | $-111 | $111 | 22/03/2026 |
| St. John's Red Storm vs. Kansas Jayhawks: O/U 144.5 | Over | 58.0¢ | 0¢ | $-174 | $174 | 22/03/2026 |
| Spread: Arkansas Razorbacks (-8.5) | Arkansas Razorbacks | 50.0¢ | 0¢ | $-190 | $190 | 22/03/2026 |
| Spread: Florida Gators (-9.5) | Florida Gators | 57.0¢ | 0¢ | $-200 | $200 | 22/03/2026 |
| Spread: Arkansas Razorbacks (-10.5) | Arkansas Razorbacks | 25.0¢ | 0¢ | $-50 | $50 | 21/03/2026 |
| Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Nebraska Cornhuskers: O/U 147.5 | Over | 59.8¢ | 0¢ | $-90 | $90 | 21/03/2026 |
| Hezbollah military action against Israel by March 20? | No | 37.9¢ | 0¢ | $-120 | $120 | 20/03/2026 |
| Will Dominican Republic win the 2026 World Baseball Classic? | Yes | 19.9¢ | 0¢ | $-265 | $265 | 17/03/2026 |
| Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | 14.1¢ | 0¢ | $-8 | $25 | 15/03/2026 |
| Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | 30.0¢ | 0¢ | $-94 | $205 | 15/03/2026 |
| Spread: Florida Gators (-8.5) | Florida Gators | 47.3¢ | 0¢ | $-120 | $120 | 14/03/2026 |
| Spread: Florida Gators (-7.5) | Florida Gators | 51.7¢ | 0¢ | $-210 | $210 | 14/03/2026 |
| First Round Pool C: Czechia vs. Australia | Czechia | 36.2¢ | 0¢ | $-43 | $43 | 13/03/2026 |
| Bulls vs. Kings | Kings | 46.2¢ | 100¢ | $-29 | $605 | 09/03/2026 |
| Hornets vs. Suns | Hornets | 64.0¢ | 0¢ | $-578 | $578 | 09/03/2026 |
| Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-10.5) | Michigan Wolverines | 46.7¢ | 0¢ | $-140 | $140 | 08/03/2026 |
| Kansas Jayhawks vs. Arizona State Sun Devils | Kansas Jayhawks | 41.0¢ | 0¢ | $-250 | $250 | 04/03/2026 |
| Spread: Gonzaga Bulldogs (-2.5) | Gonzaga Bulldogs | 64.3¢ | 0¢ | $-141 | $141 | 01/03/2026 |
| Will Jacob Elordi win Best Supporting Actor in a Motion Picture at the 2026 SAG Awards? | Yes | 42.8¢ | 0¢ | $-209 | $209 | 01/03/2026 |
| Gonzaga Bulldogs vs. Saint Mary's Gaels | Gonzaga Bulldogs | 40.1¢ | 0¢ | $-509 | $711 | 01/03/2026 |
| Iran strike on US military by February 28? | Yes | 14.7¢ | 100¢ | +$262 | $46 | 28/02/2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | Yes | 56.4¢ | 100¢ | +$230 | $300 | 28/02/2026 |
| Will Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by February 28, 2026? | No | 13.9¢ | 100¢ | +$87 | $71 | 28/02/2026 |
| Kansas Jayhawks vs. Arizona Wildcats | Kansas Jayhawks | 19.0¢ | 0¢ | $-61 | $61 | 28/02/2026 |
| Will Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by March 31, 2026? | No | 22.8¢ | 0¢ | $-160 | $453 | 28/02/2026 |