Win rate
72.2%
328 W / 126 L
Total PnL
$236,764
realized $-13,338 · unrealized $250,101
Portfolio
$250,101
volume $35,116,616
Predictions
399
10.0/day · avg $88,012
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 11/01/2026 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Geopolitics 77% +$190,905
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | No | 75¢ | 82¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | 56¢ | 84¢ | +$643 | win |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026? | No | 81¢ | 0¢ | $-668 | loss |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | No | 55¢ | 0¢ | +$236 | win |
| Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? | No | 74¢ | 83¢ | +$109 | win |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes | 56¢ | 22¢ | +$54 | win |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | Yes | 41¢ | 26¢ | +$45 | win |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | Yes | 36¢ | 16¢ | +$0 | win |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | Yes | 45¢ | 30¢ | $-4 | loss |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 70¢ | 78¢ | +$26,732 | win |
Politics 70% +$24,858
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | No | 50¢ | 72¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 50¢ | 28¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | No | 88¢ | 92¢ | +$3,856 | win |
| Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? | No | 81¢ | 100¢ | +$51 | win |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | Yes | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$774 | win |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | Yes | 21¢ | 8¢ | +$393 | win |
| Will Trump and Machado share the Nobel Peace Prize? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$244 | win |
| US strikes Iran or Trump announces Fed nominee first? | Trump Announce Fed | 87¢ | 100¢ | $-155 | loss |
| US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$36 | win |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 19, 2026? | Yes | 18¢ | 28¢ | $-13 | loss |
Elections 67% +$9,004
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 50¢ | 19¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | 50¢ | 83¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 28¢ | 25¢ | +$342 | win |
| Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 85¢ | 75¢ | $-3,189 | loss |
| Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 44¢ | 11¢ | +$289 | win |
| Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 62¢ | 86¢ | +$2,774 | win |
| Will the Freedom Movement (GS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election? | Yes | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$1,101 | win |
| Will the Freedom Movement (GS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election? | No | 16¢ | 0¢ | $-83 | loss |
| Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections? | Yes | 90¢ | 100¢ | +$27 | win |
| Will The Greens win the second most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections? | Yes | 22¢ | 0¢ | $-37 | loss |
Other 59% +$8,820
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch? | Yes | 90¢ | 100¢ | +$213 | win |
| Opinion FDV above $1B one day after launch? | No | 36¢ | 100¢ | $-46 | loss |
| Over $4M committed to the Fabric public sale? | Yes | 41¢ | 0¢ | $-166 | loss |
| Over $200K committed to the Foresee public sale? | No | 18¢ | 0¢ | $-292 | loss |
| Over $8M committed to the Trove public sale? | No | 31¢ | 0¢ | $-2,948 | loss |
| Hurupay FDV above $5M one day after launch? | No | 71¢ | 81¢ | +$93 | win |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | No | 78¢ | 82¢ | +$3,661 | win |
| US strike on Cuba by March 31? | No | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$412 | win |
| Will the US strike Somalia next? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | win |
| Will Anutin Charnvirakul be the next prime minister of Thailand? | Yes | 68¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
Crypto 73% +$3,391
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? | No | 59¢ | 60¢ | $-34 | loss |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30? | No | 95¢ | 98¢ | $-98 | loss |
| Will USD.AI launch a token by March 31? | No | 56¢ | 100¢ | +$44 | win |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March? | Yes | 94¢ | 100¢ | $-917 | loss |
| Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31? | Yes | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$185 | win |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February? | No | 56¢ | 100¢ | +$215 | win |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? | Yes | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$84 | win |
| Will another company be accused of insider trading? | Yes | 23¢ | 0¢ | $-58 | loss |
| Will Robinhood be accused of insider trading? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
Tech 67% +$2,271
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by June 30? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$186 | win |
| Over $3M committed to the Hurupay public sale? | Yes | 56¢ | 0¢ | $-98 | loss |
| Over $2M committed to the Hurupay public sale? | No | 58¢ | 0¢ | $-77 | loss |
Sports 100% +$1,910
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Germany win the third most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? | No | 91¢ | 100¢ | +$82 | win |
| Will Cardi B perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? | Yes | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$1,828 | win |
Economy 50% +$1,520
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | Yes | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$1,598 | win |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | No | 7¢ | 0¢ | $-78 | loss |
Finance 67% $-783
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pam Bondi out as Attorney General by June 30? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will SOLV Energy, Inc.'s market cap be less than $3.8B at market close on IPO day? | Yes | 41¢ | 0¢ | $-10,989 | loss |
| Will SOLV Energy, Inc.'s market cap be greater than $5.4B at market close on IPO day? | No | 51¢ | 0¢ | $-171 | loss |
Esports 50% $-2,972
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Counter-Strike: Legacy vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs | Aurora Gaming | 89¢ | 100¢ | $-72 | loss |
| Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs | Natus Vincere | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$188 | win |
| Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs | TheMongolz | 31¢ | 0¢ | $-144 | loss |
| Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stage | TheMongolz | 54¢ | 100¢ | +$2,767 | win |
| Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stage | B8 | 64¢ | 0¢ | $-6,178 | loss |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 22.5¢ | 0¢ | +$10,448 | $23,171 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | No | 80.8¢ | 0¢ | +$1,468 | $99,798 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | Yes | 96.4¢ | 100¢ | +$1,139 | $123,423 | 15/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | Yes | 53.0¢ | 91¢ | +$720 | $10,962 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026? | No | 94.6¢ | 100¢ | +$648 | $23,650 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 87.4¢ | 100¢ | +$234 | $3,317 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15? | No | 57.2¢ | 100¢ | +$226 | $1,942 | 15/04/2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? | No | 99.1¢ | 100¢ | +$135 | $12,139 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15? | Yes | 38.0¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | $31 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, 2026? | No | 83.0¢ | 98¢ | $-22 | $830 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | Yes | 25.0¢ | 0¢ | $-87 | $1,401 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | No | 94.0¢ | 100¢ | $-106 | $6,459 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 26.0¢ | 0¢ | $-189 | $1,314 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15? | No | 85.8¢ | 0¢ | $-613 | $17,065 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | No | 79.7¢ | 100¢ | $-1,718 | $67,623 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? | Yes | 99.1¢ | 100¢ | +$1,760 | $93,579 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 13, 2026? | Yes | 92.0¢ | 100¢ | +$161 | $1,843 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | Yes | 87.3¢ | 99¢ | +$5,839 | $111,428 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 44.0¢ | 11¢ | +$289 | $2,200 | 12/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 12, 2026? | Yes | 96.0¢ | 100¢ | +$25 | $1,157 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | No | 28.0¢ | 1¢ | +$0 | $9,029 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | Yes | 13.5¢ | 1¢ | $-8 | $1,323 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | No | 85.0¢ | 99¢ | $-777 | $13,949 | 12/04/2026 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 12, 2026? | No | 94.3¢ | 100¢ | $-3,237 | $47,492 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 40.3¢ | 14¢ | $-2,675 | $6,777 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 62.4¢ | 86¢ | +$2,774 | $9,175 | 12/04/2026 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 10, 2026? | No | 96.1¢ | 100¢ | +$341 | $8,397 | 10/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 10? | Yes | 98.5¢ | 100¢ | +$255 | $16,745 | 10/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? | No | 75.1¢ | 100¢ | $-593 | $12,318 | 10/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | Yes | 98.9¢ | 100¢ | +$15,564 | $178,940 | 07/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | No | 94.7¢ | 0¢ | +$3,484 | $220,806 | 07/04/2026 |
| Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? | Yes | 39.8¢ | 100¢ | +$1,050 | $2,319 | 07/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th? | No | 88.3¢ | 100¢ | +$826 | $21,081 | 07/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | No | 54.7¢ | 9¢ | $-369 | $15,954 | 07/04/2026 |
| Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? | No | 66.1¢ | 0¢ | $-550 | $3,682 | 07/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | Yes | 87.8¢ | 91¢ | +$2,978 | $30,672 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Weather" or "Rain" or "Raining" during the White House Easter Egg Roll? | No | 79.9¢ | 100¢ | +$19 | $77 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Epic Fury" during the White House Easter Egg Roll? | No | 88.9¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | $109 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Sleepy Joe" or "Biden" during the White House Easter Egg Roll? | No | 96.6¢ | 0¢ | $-1,065 | $1,121 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Obliterated" or "Obliteration" during the White House Easter Egg Roll? | No | 97.6¢ | 0¢ | $-1,473 | $1,473 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will USD.AI launch a token by March 31? | No | 56.0¢ | 100¢ | +$44 | $56 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March? | Yes | 93.8¢ | 100¢ | $-917 | $12,817 | 01/04/2026 |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$5,667 | $613,588 | 31/03/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | Yes | 11.0¢ | 0¢ | +$5,124 | $18,494 | 31/03/2026 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 14.9¢ | 0¢ | +$2,760 | $36,152 | 31/03/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | No | 96.4¢ | 100¢ | +$2,505 | $354,631 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | No | 99.6¢ | 100¢ | +$2,138 | $235,060 | 31/03/2026 |
| US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31? | Yes | 96.1¢ | 100¢ | +$2,063 | $51,389 | 31/03/2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | Yes | 96.7¢ | 100¢ | +$1,790 | $96,448 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will another country strike Iran by March 31? | No | 36.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1,235 | $5,031 | 31/03/2026 |