Win rate
45.3%
155 W / 187 L
Total PnL
$14,283
realized $10,743 · unrealized $3,539
Portfolio
$3,539
volume $515,521
Predictions
358
2.3/day · avg $1,440
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 04/05/2024 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | no |
Category breakdown
Geopolitics 47% +$9,878
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | Yes | 36¢ | 0¢ | $-82 | loss |
| Will the US strike Iran next? | Yes | 28¢ | 0¢ | $-200 | loss |
| Israel strikes Iran by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 48¢ | 100¢ | +$227 | win |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30? | No | 41¢ | 2¢ | $-67 | loss |
| Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? | No | 24¢ | 23¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 8, 2026? | No | 16¢ | 0¢ | +$264 | win |
| Military action against Iran ends on April 9, 2026? | Yes | 45¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | win |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 6¢ | 1¢ | $-42 | loss |
| Will Iran strike UAE by April 30, 2026? | No | 11¢ | 0¢ | $-55 | loss |
| Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by April 30? | No | 60¢ | 0¢ | $-166 | loss |
Politics 47% +$5,928
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? | No | 57¢ | 55¢ | $-5 | loss |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? | No | 80¢ | 100¢ | +$618 | win |
| Will Mike Waltz leave the Trump administration in 2025? | Yes | 31¢ | 100¢ | +$438 | win |
| Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025? | Yes | 15¢ | 0¢ | $-46 | loss |
| Will Michael Anton be next National Security Advisor? | Yes | 28¢ | 0¢ | $-55 | loss |
| Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? | Yes | 15¢ | 0¢ | $-63 | loss |
| Will Trump deport less than 250,000? | Yes | 13¢ | 0¢ | $-87 | loss |
| Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google this year? | Yes | 20¢ | 0¢ | $-120 | loss |
| Will Trump meet with Putin by December 31? | Yes | 48¢ | 0¢ | $-233 | loss |
| Trump agrees to sell F-35 to Saudi Arabia by November 30? | No | 57¢ | 0¢ | $-400 | loss |
Elections 71% +$4,775
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will André Ventura win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | No | 65¢ | 100¢ | $-20 | loss |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Yes | 91¢ | 100¢ | +$142 | win |
| Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 53¢ | 100¢ | +$1,774 | win |
| Will a Republican win Pennsylvania Presidential Election? | Yes | 50¢ | 100¢ | +$1,000 | win |
| Will a Democrat win Ohio US Senate Election? | No | 51¢ | 100¢ | +$965 | win |
| Will a Republican win Texas US Senate Election? | Yes | 85¢ | 100¢ | +$732 | win |
| Will a Republican win Nevada Presidential Election? | Yes | 60¢ | 100¢ | +$663 | win |
| Will a Republican win Georgia Presidential Election? | Yes | 67¢ | 100¢ | +$493 | win |
| Will a Democrat win Iowa Presidential Election? | No | 81¢ | 100¢ | +$384 | win |
| Will Pennsylvania be the tipping point state? | Yes | 38¢ | 100¢ | +$244 | win |
Sports 75% +$274
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Kamala say "inflation" at debate? | Yes | 82¢ | 100¢ | +$44 | win |
| Will Australia win the 3rd most gold medals? | No | 17¢ | 100¢ | +$368 | win |
| USA wins the most gold medals in 2024 Paris Olympics? | Yes | 66¢ | 100¢ | $-201 | loss |
| Will Novak Djokovic (SRB) win Gold in Men's Tennis? | Yes | 60¢ | 100¢ | +$63 | win |
Mentions 100% +$12
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon tweet 225-249 times? | Yes | 89¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | win |
Tech 0% $-219
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Pope Leo XIV be the #1 searched person on Google this year? | Yes | 32¢ | 0¢ | $-119 | loss |
| Will Apple remain largest company through Sep 30? | Yes | 80¢ | 0¢ | $-100 | loss |
Economy 0% $-1,230
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houthis successfully target shipping by March 31? | No | 76¢ | 100¢ | $-50 | loss |
| No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? | Yes | 7¢ | 0¢ | $-1,000 | loss |
| Mississippi State vs. Texas A&M | Mississippi State | 16¢ | 0¢ | $-62 | loss |
| Tennessee vs. Mississippi State | Mississippi State | 30¢ | 0¢ | $-118 | loss |
Crypto 14% $-2,493
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in April? | No | 44¢ | 0¢ | $-501 | loss |
| Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in January? | No | 38¢ | 0¢ | $-1,908 | loss |
| Will Bitcoin reach $94,000 January 12-18? | No | 31¢ | 0¢ | $-300 | loss |
| Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31? | No | 52¢ | 100¢ | +$854 | win |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense before July? | Yes | 30¢ | 0¢ | $-500 | loss |
| Solana above $160 on August 9? | No | 81¢ | 100¢ | $-29 | loss |
| Solana above $160 on August 9? | Yes | 19¢ | 0¢ | $-110 | loss |
Other 43% $-2,510
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US strike on Mexico by March 31? | Yes | 12¢ | 0¢ | +$25 | win |
| Will the US strike Syria next? | Yes | 92¢ | 100¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? | Yes | 37¢ | 16¢ | $-43 | loss |
| Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 14¢ | 6¢ | $-17 | loss |
| Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30? | Yes | 50¢ | 16¢ | $-39 | loss |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | No | 51¢ | 64¢ | +$125 | win |
| Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? | No | 54¢ | 58¢ | +$27 | win |
| Will 80 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 13-April 19? | No | 61¢ | 60¢ | $-13 | loss |
| Will 80 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 13-April 19? | Yes | 46¢ | 40¢ | $-15 | loss |
| Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day April 8–12? | No | 72¢ | 100¢ | +$39 | win |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day April 8–12? | No | 72.0¢ | 100¢ | +$39 | $100 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will 60 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 6-April 12? | Yes | 65.6¢ | 0¢ | $-6 | $104 | 12/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? | No | 68.7¢ | 100¢ | $-194 | $247 | 10/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | No | 64.2¢ | 0¢ | $-36 | $100 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will 45 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 30-April 5? | Yes | 52.4¢ | 100¢ | +$151 | $166 | 05/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? | No | 80.0¢ | 100¢ | +$618 | $3,863 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | No | 64.4¢ | 100¢ | +$379 | $800 | 31/03/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | No | 88.1¢ | 100¢ | +$217 | $1,703 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran first? | Israel | 16.4¢ | 50¢ | +$185 | $162 | 31/03/2026 |
| US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30? | No | 70.4¢ | 80¢ | +$131 | $685 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? | No | 73.5¢ | 100¢ | +$126 | $350 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31? | Yes | 70.0¢ | 100¢ | +$102 | $240 | 31/03/2026 |
| US x Venezuela military engagement by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 53.0¢ | 100¢ | +$44 | $50 | 31/03/2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | No | 20.0¢ | 0¢ | +$37 | $100 | 31/03/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | Yes | 19.4¢ | 0¢ | +$13 | $100 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 6.7¢ | 0¢ | $-8 | $50 | 31/03/2026 |
| Houthis successfully target shipping by March 31? | No | 76.4¢ | 100¢ | $-50 | $500 | 31/03/2026 |
| US/Israel strike Yemen by March 31? | Yes | 41.8¢ | 0¢ | $-100 | $100 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? | No | 61.7¢ | 0¢ | $-201 | $201 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will 15-19 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23? | Yes | 62.5¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | $333 | 23/03/2026 |
| Will Witkoff meet with Iranian officials by February 28? | No | 20.2¢ | 0¢ | +$262 | $134 | 28/02/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in January? | No | 37.8¢ | 0¢ | $-1,908 | $4,501 | 01/02/2026 |
| Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 31? | No | 29.4¢ | 100¢ | +$207 | $128 | 31/01/2026 |
| Will the US not strike Iran by January 31, 2026? | Yes | 72.0¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | $348 | 31/01/2026 |
| US government shutdown Saturday? | Yes | 74.8¢ | 100¢ | $-2 | $214 | 31/01/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026? | Yes | 68.0¢ | 0¢ | $-9 | $80 | 31/01/2026 |
| Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 31? | Yes | 26.0¢ | 0¢ | $-12 | $100 | 31/01/2026 |
| Will the US next strike Iran on January 16, 2026 (ET)? | Yes | 9.8¢ | 0¢ | $-100 | $100 | 31/01/2026 |
| Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by January 31, 2026? | Yes | 22.5¢ | 0¢ | $-100 | $100 | 31/01/2026 |
| Will Russia enter Sofiivka by January 31? | Yes | 47.0¢ | 0¢ | $-101 | $193 | 31/01/2026 |
| Will there be 15 or more inches of snow in D.C. this weekend? | No | 55.7¢ | 100¢ | +$36 | $50 | 26/01/2026 |
| Will André Ventura win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | No | 64.8¢ | 100¢ | $-20 | $100 | 25/01/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $94,000 January 12-18? | No | 30.9¢ | 0¢ | $-300 | $300 | 19/01/2026 |
| New "Stranger Things" episode released by Wednesday? | No | 98.6¢ | 100¢ | +$28 | $1,923 | 07/01/2026 |
| Will a new country join the Abraham Accords in 2025? | Yes | 87.0¢ | 0¢ | $-526 | $2,695 | 01/01/2026 |
| Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31? | No | 52.2¢ | 100¢ | +$854 | $1,045 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Mike Waltz leave the Trump administration in 2025? | Yes | 31.4¢ | 100¢ | +$438 | $200 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by December 31? | No | 47.5¢ | 100¢ | +$81 | $100 | 31/12/2025 |
| US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025? | No | 48.1¢ | 100¢ | +$62 | $350 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Russia capture Huliaipole by December 31? | No | 57.0¢ | 0¢ | +$60 | $200 | 31/12/2025 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? | Yes | 2.3¢ | 0¢ | +$4 | $100 | 31/12/2025 |
| US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31? | Yes | 50.5¢ | 0¢ | $-11 | $500 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Russia capture Rodynske by December 31? | Yes | 41.0¢ | 0¢ | $-41 | $100 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy in 2025? | Yes | 18.0¢ | 0¢ | $-44 | $100 | 31/12/2025 |
| Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025? | Yes | 14.6¢ | 0¢ | $-46 | $656 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Russia capture Rodynske by February 28? | Yes | 55.0¢ | 0¢ | $-50 | $100 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by March 31? | Yes | 17.1¢ | 0¢ | $-50 | $50 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Michael Anton be next National Security Advisor? | Yes | 28.0¢ | 0¢ | $-55 | $90 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? | Yes | 15.0¢ | 0¢ | $-63 | $105 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Trump deport less than 250,000? | Yes | 13.2¢ | 0¢ | $-87 | $397 | 31/12/2025 |