Win rate
42.6%
66 W / 89 L
Total PnL
$106
realized $-434 · unrealized $540
Portfolio
$540
volume $213,017
Predictions
220
3.4/day · avg $968
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 11/03/2025 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | no |
Category breakdown
Geopolitics 51% +$1,026
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? | Yes | 12¢ | 12¢ | $-11 | loss |
| Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? | Yes | 22¢ | 25¢ | $-48 | loss |
| US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | Yes | 71¢ | 78¢ | +$24 | win |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | No | 68¢ | 88¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? | Yes | 21¢ | 16¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 19¢ | 8¢ | $-11 | loss |
| Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30? | No | 72¢ | 82¢ | $-14 | loss |
| Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026? | Yes | 65¢ | 100¢ | $-53 | loss |
| Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026? | No | 5¢ | 0¢ | $-99 | loss |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | Yes | 22¢ | 24¢ | +$3 | win |
Sports 75% +$56
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Sweden qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 55¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | win |
| UFC Fight Night: Mason Jones vs. Axel Sola (Lightweight, Prelims) | Mason Jones | 58¢ | 100¢ | +$42 | win |
| LoL: Natus Vincere vs Fnatic (BO3) - LEC Versus Playoffs | Natus Vincere | 47¢ | 100¢ | +$28 | win |
| Will Coinbase be accused of insider trading? | Yes | 6¢ | 0¢ | $-21 | loss |
Elections 50% +$39
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 13¢ | 10¢ | +$42 | win |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Yes | 88¢ | 100¢ | $-2 | loss |
Tech 100% +$9
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over $50M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? | No | 86¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | win |
Crypto 29% $-23
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | 29¢ | 42¢ | $-30 | loss |
| Will Backpack launch a token by March 31? | No | 74¢ | 0¢ | $-50 | loss |
| Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase March 24-30? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET | Down | 67¢ | 0¢ | $-26 | loss |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET | Down | 47¢ | 0¢ | $-25 | loss |
| Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025? | Yes | 38¢ | 0¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2025? | Yes | 5¢ | 0¢ | $-22 | loss |
| Bitcoin Up or Down on September 18? | Up | 55¢ | 100¢ | $-28 | loss |
| Ethereum above $4400 on August 22? | Yes | 11¢ | 100¢ | +$118 | win |
| Ethereum above $4200 on August 22? | No | 14¢ | 0¢ | +$87 | win |
Esports 50% $-29
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dota 2: Aurora vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - DreamLeague Stage 2 | Aurora | 62¢ | 100¢ | +$38 | win |
| Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group A | FUT Esports | 47¢ | 0¢ | $-67 | loss |
Other 33% $-342
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Predict.fun FDV above $600M one day after launch? | Yes | 23¢ | 25¢ | $-1 | loss |
| EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch? | Yes | 25¢ | 0¢ | +$168 | win |
| Moonbirds FDV above $300M one day after launch? | No | 42¢ | 100¢ | +$46 | win |
| EdgeX FDV above $400M one day after launch? | No | 18¢ | 0¢ | $-22 | loss |
| Ink FDV above $1B one day after launch? | Yes | 27¢ | 27¢ | $-21 | loss |
| Moonbirds FDV above $300M one day after launch? | Yes | 60¢ | 0¢ | $-6 | loss |
| Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch? | Yes | 47¢ | 0¢ | $-88 | loss |
| Hyperlend FDV above $20M one day after launch? | No | 33¢ | 0¢ | $-174 | loss |
| Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | Yes | 27¢ | 34¢ | +$17 | win |
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | Yes | 23¢ | 24¢ | +$11 | win |
Politics 45% $-415
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 28¢ | 20¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will Trump nominate Michelle Bowman as the next Fed chair? | Yes | 4¢ | 0¢ | $-29 | loss |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | No | 80¢ | 92¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? | Yes | 21¢ | 16¢ | $-10 | loss |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 12, 2026? | Yes | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | win |
| Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? | No | 58¢ | 0¢ | $-55 | loss |
| Susie Wiles out as White House Chief of Staff by March 31? | No | 80¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | win |
| Will Trump say "Regime Change" this week? (March 29) | Yes | 35¢ | 100¢ | +$33 | win |
| Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? | Yes | 5¢ | 0¢ | $-8 | loss |
| Will Trump pardon Changpeng Zhao in 2025? | No | 47¢ | 0¢ | $-5 | loss |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | Yes | 32.0¢ | 88¢ | +$21 | $220 | 15/04/2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? | Yes | 11.0¢ | 0¢ | $-6 | $400 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 17.0¢ | 2¢ | $-23 | $240 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | Yes | 66.1¢ | 99¢ | +$12 | $210 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 12, 2026? | Yes | 94.6¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $130 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Sweden qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 55.3¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $62 | 12/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | No | 2.9¢ | 0¢ | +$102 | $37 | 07/04/2026 |
| Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? | No | 58.1¢ | 0¢ | $-55 | $203 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | No | 17.8¢ | 0¢ | +$136 | $126 | 31/03/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | No | 81.0¢ | 100¢ | +$73 | $1,502 | 31/03/2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? | No | 90.0¢ | 100¢ | +$56 | $953 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase March 24-30? | No | 98.8¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | $1,429 | 31/03/2026 |
| Susie Wiles out as White House Chief of Staff by March 31? | No | 80.0¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | $40 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | Yes | 54.9¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | $302 | 31/03/2026 |
| LoL: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - LEC Group Stage | Team Vitality | 71.0¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | $71 | 31/03/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | Yes | 21.0¢ | 0¢ | $-2 | $50 | 31/03/2026 |
| Houthi strike on Israel by March 15, 2026? | Yes | 28.6¢ | 0¢ | $-4 | $30 | 31/03/2026 |
| Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 9.2¢ | 0¢ | $-4 | $25 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6? | No | 51.4¢ | 100¢ | $-7 | $100 | 31/03/2026 |
| LoL: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality - Game 1 Winner | Team Vitality | 59.0¢ | 100¢ | $-11 | $60 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the government shutdown last 10 days or more? | Yes | 12.0¢ | 0¢ | $-33 | $33 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more? | No | 51.0¢ | 100¢ | $-91 | $424 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Regime Change" this week? (March 29) | Yes | 34.9¢ | 100¢ | +$33 | $30 | 29/03/2026 |
| Will Sweden win on 2026-03-26? | Yes | 43.0¢ | 100¢ | +$86 | $65 | 26/03/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET | Down | 67.0¢ | 0¢ | $-26 | $26 | 24/03/2026 |
| UFC Fight Night: Mason Jones vs. Axel Sola (Lightweight, Prelims) | Mason Jones | 58.0¢ | 100¢ | +$42 | $58 | 22/03/2026 |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by March 13? | No | 51.0¢ | 100¢ | +$34 | $38 | 13/03/2026 |
| Will a Gulf State strike Iran by March 7? | No | 32.2¢ | 100¢ | +$164 | $109 | 07/03/2026 |
| Will Greczula win Melodifestivalen 2026? | Yes | 12.4¢ | 0¢ | $-17 | $40 | 07/03/2026 |
| Will Felicia win Melodifestivalen 2026? | No | 16.0¢ | 0¢ | $-58 | $89 | 07/03/2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | No | 6.3¢ | 0¢ | $-13 | $132 | 28/02/2026 |
| Dota 2: Aurora vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - DreamLeague Stage 2 | Aurora | 62.0¢ | 100¢ | +$38 | $62 | 27/02/2026 |
| Games Total: O/U 2.5 | Over | 62.5¢ | 100¢ | $-9 | $90 | 20/02/2026 |
| LoL: Natus Vincere vs Fnatic (BO3) - LEC Versus Playoffs | Natus Vincere | 47.0¢ | 100¢ | +$28 | $25 | 16/02/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET | Down | 47.4¢ | 0¢ | $-25 | $25 | 15/02/2026 |
| Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group A | FUT Esports | 47.3¢ | 0¢ | $-67 | $67 | 01/02/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? | No | 93.3¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | $94 | 31/01/2026 |
| US government shutdown Saturday? | No | 57.4¢ | 0¢ | $-83 | $320 | 31/01/2026 |
| Will there be 4-6 inches of snow in NYC this weekend? | Yes | 10.8¢ | 0¢ | $-22 | $22 | 26/01/2026 |
| Will there be 6-8 inches of snow in NYC this weekend? | Yes | 13.8¢ | 0¢ | $-22 | $22 | 26/01/2026 |
| Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025? | Yes | 38.5¢ | 0¢ | $-3 | $76 | 01/01/2026 |
| Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? | Yes | 73.0¢ | 100¢ | $-6 | $135 | 01/01/2026 |
| Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? | No | 53.0¢ | 100¢ | $-14 | $250 | 01/01/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2025? | Yes | 5.5¢ | 0¢ | $-22 | $22 | 01/01/2026 |
| WLFI market cap (FDV) >$16B one day after launch? | No | 11.2¢ | 0¢ | +$42 | $60 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Trump pardon Changpeng Zhao in 2025? | Yes | 52.2¢ | 100¢ | +$20 | $720 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? | Yes | 40.0¢ | 0¢ | +$3 | $140 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Trump pardon Changpeng Zhao in 2025? | No | 47.1¢ | 0¢ | $-5 | $192 | 31/12/2025 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? | Yes | 13.0¢ | 0¢ | $-8 | $100 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? | Yes | 5.4¢ | 0¢ | $-8 | $49 | 31/12/2025 |