mehanizator

Economy 67% +$39 $127 vol · 3 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?	Yes	3¢	0¢	$-13	loss
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?	Yes	0¢	0¢	+$48	win
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?	Yes	6¢	0¢	+$4	win

Culture 100% +$10 $92 vol · 3 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will "BEEF: Season 2" be the top global Netflix show this week?	No	94¢	98¢	+$0	win
Will Bad Bunny be the third most streamed Spotify artist for 2025?	Yes	0¢	0¢	+$1	win

Mentions 75% +$10 $1,130 vol · 19 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026?	Yes	95¢	100¢	+$2	win
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026?	No	96¢	100¢	+$0	win
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026?	No	88¢	100¢	$-0	loss
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026?	No	90¢	100¢	+$1	win
Will Ted Cruz post 80-99 posts from April 7 to April 14, 2026?	No	85¢	0¢	+$0	—
Will NYC Mayor post 20-39 posts from April 7 to April 14, 2026?	Yes	90¢	100¢	+$-0	—
Will Zelenskyy post 40-59 posts from April 3 to April 10, 2026?	Yes	90¢	100¢	+$0	win
Will CZ post 40-59 posts from April 3 to April 10, 2026?	Yes	92¢	100¢	$-0	loss
Will Khamenei post 20-24 posts from March 31 to April 7, 2026?	No	91¢	100¢	+$2	win
Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from March 31 to April 7, 2026?	No	91¢	100¢	+$0	win

Weather 92% $-17 $637 vol · 13 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will the highest temperature in London be between 68–69°F on May 19?	No	97¢	0¢	$-48	loss
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 67–68°F on May 19?	No	98¢	100¢	+$1	win
Will the highest temperature in London be between 67–68°F on May 18?	No	94¢	100¢	+$3	win
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 78°F or higher on May 18?	No	94¢	100¢	+$3	win
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78–79°F on May 17?	No	93¢	100¢	+$4	win
Will the highest temperature in London be between 70–71°F on May 17?	No	95¢	100¢	+$3	win
Will the highest temperature in London be between 73–74°F on May 16?	No	95¢	100¢	+$2	win
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76–77°F on May 16?	No	96¢	100¢	+$1	win
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 65°F or below on May 15?	No	93¢	100¢	+$3	win
Will the highest temperature in London be between 67–68°F on May 15?	No	97¢	100¢	+$2	win

Sports 60% $-36 $262 vol · 5 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Texas Rangers vs. Athletics	Athletics	24¢	0¢	$-12	loss
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (LOW) $90 Week of April 13 2026?	No	94¢	100¢	+$0	win
US Men's Clay Court Championships, Qualification: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Darwin Blanch	Jack Pinnington Jones	79¢	100¢	+$16	win
US Men's Clay Court Championships, Qualification: Liam Draxl vs Alexis Galarneau	Liam Draxl	71¢	100¢	+$14	win
Will annual inflation increase by 2.3% in January?	Yes	15¢	0¢	$-55	loss

Tech 50% $-53 $462 vol · 9 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	Yes	9¢	4¢	+$13	win
GPT-5.5 released by April 23, 2026?	Yes	82¢	82¢	+$0	—
ChatGPT Outage by April 10?	Yes	24¢	100¢	$-21	loss
Will Apple (AAPL) finish week of March 9 above $260?	No	91¢	100¢	+$2	win
Will "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" be said at the 83rd Golden Globes?	Yes	65¢	0¢	$-17	loss
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31?	Yes	2¢	0¢	+$12	win
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on November 30?	Yes	4¢	0¢	+$45	win
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on April 30?	Yes	18¢	0¢	$-27	loss
Will Google have the top AI model on April 30?	No	35¢	0¢	$-60	loss

Finance 25% $-72 $868 vol · 13 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Morgan Stanley (MS) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	92¢	100¢	+$-0	—
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 19?	Down	82¢	100¢	$-1	loss
Will AGI Inc.'s market cap be between $3.00B and $3.25B at market close on IPO day?	No	97¢	100¢	$-16	loss
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on February 11?	Up	69¢	0¢	$-1	loss
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on February 11?	Down	36¢	100¢	$-3	loss
Will SpyGlass Pharma, Inc.'s market cap be between $550M and $600M at market close on IPO day?	Yes	26¢	0¢	$-6	loss
Will SpyGlass Pharma, Inc.'s market cap be between $550M and $600M at market close on IPO day?	No	74¢	100¢	$-13	loss
10-year Treasury yield >4.4% Friday?	Yes	88¢	100¢	$-17	loss

Crypto 77% $-74 $11,031 vol · 150 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Over 4 coins launched in 2026 end the year in the top 100?	Yes	38¢	66¢	+$5	win
Over 4 coins launched in 2026 end the year in the top 100?	No	50¢	34¢	$-18	loss
Will Silver hit 100 or Bitcoin hit 100k first?	Bitcoin	66¢	0¢	$-1	loss
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?	Yes	35¢	36¢	+$2	win
Will "Something Very Bad Is Going to Happen: Season 1" be the top US Netflix show this week?	No	96¢	100¢	+$3	win
Solana Up or Down - February 20, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET	Up	49¢	100¢	+$7	win
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET	Down	71¢	100¢	+$3	win
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET	Down	90¢	100¢	+$1	win
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET	Down	69¢	100¢	+$1	win
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET	Up	36¢	0¢	$-5	loss

Other 48% $-172 $6,845 vol · 73 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Kinetiq FDV above $1B one day after launch?	Yes	0¢	0¢	+$11	win
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	1¢	0¢	+$3	win
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Hungary before 2027?	Yes	4¢	1¢	+$1	win
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?	No	38¢	36¢	$-6	loss
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?	Yes	65¢	64¢	$-15	loss
Will Vladimir Putin be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	1¢	0¢	$-36	loss
Will Eric Swalwell drop out before California primary?	Yes	92¢	100¢	+$0	win
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by June 30, 2026?	Yes	8¢	5¢	+$18	win
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1?	No	36¢	100¢	$-2	loss
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1?	Yes	67¢	0¢	$-2	loss

Politics 47% $-177 $7,049 vol · 56 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together before 2027?	Yes	14¢	15¢	+$12	win
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	11¢	10¢	$-190	loss
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	Yes	3¢	3¢	+$9	win
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Russia?	Yes	2¢	1¢	+$50	win
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 15, 2026?	No	92¢	100¢	+$1	win
Will Trump talk to Mohammed bin Salman in April?	Yes	85¢	80¢	$-2	loss
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?	Yes	16¢	14¢	$-37	loss
Trump announces Attorney General pick by April 17, 2026?	No	91¢	100¢	+$0	—
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026?	No	85¢	100¢	+$0	—
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026?	Yes	95¢	100¢	$-0	loss

Esports 40% $-183 $1,242 vol · 10 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Valorant: Team Secret vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Pacific Group Alpha	Team Secret	12¢	0¢	$-45	loss
Valorant: FUT Esports vs Team Liquid (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Alpha	Team Liquid	17¢	0¢	$-152	loss
Valorant: Karmine Corp vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Alpha	Team Heretics	24¢	100¢	+$18	win
Valorant: BBL Esports vs GIANTX (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Omega	GIANTX	43¢	100¢	+$5	win
Valorant: All Gamers vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - VCT China Group Alpha	All Gamers	84¢	100¢	+$1	win
LoL: Team Liquid vs FlyQuest (BO3) - Esports World Cup North America Qualifier Playoffs	FlyQuest	75¢	100¢	+$0	win
LoL: Team Liquid vs FlyQuest (BO3) - Esports World Cup North America Qualifier Playoffs	Team Liquid	17¢	0¢	$-4	loss
LoL: Solary vs Misa Esports (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs	Misa Esports	58¢	0¢	$-0	loss
LoL: Solary vs Misa Esports (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs	Solary	38¢	100¢	$-3	loss
Valorant: 100 Thieves vs Evil Geniuses (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Omega	Evil Geniuses	25¢	0¢	$-3	loss

Elections 58% $-203 $3,094 vol · 30 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Rumen Radev be the next prime minister of Bulgaria after the 2026 parliamentary election?	Yes	90¢	93¢	$-0	loss
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 12-15%?	No	10¢	0¢	+$1	win
Will Renovación Popular (RP) win the most seats in the 2026 Peruvian Chamber of Deputies election?	No	88¢	100¢	+$1	win
Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be between 75% and 80%?	No	79¢	98¢	+$1	win
Will Alianza para el Progreso (APP) win the most seats in the 2026 Peruvian Senate election?	No	95¢	100¢	+$0	—
Will Fidesz-KDNP win <36% of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election?	No	88¢	100¢	+$0	—
Will voter turnout be 74–77% in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?	No	92¢	100¢	+$0	win
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 12-15%?	Yes	86¢	100¢	+$0	win
Will Tisza win 110–119 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?	No	90¢	100¢	$-8	loss
Will Rafael López Aliaga and Keiko Fujimori advance to the runoff?	Yes	81¢	18¢	+$0	win

Geopolitics 48% $-1,494 $23,328 vol · 108 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	42¢	33¢	$-27	loss
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	66¢	80¢	+$3	win
Will the US strike Iran next?	No	74¢	100¢	+$2	win
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	No	11¢	0¢	+$2	win
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?	No	85¢	90¢	+$0	win
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	10¢	9¢	$-8	loss
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	53¢	36¢	$-36	loss
Iran nuclear test before 2027?	Yes	8¢	8¢	$-2	loss
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	21¢	20¢	+$4	win
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?	Yes	6¢	6¢	+$5	win