calm.rabbit

Other 69% +$8,438 $118,396 vol · 260 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	42¢	40¢	$-2	loss
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X?	No	61¢	68¢	+$149	win
Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker?	Yes	51¢	60¢	+$67	win
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.1m barrels per day in 2026?	No	26¢	32¢	+$25	win
Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch?	No	50¢	100¢	$-9	loss
Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	55¢	0¢	$-11	loss
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	73¢	60¢	$-13	loss
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?	No	24¢	72¢	+$19	win
Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	No	49¢	62¢	+$10	win
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1500 by December 31?	No	5¢	0¢	$-11	loss

Geopolitics 74% +$7,573 $213,773 vol · 206 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	No	30¢	0¢	$-170	loss
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?	No	61¢	0¢	+$6	win
Iran Nuke before 2027?	No	86¢	90¢	+$1	win
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	No	32¢	0¢	$-106	loss
Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026?	Yes	47¢	20¢	$-27	loss
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	No	42¢	22¢	$-13	loss
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	Yes	74¢	100¢	+$20	win
US x Iran ceasefire before Oil hits $120?	Yes	37¢	100¢	+$64	win
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by June 30, 2026?	Yes	81¢	100¢	+$14	win
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	54¢	28¢	+$4	win

Crypto 54% +$1,227 $12,897 vol · 14 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Opinion launch a token by March 31, 2026?	No	14¢	0¢	$-8	loss
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	No	60¢	60¢	+$16	win
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?	No	71¢	78¢	+$56	win
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30?	No	92¢	98¢	+$13	win
Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31?	Yes	32¢	100¢	+$25	win
Blast Open Rotterdam 2026: Will a player break something during a game?	Yes	40¢	0¢	$-32	loss
Will Nebius say "Aether" during earnings call?	Yes	58¢	100¢	+$169	win
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?	No	47¢	52¢	+$0	—
Will another company be accused of insider trading?	Yes	21¢	0¢	$-126	loss
Will Meteora be accused of insider trading?	No	89¢	100¢	$-38	loss

Tech 60% +$519 $40,820 vol · 113 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will OpenAI announce earbuds or headphones in 2026?	No	13¢	60¢	+$60	win
GPT-5.5 released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	95¢	97¢	+$4	win
Meta "Mango" model released by March 31?	No	97¢	100¢	+$70	win
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	59¢	62¢	$-8	loss
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	20¢	22¢	+$6	win
Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026?	No	62¢	55¢	$-0	loss
Will OpenAI GPT score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?	No	37¢	46¢	+$26	win
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?	No	71¢	69¢	+$15	win
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 16, 2026?	Yes	34¢	0¢	+$95	win
Will Google have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	30¢	12¢	$-461	loss

Economy 67% +$301 $5,260 vol · 3 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Houthis successfully target shipping by March 31?	No	91¢	100¢	$-48	loss

Sports 60% +$255 $13,272 vol · 63 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	No	70¢	56¢	$-1	loss
Will Poland qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	35¢	0¢	$-34	loss
Will Lucas Pinheiro Braathen (BRA) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Alpine - Men's Slalom at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?	No	52¢	100¢	+$190	win
Will Bilibili Gaming Gaming win the LPL 2026 Split 1 playoffs?	Yes	51¢	100¢	+$29	win
Will Loic Meillard (SUI) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Alpine - Men's Slalom at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?	Yes	45¢	100¢	+$27	win
Will annual inflation increase by 2.3% in February?	Yes	14¢	0¢	$-7	loss
Will annual inflation increase by 2.5% in February?	No	64¢	100¢	+$7	win
Will Camille Rast (SUI) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Alpine - Women's Slalom at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?	Yes	19¢	0¢	$-116	loss
Will Korea win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Speed Skating ST - Women's 3000m Relay at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?	Yes	49¢	100¢	+$26	win
Will Johannes Lochner (GER) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Bobsled - 4 Man (Driver) at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?	Yes	69¢	100¢	+$20	win

Politics 78% +$117 $5,865 vol · 27 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?	No	57¢	57¢	+$8	win
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?	Yes	75¢	84¢	+$6	win
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?	Yes	28¢	64¢	+$6	win
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	Yes	78¢	40¢	$-84	loss
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April?	No	54¢	28¢	+$19	win
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 15, 2026?	No	90¢	100¢	$-2	loss
Will Trump say "April Fool" or "April Fool's" during Address to the Nation?	No	94¢	100¢	+$2	win
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?	No	81¢	100¢	+$8	win
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by March 31?	No	76¢	100¢	+$2	win
Trump announces new drug boat strike by March 14, 2026?	Yes	38¢	100¢	+$44	win

Elections 70% $-35 $4,916 vol · 10 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	32¢	37¢	+$14	win
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	18¢	18¢	+$8	win
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	No	90¢	75¢	$-98	loss
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	63¢	66¢	+$34	win
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in fourth place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	2¢	0¢	$-55	loss
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	72¢	77¢	+$107	win
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	No	26¢	23¢	+$20	win
Will Ricardo Belmont finish in fourth place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	No	66¢	99¢	+$40	win
Will Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami win the most seats in the Bangladesh parliamentary election?	No	74¢	100¢	+$4	win

Esports 65% $-72 $3,148 vol · 17 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
LoL: Gen.G vs G2 Esports - Game 2 Winner	G2 Esports	78¢	100¢	+$22	win
Will G2 Esports win the LEC 2026 Versus?	Yes	60¢	100¢	+$890	win
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Versus Playoffs	Karmine Corp	37¢	0¢	$-825	loss
Rocket League: Gentle Mates Alpine vs Team Falcons (BO7) - RLCS Major Boston Playoffs	Gentle Mates Alpine	98¢	100¢	+$1	win
Rocket League: Vitality vs NRG Esports (BO7) - RLCS Major Boston Playoffs	Vitality	99¢	100¢	+$1	win
Rocket League: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs PWR (BO5) - RLCS Major Boston Group A	Ninjas in Pyjamas	99¢	100¢	+$0	win
Rocket League: Karmine Corp vs Vitality (BO5) - RLCS Major Boston Group C	Vitality	99¢	100¢	+$0	win
LoL: Team WE vs LNG Esports (BO5) - LPL Knights Rivals	LNG Esports	46¢	0¢	$-123	loss
LoL: Team WE vs LNG Esports - Game 4 Winner	Team WE	78¢	100¢	+$1	win
Valorant: Team Vitality vs GIANTX (BO3) - VCT EMEA Kickoff Playoffs	Team Vitality	85¢	100¢	+$0	win

Culture 0% $-124 $218 vol · 4 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will "Undertone" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 10m?	No	100¢	100¢	+$0	—
Will "Undertone" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 10m?	Yes	44¢	0¢	$-48	loss
Will "How to Make a Killing" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 3.5m?	No	36¢	0¢	$-36	loss
Will "How to Make a Killing" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 3.5m and 5m?	Yes	40¢	0¢	$-40	loss

Finance 56% $-450 $842 vol · 9 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027?	No	50¢	5¢	$-205	loss
Will Lovable announce bankruptcy before 2027?	No	71¢	90¢	+$10	win
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026?	Yes	62¢	70¢	+$5	win
Will Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by February 28, 2026?	No	77¢	100¢	+$0	win
Will Nebius say "ClickHouse" or "Click House" during earnings call?	No	23¢	0¢	$-23	loss
Will Nebius say "TripleTen" or "Triple Ten" during earnings call?	Yes	39¢	0¢	$-165	loss
Will Robinhood say "Silver" during earnings call?	No	70¢	100¢	+$11	win
Will Coca-Cola say "Dairy" during earnings call?	Yes	89¢	100¢	+$8	win