Win rate
37.9%
11 W / 18 L
Total PnL
$-255
realized $-1,767 · unrealized $1,512
Portfolio
$1,512
volume $100,211
Predictions
29
0.8/day · avg $3,456
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 19/02/2026 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | no |
Category breakdown
Other 100% +$28
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30? | No | 63¢ | 96¢ | +$28 | win |
Elections 0% $-7
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Yes | 44¢ | 43¢ | $-7 | loss |
Geopolitics 37% $-727
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes | 42¢ | 22¢ | $-476 | loss |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | No | 34¢ | 0¢ | $-285 | loss |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | Yes | 20¢ | 28¢ | +$182 | win |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? | Yes | 17¢ | 3¢ | $-16 | loss |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? | No | 48¢ | 46¢ | $-14 | loss |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | No | 65¢ | 0¢ | $-377 | loss |
| Israel military action against Yemen by April 15, 2026? | No | 49¢ | 100¢ | +$336 | win |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 4¢ | 0¢ | +$26 | win |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | Yes | 5¢ | 100¢ | $-41 | loss |
| Houthi strike on Israel by March 6, 2026? | Yes | 20¢ | 0¢ | $-26 | loss |
Recent Trades (29)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel military action against Yemen by April 15, 2026? | No | 49.3¢ | 100¢ | +$336 | $1,007 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 4.4¢ | 0¢ | +$26 | $52 | 15/04/2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? | Yes | 7.9¢ | 0¢ | $-6 | $61 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | No | 75.8¢ | 100¢ | $-18 | $100 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? | No | 9.8¢ | 0¢ | $-51 | $64 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | No | 64.6¢ | 0¢ | $-377 | $5,423 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | Yes | 5.4¢ | 100¢ | $-41 | $69 | 07/04/2026 |
| Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026? | No | 51.0¢ | 100¢ | +$433 | $468 | 31/03/2026 |
| Houthi strike on Israel by March 15, 2026? | Yes | 31.5¢ | 0¢ | +$11 | $99 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? | Yes | 13.1¢ | 0¢ | $-4 | $50 | 31/03/2026 |
| Houthi strike on Israel by March 6, 2026? | Yes | 20.2¢ | 0¢ | $-26 | $100 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? | Yes | 2.6¢ | 0¢ | $-36 | $55 | 31/03/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | Yes | 16.0¢ | 100¢ | +$25 | $420 | 31/01/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? | No | 92.1¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | $549 | 31/01/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | No | 88.0¢ | 0¢ | $-589 | $589 | 31/01/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? | No | 72.3¢ | 100¢ | +$604 | $4,871 | 01/01/1970 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? | No | 92.0¢ | 100¢ | +$121 | $3,205 | 01/01/1970 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by March 6? | No | 92.8¢ | 100¢ | +$120 | $1,548 | 01/01/1970 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? | No | 67.0¢ | 0¢ | $-126 | $500 | 01/01/1970 |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? | No | 47.7¢ | 46¢ | $-14 | $500 | 30/04/2026 |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30? | No | 63.1¢ | 96¢ | +$28 | $100 | 30/04/2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? | Yes | 17.2¢ | 3¢ | $-16 | $64 | 30/04/2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? | Yes | 15.0¢ | 8¢ | $-25 | $74 | 31/05/2026 |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | Yes | 19.5¢ | 28¢ | +$182 | $469 | 31/05/2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | Yes | 18.2¢ | 10¢ | $-67 | $158 | 30/06/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | No | 33.9¢ | 0¢ | $-285 | $1,449 | 30/06/2026 |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Yes | 43.8¢ | 43¢ | $-7 | $950 | 31/12/2026 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes | 17.0¢ | 22¢ | $-444 | $1,012 | 31/12/2026 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes | 41.9¢ | 22¢ | $-476 | $2,247 | 31/12/2026 |